Vladimir Putin says Russia is ordering a “partial” drawdown of troops, but satellites overhead are offering a much more mixed picture of the massive Russian military buildup now menacing Ukraine.
Photos taken by the commercial imaging company Planet showed that Russian troops have built a pontoon bridge on Tuesday across the Pripyat river near the Russia-Belarus border. It’s situated near the exclusion zone surrounding the damaged nuclear reactor at Chernobyl in Ukraine, the scene of a 1986 reactor meltdown.
The imagery comes as Ukraine and NATO countries remain on edge amidst mixed signals about a Russian military buildup on a scale not seen in decades. U.S. intelligence has repeatedly warned that, if ordered to, Russian forces would be in an optimal position to launch an invasion of Ukraine as early as Wednesday.
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In the event of a Russian invasion, analysts fear the bridge could be one of many potential routes for Russian forces currently deployed to Belarus for military exercises to make their way further into Ukrainian territory.
Russian military scholar Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, identified Russian engineering units and pontoon equipment entering Belarus in early February. Belarus’ Ministry of Defense authorities announced late last week that Russian military units have practiced “crossing a water barrier” across the Pripyat River.
The bridge isn’t the only potential Russian threat captured by satellites this week. While some photographs have shown at least some thinning of Russian military gear in occupied Crimea, images taken elsewhere in the territory show Moscow has expanded its footprint.
Satellite imagery provided by Capella Space and analyzed by Hawkeye 360's Chris Biggers shows a new motor pool, 19 new helicopters, and an expanded camp for likely new arrivals at a Russian military facility in Oktyabrskoye in Russian-occupied Crimea.
Capella Space:Analysis by Chris Biggers
On Tuesday, the satellite firm Capella Space captured synthetic aperture radar imagery taken of the Russian Oktyabrskoye airbase in Crimea. Images of the base taken by Capella Space, and reviewed by HawkEye 360’s mission applications director and imagery expert Chris Biggers, show the likely relocation of Russian equipment, including a new motor pool, an expanded camp for local personnel, and 19 new helicopters.
Moscow appears to be sticking to its official line on a partial pull-out. Russian defense ministry officials distributed photos purporting to show Russian armored vehicles loaded onto trains en route back to Russia from Bakhchysarai, in Russian-occupied Crimea. In a post to the ministry’s website, defense officials said that units from Russia's southern military district, which is responsible for military operations in Crimea, “completed their tasks as part of the planned tactical exercises” and “began to return to their permanent deployment points in the morning.”
Though satellite imagery provided by Capella Space appears to show that at least some Russian military facilities in the Ukrainian territory have emptied out, it’s unclear where that equipment is headed.
“Bakhchysarai previously had a brigade-level deployment of tanks, self-propelled howitzers, and armored personnel carriers,” Biggers told The Daily Beast. “Video posted to TikTok earlier in the week showed elements in a nearby field. As of February 15, those and previously parked elements have likely been loaded at the nearby railway transfer point for relocation. It’s currently uncertain as to where.”
