As soon as 2050, ships will be able to sail directly across what is known as the “northern route,” cutting through what used to be solid ice as late-summer Arctic sea ice disappears. Russian icebreakers and other fortified ships have already been taking the shortcut: a total of 46 ships took the northern route in 2012, mostly escorted by icebreakers. But in less than 40 years, according to a study published this week, regular ships will be able to make the trip easily, and slightly fortified ships will be able to take a super-fast route directly across. The shortcut will enormously cut the costs of trade between Europe and China, which will open the floodgates for even more potentially devastating economic activity.