The relentless bombardment and languishing humanitarian crisis in Gaza has captivated the world's attention in the past month, prompting warnings among Ukrainian officials that Russia’s war—and its destabilizing actions around the globe—still need to remain front and center for the United States and other allies.
“It’s clear that the war in the Middle East, this conflict, is taking away the focus,” Ukrainian President Zelensky said earlier this month. “We have already been in very difficult situations when there was almost no focus on Ukraine.”
While the staggering body count in Israel’s war on Gaza surges, the Kremlin has been busy plotting its own spike of deadly attacks in Syria, where 66 civilians have been killed by Russian and Syrian government bombardment since October, according to Al-Jazeera.
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Russia has also been niggling Finland in recent days. Earlier this week, Finland’s prime minister claimed Russia has been helping migrants cross the border into Finland to stoke tensions in the region. Most of them are believed to be making the illegal crossing via bicycle.
Russia has also accused Poland of acting aggressively in recent days, issuing veiled threats against Warsaw. Poland deployed a tank battalion near its border with Belarus in recent weeks as part of its effort to thwart any Russian territorial ambitions in the region. The Kremlin accused Poland’s defensive move as a step towards “escalation,” warning that Belarus knows how to act in response.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also taken steps in recent days to further solidify his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. In the wake of Hamas’ attacks on Israel and Israel’s decision to bombard Gaza, Putin met with Xi in Beijing. After the meeting, Putin noted that “common threats” were bringing the two closer together.
Firing Off
In Ukraine, Russia has been raining down a “fiery hell” on Ukrainian armed forces who have gained a foothold on the Russian-held side of the Dnipro river, according to a Russian-installed official in Kherson.
Vladimir Saldo, the Moscow-installed head of Ukraine’s Kherson region, noted Wednesday on Telegram that Ukrainian forces are appearing in groups on the left bank of the river, claiming that their average time alive there is just about two days.
Ukraine was “for some time sending more manpower than our means of destruction were able to destroy,” Saldo said, adding that Russia is prepared to meet and fend off Ukrainian advances. “However, our additional forces have now been brought up.”
Ukraine had claimed Tuesday it had established a foothold on the eastern bank of the river. Saldo’s comments are the first time Russia has confirmed that Ukraine is making gains there.
Russia has been working to try to regain its momentum in Ukraine by running several offensive operations in Eastern Ukraine simultaneously, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
“The operational situation in east and south of Ukraine remains difficult,” the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement Wednesday.
Earlier this week, Kremlin forces fired three missiles in Zaporizhzhia, killing one and injuring seven others. Russian forces have also been growing more aggressive near Bakhmut, the site of a key tussle in Ukraine earlier this year. Adding to that, Moscow has conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, according to Ukrainian officials.
Putin has made several visits in recent weeks to the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov on Don, where he has met with his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov. There, Putin received briefings on the war and military equipment for the war, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
Russia announced it will be working to increase production of its 152mm Krasnopol-M2 laser-guided artillery munitions in a likely attempt to prepare for the winter months ahead and improve the munitions, according to a British intelligence assessment released earlier this week. Russia has been using the munitions to target Ukrainian vehicles.x
“As winter weather closes in, it is likely that Russia’s access to improved precision munitions will be one of the key factors in its operational performance in Ukraine,” the intelligence assessment stated.
Election Ploys
Domestically, Putin is likely preparing to announce his candidacy for president next month as part of an effort to secure his fifth term as president of Russia.
The Russian President has been taking steps to shore up his control of the election process. Putin approved changes to election laws earlier this week, introducing a step that will reduce transparency in the election process and give the Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) more control over elections. One such stipulation requires candidates to disclose any criminal records. Another would make it harder for journalists to cover the elections.
On the war front, Moscow has been entertaining the idea of adding more penalties for those who evade service. The Russian Federation Council, for instance, has been debating adding criminal penalties for those who either incite others to evade mobilization or for those who are reservists and evade mobilization, according to Kommersant.
