President Donald Trump is insisting a deal over the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.
But a former U.S. diplomat says any agreement involving Iran is unlikely to deliver the political win the president is hoping for.
Speaking to reporters in Los Angeles on Tuesday night, Trump, 80, said an agreement over the strategic waterway could come within days as negotiations involving the U.S., Iran and Oman appeared to gather pace.
“It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day,” Trump said when asked about reports that an announcement was imminent. Talks with Iran are “moving along very nicely,” the president added. “We’ll know in 48 hours.”
Axios initially reported that the U.S., Iran and Oman are preparing to announce a 60-day agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as Wednesday. Under the reported proposal, ships entering the strait would use a northern lane near Iran, while outbound vessels would be routed through Omani waters in coordination with Tehran. Axios said the temporary arrangement would not include any tolls or transit fees.
But even if a deal is reached, former U.S. officials told the Financial Times it would represent a far cry from the administration’s original objectives after Trump launched military action against Iran in February. The war, which Trump promised would last “a few weeks,” has so far claimed the lives of 18 U.S. service members with hundreds of others wounded.
The White House’s immediate demands have narrowed from Iran’s nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile program and support for proxy groups to restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which about a fifth of global oil supplies normally flow, the newspaper reported.
Michael Ratney, who served as U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia under former President Joe Biden, said Trump has now been left with “limited options” as U.S. stockpiles of missile interceptors dwindle, and while the American public and U.S. allies grow exhausted.
“Escalating further risks serious damage being done to regional parties, oil prices going up and harm to the global energy market,” Ratney said.
He warned that any agreement allowing “some measure of Iranian control” over the strait would be “aggravating for everybody.”
“Trump’s challenge is not just how to fight the war, which seems to have stumped him, but how to explain this deal,” Ratney said. Selling any agreement as a win was becoming “harder and harder to do,” he added.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East peace negotiator who served Republican and Democratic administrations, also questioned whether Trump could secure a meaningful diplomatic victory.
“What was once free and unfettered is no longer,” Miller said. “And there is almost nothing that Trump can extract from an agreement that the Iranians are willing to accept that changes that reality.”
“I do not see right now a way to create a balance of interests where the Trump administration walks away with something that normal humans would regard as a win,” Miller said.
The Strait of Hormuz was shuttered by Iran in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, sending oil prices soaring. But signs of progress from U.S. officials, Qatar and the negotiations themselves have helped ease pressure on oil markets, with Brent crude falling about 9 percent since the start of the week before trading just above $80 a barrel on Wednesday.
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
