Russia Ratchets Up Panic as Civilians Told to Leave Kherson

Russia has ordered civilians in Kherson, Ukraine, to evacuate, as Ukrainian forces continue to grind out battlefield gains.

According to the Associated Press, Kremlin-backed officials have told residents to use “boat crossings over a major river to move deeper into Russian-held territory.” Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, have raised alarms about whether civilians are being “forced” to take residence in areas controlled by Russia—for strategic rather than humanitarian purposes. Russia has disputed those claims.

The Ukrainian military is working to retake Kherson, which the country lost soon after the conflict began in February. At the time, Russia was expected to quickly dominate Ukraine’s defenses, but fighting has dragged on for eight months, and Russia’s military has appeared disorganized and under-supplied.

In September, Russian president Vladimir Putin was forced to order a partial mobilization to replenish his country’s troops.

In a statement to the AP, Oleh Zhdanov, a Ukrainian military expert, insisted that time is on Ukraine’s side. “[It] just needs to wait until Kherson falls into its hands like a ripe apple, because the situation with supplies for the Russian group of forces keeps exacerbating by the day,” he said.

Zhdanov added that recapturing Kherson—a key area for controlling water access in Crimea, the peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014—would turn the Kremlin’s ambitions of conquering more of Ukraine’s south “into dust.”

“Kherson is a key to the entire southern region, which would allow Ukraine to target key supply routes for the Russian forces. Russians will try to retain control of it using all means,” he said.

Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Penta Center for Political Studies in Kyiv, also told the AP that if Russia loses the city, “Putin will face reputational losses not only inside the country, but also in the eyes of China, and that could be particularly dangerous for the Kremlin.”

By virtue of its importance, some analysts have expressed concern that Russia may try to destroy Kherson instead of surrendering it, including by blowing up a major dam. Russian officials have sought to preemptively blame Ukrainian forces for targeting the dam as part of their counteroffensive.

As the fighting continues, Ukraine continues to fend off Russian missiles and suicide drones, which have caused substantial damage in recent weeks. And analysts are keeping a close eye on Belarus, where Putin is amassing thousands of soldiers, raising concerns about whether the conflict will further expand.