The state of Maine followed Colorado’s lead on Thursday by blocking Donald Trump from appearing on the state’s U.S. presidential primary ballot. Once again, I believe that this attempt to disqualify Donald Trump is more likely to backfire than it is to work.
My warning won’t stop more Democratic officials in blue states from trying to disqualify Trump based on section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, which bars people who have taken an oath to defend the Constitution, and then engaged in an insurrection, from holding public office.
As I noted on Friday’s edition of MSNBC’s Morning Joe, not only am I not “just a country lawyer,” I’m not a lawyer period. Still, I’ve listened to enough experts on both sides of the subject to know that while it is plausible to say that Trump fits the legal definition for disqualification, following through on it is by no means a slam dunk.
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It’s difficult for me to imagine the Supreme Court telling one of the two major political parties that their likely nominee can be kept off of the ballot in some states—all based on a vague section of the Constitution that could be interpreted in multiple ways (is Trump an “officer of the military,” what exactly is an “insurrection,” does someone have to have been convicted of committing insurrection to qualify, etc.?).
Now, it is possible I will be proven wrong. A provision that nobody has thought about for 150 years—a section that was meant to prevent former Confederates from holding office—will have become our deus ex machina. Trump will be finished, electorally, at least.
Of course, there would still be major backlash. The “deep state” will have stopped Trump by what will be perceived as undemocratic means. To his fans, he will have been proven right about Democrats and “stolen elections.” Trump will say that he would have won. He will become more of a hero. More of a victim. More of a martyr. It’s hard to predict where that mentality might lead (certainly nowhere good).
Again, though, the odds of Trump being kept off state ballots are very small.
Indeed, this latest attempt to stop Trump reeks of utter desperation. An invention born of necessity. That’s not to say that this strategy isn’t plausible; it is. Still, this is what you try when all other efforts have failed—impeaching and removing him, taking him down with indictments, and beating him fair and square in a primary and a general election.
If one believes that Trump is an existential threat, then it’s hard to blame his adversaries for trying every trick in the book. Their hope is to keep him from the White House where he is likely to be more dangerous the second time around. So what’s the harm in trying?
Let me explain.
In the face of criticism about his age and the economy, Joe Biden’s best hope is to make this election about defending liberal democracy. But as you have probably seen, Trump (a master at projection) has even had the audacity to say that Biden is the real threat to democracy.
Now, this claim sounds absurd to most of us, but consider the response from Trump’s campaign spokesman, Steven Cheung, after Maine removed Trump from the ballot: “We are witnessing, in real-time, the attempted theft of an election and the disenfranchisement of the American voter.”
Trump breaks the norms and says and does outrageous things, and then he accuses the people trying to hold him accountable and prevent disaster of doing the same thing. But imagine how attempting to keep Trump off the ballot looks to average conservative Americans who already circled the wagons around Trump the moment the first indictment dropped.
The notion of keeping a major candidate that you want to vote for off of the ballot feels patently un-American, regardless of what the Constitution might say.
To a sizable part of the country, the party trying to undermine democracy is the Democrats. And fair or not, they are feeding into this narrative.
So what should they do, you might ask, just give up? Just let Trump attempt coups with impunity?
I’m for the rule of law and due process. If the Supreme Court determines that Trump can be kept off of state ballots, I will support that decision and even delight in the outcome. Likewise, I believe that Trump should be held accountable for crimes he may have committed, and as it pertains to his indictments, I do not think that running for president should serve as a get-out-of-jail-free card.
It would be a mistake for anyone to rest on their laurels and hope that somehow our system will prevent Trump from becoming president again. The American people tend to get their way. And if they want to stop Trump (and Trumpism), they will have to do it at the ballot box.
