The most dangerous position for a Republican is to be popular, but not named Trump.
Such is the case for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is having a moment. Just one year ago, he was being blamed for dangerous Spring Break behavior in Miami, while Democratic governors like Andrew Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer, and Gavin Newsom were being hailed as responsible leaders. One year later, their fortunes have reversed. The “lockdown” governors have all been plagued with scandals and/or COVID-19 surges, while DeSantis’s approval rating in Florida has shot up since it hit its COVID nadir. Meanwhile, he is garnering considerable national buzz and leads the 2024 Republican field in several statewide and national surveys.
His popularity stems in large part from proving the media wrong. Now, I suspect he got lucky in this regard. COVID turned out to be airborne, and Florida (a warm state that is not densely populated) was uniquely positioned for success. Still, DeSantis’s decision to reopen Florida’s economy turned out to be the smart bet. What is more, the 60 Minutes’ botched hit on him was a gift served up on a silver platter. It was exactly what anyone aspiring to inherit the GOP mantle from Trump might want.
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New York Times columnist Ross Douthat recently wrote that DeSantis is the GOP’s 2020 “autopsy,” since Trump’s refusal to acknowledge his loss precludes any possibility of the party actually conducting one, and I think he’s right. Republicans want someone combative and Trumpy, just more sane and competent than Trump. And it helps that DeSantis—a former Congressman, who graduated from Yale and Harvard Law School, and was a JAG Officer in the U.S. Navy—is a relatively fresh face, which is to say he was not fully co-opted or emasculated by Trump like so many of the other GOP contenders.
The point is, DeSantis is riding high. He better enjoy this moment while he can. For one thing, he has to strike while the iron is hot (a lesson he learned from former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, when he decided not to seek the presidency in 2012), but the question is, how long can an iron stay hot? Republicans won’t start casting primary ballots for something like 1,000 days. Is DeSantis peaking too soon?
Life moves pretty fast. Just ask Christie, whose 70 percent approval rating plummeted to 15 percent in a similar timespan, thanks (in large part) to the “Bridgegate” scandal.
Between now and the 2024 presidential election, DeSantis also has to win re-election, which could be more problematic than you might think. Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who would garner significant progressive support, is “very close” to running against him.
It’s also worth noting that DeSantis was tight with embattled Rep. Matt Gaetz (in fact, Gaetz helped lead his transition effort). And according to the Orlando Sentinel, Florida hand doctor Jason Pirozzolo, who is reportedly being investigated for sex trafficking in relation to a trip he took with Gaetz, “personally flew future Gov. Ron DeSantis around the state.” There’s no reason to believe DeSantis was involved in anything untoward, but this still presents a potential challenge.
DeSantis also just signed what’s been described as a “controversial ‘anti-riot’ bill” into law that (among other things) “grants civil legal immunity to people who drive through protesters blocking a road.”
All of this would be hard enough to navigate were it not for the elephant in the room: Donald Trump. DeSantis doesn’t just have to share a party with him, he has to share a state with him, which makes it dramatically harder to avoid either looking like Trump’s puppet or clashing over turf. Either extreme could be politically fatal.
And what happens if DeSantis is actually able to shine in spite of all that? “If you start to become the guy who is the obvious frontrunner,” Never Trump conservative Sarah Longwell asked on the Bulwark podcast, “is that a good thing?” That is, “Are you being groomed as Trump’s vice president when he runs again in 2024—or should you hire someone to taste your food, because the more popular you get, the more Trump decides he wants to go after you?”
DeSantis is caught between a rock and a hard place.
At any point, DeSantis’s ambitions could be crushed on a whim by a capricious Donald Trump. Sometimes it’s best to fly under the radar. DeSantis is doing the opposite, and he might be personified by the proverb that says, “The nail that sticks out will be hammered down.”
And here’s the weird thing. Maybe we should root for the guy. Once upon a time, DeSantis was a mainstream, small-government Republican. And there’s always hope that he might be one again someday. The GOP could do (and has done!) worse.
