Taiwan’s ‘Doomsday Drills’: A Chilling Glimpse of War With China

Across Taiwan, residents are preparing for attack.

From Monday through Thursday this week, Taiwan will be running a defense exercise simulating a Chinese air attack, preparing civilians for what to do if China invades. And from Monday through Friday, Taiwan will be running a live-fire exercise to test Taiwan’s combat readiness to respond to a Chinese invasion, according to the Ministry of National Defense.

Civilians will be required to shelter in place when the defense drill is underway, according to CNA. In some locales, drivers out on the streets will be asked to stop their cars and evacuate them, as will passengers on public transportation, bringing cities to a near standstill, according to Taipei’s Department of Transportation.

The entire drill is aimed at reducing casualties in the case of an attack from China, which has been growing increasingly aggressive towards Taiwan. Over the last few weeks, China has sent a record number of warships to waters surrounding Taiwan. According to American officials, the current U.S. government assessment is that Chinese President Xi Jinping is working to be prepared for conflict in either 2025 or 2027.

“Familiarity with the location of air raid shelters and procedures of evacuation will help improve the response time and survivability of individuals in the face of real threats,” Taipei City government said in a statement.

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To get civilians prepared for a Chinese invasion, branch leaders of civil defense corps subdivisions have been working with police to brush up on air raid exercises, evacuation guidelines and preparing emergency supplies and medical gear, according to Taipei City government.

Although China has been conducting practice runs of what it would be like to blockade Taiwan, with warships, jets, and an aircraft carrier, Taiwan is likely preparing for China to execute a different, more sudden, kind of attack, said Freddy Lim, a Taiwanese lawmaker.

“We think that China’s strategy must be how to quickly seize Taiwan and avoid foreign intervention,” Lim told The Daily Beast in an interview this week. “They want to do it quick.”

The key for Taiwan will be an abrupt thrust, according to Tony Hu, the first Pentagon senior country director for Taiwan.

“If China wants to take Taiwan, it must do it quickly and end it quickly and get Taiwan to surrender before foreign forces can arrive to help,” Hu said. “A blockade is not going to work… A blockade, which takes months to have its effects—to starve the people into surrender—it’s just not going to get them to where they want… They not only give foreign forces the opportunity to build up and then there’s zero chance of China winning a conflict over Taiwan.”

Part of the coming exercises is aimed at getting the people of Taiwan prepared for a Chinese invasion. But the other portion of the exercises is aimed at sending a message to China that invading Taiwan will be far too costly, according to Hu.

“It’s very important for the people on Taiwan to be resilient to be able to recover and survive the kind of attack that is expected from China. So it’s time for exercises, get people prepared to be ready just in case. The fact that the people is ready and prepared in and of itself is a deterrent too,” Hu told The Daily Beast.

“Hopefully the Communist Party, the leadership in the Communist Party, recognize the fact that Taiwan is not easy for you to get—it’s going to be a difficult battle for them to try to take Taiwan,” Hu added.

Taiwan is working to obtain National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) from the United States to prepare to defend Taiwan, Taiwan’s defense minister said this week.

Conversations in the U.S. Congress about sending Taiwan NASAMS are ongoing, The Daily Beast has learned.

“Our greatest priority in Asia must be ensuring Taiwan has the capabilities and training to deter Chinese aggression,” Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), the ranking member the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told The Daily Beast when asked about the NASAMS transfer conversations.

Taiwan still needs better intelligence-sharing cooperation with the United States, as well as long-range weapons, Lim, the Taiwanese legislator stressed. It also needs to continue to work on being prepared to withstand a first, second, third, and fourth wave of attacks from China, he said.

At this point, it’s not clear that China believes that it would lose if it attacked Taiwan, according to Lim.

“I don’t know” if China thinks it would lose, he admitted to The Daily Beast. “I think logically they should understand, especially when they see the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the response from the international communities and how resilient the Ukrainians show. Then they logically should know that it’s even more difficult to invade Taiwan from China and… they will face stronger resilience from Taiwanese people.”

Bolstering Taiwan’s defenses is likely not enough to prepare for a Chinese invasion, though. Several other elements of a strong defense from Taiwan would inevitably lean on the United States and other allies, and President Joe Biden has said U.S. forces would defend Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan.

If China attacks Taiwan and the United States moves to respond, that will almost certainly pull on U.S. troops stationed in Japan. But it’s not clear that Japan is as willing to jump in the fray, said Kevin Maher, the former head of the Office of Japan Affairs at the U.S. Department of State.

There could be a “two-pronged approach by China. One would be the direct action against Taiwan at the same time and attempt to neutralize the ability of the U.S. to flow armed forces or resupply out,” Maher told The Daily Beast. “At what point does Japan move beyond just cooperating with the U.S.… but also cooperating with the U.S. for defending Taiwan? That’s an evolving situation in Japan in the government thinking on that.”

Japan has renounced the use of force to settle international disputes since World War II. But some of Japan’s approach is changing: In 2015, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved a law that would enable Japan to respond militarily if an ally is attacked, raising resistance from some concerned about Japan falling into the crosshairs of other countries’ conflicts.

Preparing for the Worst

In a simulation hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the United States was able to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan—with support of Japan.

But in another wargame—which was organized by the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo—communication breakdowns between Japan, Taiwan, and the United States were glaring, according to Maher, who participated as a U.S. representative.

Fixing the lack of communications channels and combined operational planning in the coming years between Japan, Taiwan, and the United States, will be crucial to taking on China.

“There needs to be some type of mechanism for us to be talking to the Taiwanese. It’s obviously very politically sensitive because the Chinese would say: Well, you’re interfering in internal affairs,” he said.

Some of the latest aggressive moves from China, like the record number of warships, might be more about sending a message domestically, than about Beijing trying to take any dangerous steps toward Taiwan, according to Lim.

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“In one hand, China tried to fix the relationship with the U.S. But in the other hand, China doesn’t want to show that they are softer on the Taiwanese issue… they try to calm their own people,” he told The Daily Beast. “How to let their own people feel like when they are trying to fix the relationship with the international community, it doesn’t mean that they will been softer on Taiwan.”

Even so, Xi’s rhetoric in recent days has been alarming.

During a visit to the the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater, which faces Taiwan, in recent days, Xi called for “enhancing the planning of war and combat… and stepping up training under real combat conditions to raise the forces’ capabilities to fight and win.”

And while Xi’s orders on “planning war” might be more about sending a message to his own people, Taiwan can’t run the risk that Xi might decide to act on his threats.

“There is still a risk that he might make the wrong move. So that’s why I think that we should always prepare ourselves… how we strengthen our national defense, and how we strengthen our relationship with our allies,” Lim said. “That’s still the most important thing.”