Whoever said, “Winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing,” never ran against Donald Trump in a Republican primary.
Ron DeSantis may learn this lesson soon enough. While speaking at the Basque Fry, a barbecue fundraiser in the early caucus state of Nevada this past weekend, the Florida governor signaled his belief that the electability argument will resonate. DeSantis reiterated that “We’ve developed a culture of losing in this party,” adding, “You’re not going to get a mulligan on the 2024 election.”
For those keeping score, this is part of his stump speech. DeSantis used the same phrase last month in Iowa. And when Trump and his supporters were mocking DeSantis for not knowing how to pronounce his own name, DeSantis said it was pronounced “Winner.”
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But is DeSantis actually more electable? And—more to the point—does it even matter to Republican primary voters and should it?
I believe there is such a thing as a culture of losing, and the GOP has certainly embraced it.
In sports, if a team is in a horrible slump, the first thing you usually do is fire the manager or bench the quarterback. Likewise, toxic athletes—regardless of their talent—sometimes get tagged as “clubhouse cancers.” This is a nod to the fact that, when it comes to putting up wins and losses, culture matters.
Donald Trump is the GOP’s clubhouse cancer. But then again, there are no Republican “owners” or “head coaches” capable of firing this Republican frontrunner.
Trump’s record of losing is hard to deny. He lost the popular vote in 2016. Republicans lost the midterms in 2018. In 2020, Trump lost re-election and Republicans lost the Senate. More recently, Republicans (thanks largely to Trump) wildly underperformed in the 2022 midterms. Less appreciated is the toll Trump’s presidency took on governorships and state legislatures.
Still, despite Trump’s dubious record, it’s unlikely that Republican voters will be moved by DeSantis’s “electability” argument.
First, the electability argument has already failed once.
Consider this report from Dec. 2015: “In a hypothetical general election matchup, Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton would beat businessman Donald Trump, according to NBC-Wall Street Journal poll results released today. But that same poll puts the former secretary of state in a tight race with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson.”
That’s right. After eight years of enduring Barack Obama’s presidency, Republican voters still weren’t willing to prioritize electability over what Trump was selling (excitement, passion, and anger) to stop Hillary Clinton.
The voters either didn’t care or they didn’t believe the so-called experts (the media or the polls). They fell in love, not in line. And thanks to the electoral college, it paid off. Why would they change now?
Second, despite numerous election losses, two impeachments, and (so far) two indictments, Republicans still perceive Trump as a consummate winner.
This perception is not solely, or even primarily, based on their belief that Trump actually won the 2020 election. It is mainly because Trump has spent decades assiduously cultivating his image as a winner—a PR ruse aided and partially funded by NBC’s The Apprentice.
Trump’s ability to survive the Access Hollywood scandal in 2016 only cemented the impression that he is magical. Trump’s winning image is so indelible that no additional information or logic will shake this ingrained impression. He comes off as a winner to his base, despite the actual reality of his loser status.
Republican voters have also redefined what winning looks like. To them, winning isn’t getting to govern; it’s looking like a winner. Nor is it directly tied to policy victories; it’s about winning the culture, winning the argument, and owning the libs.
Third, when it comes to electability, the contrast between DeSantis and Trump is not stark enough to matter, even if Republican voters actually cared.
It’s true that DeSantis won reelection in a landslide in 2022, while Trump’s endorsed candidates went down in flames. And current polls seem to suggest DeSantis would fare slightly better than Trump against Biden.
But that’s the problem. The difference is slim, and nobody is going to kick Trump to the curb for a guy they like less who only has a slightly better chance of winning—according to the corporate media.
Truth be told, I’m not even sure DeSantis actually has a better chance of defeating Joe Biden. He’s caught in a Catch-22. DeSantis believes he has to do and say things to defeat Trump that would make it harder to defeat Biden in a general election.
DeSantis’ attempts to run to Trump’s right—signing a six-week abortion ban in Florida, for example—may open him up to attacks reminiscent of the “war on women” hits that Mitt Romney endured as the 2012 GOP candidate.
We are left with the reality that one of DeSantis’ central premises is clearly unlikely to move voters, and may not even be true.
Maybe it’ll help with donors and elites, but it’s not going to matter to the GOP primary electorate.
He’s gonna need a bigger reason.
