Steve Kornacki, the political data guru and broadcaster best known for his election night coverage on MSNBC, is “cautiously optimistic” that this year’s election will be called much quicker than in 2020.
“It’s gonna be quicker, maybe significantly quicker,” Kornacki said on Pod Save America.
Kornacki cited the decrease in mail-in voting and changes in vote counting procedures from 2020 as ways to speed up the process. “Others that haven’t even changed the procedures, at least they have more experience with it now,” he said.
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The polls in swing states have been in near deadlock—neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has been able to pull out of the margin of error.
So even though Kornacki is known for his marathon of polling analysis on election night, he says he’s carving a few hours out of the day to take a walk and clear his head while early voter returns come in.
“The more confidently somebody’s asserting they see something in the polls or the early vote, the more skeptical I become,” Kornacki said.
Even though the polls were famously wrong in 2016, and off in 2020 as well, Kornacki said he’s “cautiously optimistic” too about this election’s polling accuracy.
“I always try to tell people, if the polling has Harris up one in Michigan and Trump wins by two, that’s not actually a polling error, that is within the range of expected outcomes,” he said. Kornacki added that pollsters have changed their methodology to try and better reach Trump supporters, who were undercounted in the last two races.
Kornacki and Pod Save America’s host, Dan Pfieffer, also went in-depth on which swing state counties to watch on election night and pointed out key demographics Harris needs to keep— like black men in Georgia and North Carolina.
Kornacki said Harris also needed to hold onto major victories in cities to clinch the overall state. “Milwaukee, again, very similar to what we talked about with Detroit and Philadelphia,” Kornacki said. “You know Trump showed signs of inroads there in 2020.” Kornacki added that if Harris loses points with demographics that have long been Democratic strongholds—such as Latinos—she needs to make it up elsewhere with a different demographic.
Kornacki also touched on Congressional returns, saying that the balance of the House won’t be known for a while.
“It could be election month if we’re waiting on them,” Kornacki said.
But he pointed out key races that could determine control of the Senate, like incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s race in Ohio.
“If Brown doesn’t hang on, then Democrats have to pull a rabbit out of the hat somewhere. It’ll be clear if there’s any chance for them to do that in Texas, I think pretty early,” he said.
Find The Daily Beast’s coverage of the 2024 election here. Subscribe to The New Abnormal on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher, Amazon Music, or Overcast.
