In some ways, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg are an unlikely pair to be at odds: they have both used their bookish, personal approaches to politics to achieve surges of momentum in the Democratic primary. But as 2020 heads into overdrive less than 10 weeks before early voting commences, the two candidates have taken notable steps to distinguish themselves from each other over the past week. And it comes as Warren, the former Harvard Law School professor whose campaign slogan is to have a “plan” for many aspects of public governance, faces a polling challenge from Buttigieg, the multilingual Harvard alum who has taken a management consultant-style approach by pitching his policies as pragmatic.
While attempting to differentiate themselves along ideological lines (Warren has spent the majority of her candidacy promoting a broad anti-corruption platform, while Buttigieg has taken a more modest, and at times, corporate approach), the two Democrats pull from a similar supporter base of largely white, college educated voters, and have struggled to either catch on, or maintain, an economically and racially diverse coalition of supporters. And the tension between their campaigns, both vying to maintain their existing bases while each attempting to expand to new voters, has begun to bubble to the surface.
Over the past several days, the two have engaged in more direct confrontations, though still without naming the other specifically. The Daily Beast reported last month that the South Bend mayor has been subtly dinging his rivals to their annoyance, and it seems now the subtle phase is reaching an end. When a Bloomberg News reporter asked Warren about the possibility of releasing tax returns that extend to her years out of public service while she worked in the private sector, she responded by saying “my plan is to follow the same practices that were set up by Barack Obama and that is eight years of taxes.” Warren has gone a step further to release 11 years.
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Still, Buttigieg didn’t miss an opportunity to weigh in. “If we are going to defeat Donald Trump, we need a nominee who can credibly call out his corruption. That's why I've released my tax returns in both the public and private sectors. Any candidate who claims they can beat Trump should lead by example,” he wrote. Last week, Buttigieg released two additional years of his tax returns, which include the time he spent working at McKinsey, a private consulting firm.
When asked about Buttigieg’s remarks, Warren responded, without naming him. “I understand that there are some candidates who want to distract from the fact that they have not released the names of their clients,” she told reporters. “And their bundles.”
The back-and-forth is a microcosm of what voters might expect to see in the coming months on the campaign trail and as the sixth Democratic debate nears. A CNN poll released on Wednesday found support for Buttigieg among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents at 11 percent, up from 6 percent in their previous poll. Warren dropped 5 points between polls, from 19 percent in October to 14 percent in the November survey.
Biden and Sanders Are (Slowly) Climbing Nationally.
As the Warren and Buttigieg sparring match continues, the two other top-tier contenders, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are remaining steady in some surveys, and in others, on the rise. Biden is about to embark on an eight-day bus tour in hopes of turning his struggling operation in Iowa around. He has lost ground recently largely to Buttigieg, who’s skyrocketed there in a number of polls. But nationally, it’s a different story. In the Wednesday CNN poll, the former vice president earns 28 percent of support, followed by Sanders at 17 percent. The two men in their late 70s now top the first and second spots in national polling averages, with Biden earning 28.2 percent among aggregated surveys, and Sanders earning 17.8 percent.
Following his heart attack in early October, Sanders has made strides to get his campaign back near the top of the pack, including scoring the coveted progressive endorsement of freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). His campaign announced they recently reached 4 million individual donations this cycle, in part due to his small-donor model that allows voters to contribute in a recurring fashion. Both, along with Warren, and Buttigieg, have qualified for the December debate.
Will the DNC Change Anything in 2020?
The Democratic National Committee has a money burning problem that doesn’t appear to be improving in the months leading up to 2020. In October, the committee brought in $9 million, filings with the Federal Election Commission indicate, having started the month with $8.6 million on hand. The DNC finished the month with just $8.7 on hand, and $7 million in debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee fared better, raising $12 million in October, while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee only brought in $5.4 million, with $10 million in debt, during the same time.
While it the DNC’s $8.6 million sum was the best reported month of the year, it fell sharply below the Republican National Committee’s total, which brought in $25.3 million during the same month and spent $23 million. By the end of the month, the RNC had $61.4 million on hand.
Meanwhile, the party committee has for months focused on the logistics of the Democratic debates. The final debate of the year, taking place on Dec. 19 in Los Angeles, will be a barometer of where the field stands—at least optically—before heading into election year. So far, only six candidates have qualified: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN).
It’s unclear whether the DNC will change its requirements in 2020, which require candidates to have both 200,000 unique donors and either four polls with 4 percent support or two polls at 6 percent or more in at least one of the four early voting states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina. Any change to the individual donor requirement would likely benefit former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who announced a presidential bid on Sunday and has already dropped tens of millions of dollars on advertising. He has already signaled that he’s not likely to challenge the party committee’s current rules, telling reporters recently, “It is up to the DNC. They can set the rules. If they set the rules where I qualify, I would certainly debate. If they set the rules where I don’t qualify, then I won’t.”
