It was March 5, right before the Senateâs doomed vote to raise the minimum wage to $15, and, as usual, Sen. Joe Manchin was the center of attention.
But there was no need for reporters to swarm the West Virginia moderate. On that day, he was far from the only Democrat whoâd give the thumbs-down to a progressive priority. Seven other Democratic senators would vote the same wayâand draw far less recognition or criticism.
That tally surprised observers outside the U.S. Capitol building, but few within it.
Manchin may find himself nationally relevant, and widely loathed on the left, for his willingness to buck mainstream positions within the Democratic Party. But over the years, Senate insiders have developed a view that on the toughest and thorniest issues, Manchin isnât only speaking for himself; thereâs usually a handful of senators who agree with him, quietly, and are happy to let him take the heat.
Which senators are counted within this category changes based on the issue or vote at hand. The minimum wage vote provided a rare, clear look at how Manchin can be a tip of a Senate Democratic iceberg on a key issue.
But exactly whoâs aligned with him, even discreetly, on another consequential questionâwhether to end the legislative filibusterâis less clear. Only one other Democrat, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), has been as strident about keeping the Senateâs 60-vote threshold as Manchin. A handful of others, such as Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH), have sounded concerned notes or have avoided answering the question entirely.
Some Democrats look at that and argue that Manchin, who has defiantly insisted he will not gut the filibuster under any circumstances, is publicly voicing concerns that this group agrees with privately.
"There are other Democratic members who share his reservations about eliminating the filibuster,â said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), who strongly differs with Manchin on the issue. âPerhaps they're less outspoken, and perhaps less vehement."
Even staunch progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), desperate to see the filibuster go, understand that Manchin isnât alone in his support for a 60-vote threshold.
âItâs something of a symbiotic relationship,â Ocasio-Cortez told The Daily Beast on Wednesday. âThere are certainly more senators with reservations about the filibuster that are giving Manchin steam to stay firm. But I have also heard from colleagues that none of those other senators want to play Manchinâs role.â
Ocasio-Cortez continued that, if Manchin or Sinema folded, she believed those other senators would come around to eliminating the filibuster as well. âThat doesnât mean they shouldnât be pressed for their position and offer clarity to their constituents, though,â she said of the senators letting Manchin do the talking. âPeople deserve to know with clarity where their elected representation stands on the filibuster.â
Among those whose job it is to influence lawmakers, itâs widely understood that Manchin is almost never on an island. When Manchin speaks, said one lobbyist for a major D.C. firm, âeveryoneâs ears perk up.â
âHe represents not just a significant swing vote,â this lobbyist said. âHe represents a handful of the party.â
There is also a belief among both Democrats and Republicans that Manchinâs current status as a black hole of left-wing outrage and media attention spares these other senators from the same treatment. A Democratic aide told The Daily Beast in a May story on Manchin that a lot of members are âhappy Joe Manchin is the tip of the spear, getting shot at every day. Seven or eight of them stand behind him.â
A former colleague of Manchinâs, former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), put it another way recently. âHe is the heat shield for other members of the Senate that also are reluctant to blow up the protections the minority has from stopping bad stuff the other party wants,â she said on MSNBC on Tuesday.
That heat shield is especially valuable for senators facing tough elections in 2022. Take, for instance, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH). She voted with Manchin on the minimum wage and has been publicly cool toward ending the filibuster. And yet, the Beltway hardly hinges on her every word. Far from the dozen reporters that encircle Manchin in the Capitol hallways, Hassan glides through the Senate basement without any reporters trailing herâand sheâs hardly ever a target of the leftâs Twitter scorn.
But the GOPâs embrace of 2020 election conspiracies and measures to curtail voting access is forcing a change in this dynamic. Sen. Angus King (I-ME), an independent who caucuses with Democrats, had been seen as quietly aligned with Manchin on the filibuster. However, when The Daily Beast asked King on Tuesday if Manchin reflected the views of a broader group of senators, he responded by reiterating his reluctance to break the 60-vote threshold.
âBut Iâm very worried about voting rights,â King added. âAnd if it's a question of voting rights versus a Senate rule, democracy wins, for me.â
That qualification, which Manchin has not made, may leave him increasingly alone within the caucus, no longer the bellwether of colleagues who might have nodded approvingly with every quote or interview in which he punctures the dreams of the party base. But the strength of his objections to ending the filibuster or supporting S.1, Democratsâ marquee election reform bill, have some in the party convinced more than ever heâs not freelancing.
âIâm fully bought into the idea that heâs just a proxy for, like, five or six other senators who feel the same way,â said a Democratic source, expressing the frustration of many in the party.
Like many tricky bits of Hill conventional wisdom, itâs hard to get senators talking on the record about the theory of a Manchin shadow caucus. Several Democrats declined to talk about it when approached by The Daily Beast. Asked if Manchin reflected the views of others in the caucus, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), the partyâs second-in-command, offered a short answer: âI donât know.â
King only slightly expanded on that answer when asked the same question. âI don't know, because I donât know what other people feel,â he said, noting that Sinema was also quite vocal with her concerns about the filibuster. âI think there are others as well.â
Indeed, Sinema is a major exception. Sheâs hardly quiet about her views, and is beginning to approach Manchin levels of notoriety in the Democratic base for her willingness to disappoint them. The Arizona Democrat is far more press-averse than her colleague from West Virginia, but when she does speak, she tends to have the same effect.
A comment Sinema gave in April, for example, continues to fuel outraged tweets from liberal commentators as the GOP filibusters the partyâs agenda. âWhen you have a place thatâs broken and not working, and many would say thatâs the Senate today, I donât think the solution is to erode the rules,â she told the Wall Street Journal. âI think the solution is for senators to change their behavior and begin to work together, which is what the country wants us to do.â
Sinema is also considered closest to Manchin in another way: Many Democrats feel they are equally committed to the filibuster in a way that others are not. "Other senators might be behind Manchin and Sinema, but if they budge on the filibuster, theyâre all going with them,â said a former aide to a moderate Democratic senator. âNone of them are going to be the last ones standing."
A handful of roll call votes this year shows how the scrutiny on Manchin or Sinema can obscure broader shared sentiments in the caucus. In March, the six Democrats who joined Manchin and Sinema in voting against a $15 minimum wage were Sens. King, Hassan, Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Chris Coons (D-DE), Tom Carper (D-DE), and Jon Tester (D-MT).
As Democrats worked to pass their $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill, Republicans forced dozens of symbolic votes designed to put vulnerable Democrats in tough political positions. Manchin had company on a few. A slightly different group of seven joined Manchin in voting for a GOP resolution to block stimulus checks from going to undocumented immigrants: Sens. Sinema, Hassan, Tester, Kelly, Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), John Hickenlooper (D-CO), and Gary Peters (D-MI). All did ultimately vote to strip that resolution from the final bill.
But itâs the issues where no votes have yet been castâelection reform and the filibusterâwhere thereâs growing interest in who may be drafting in Manchinâs wake.
A handful of Democratic senators have simply skirted the question of whether to change the 60-vote threshold in order to enact the partyâs agenda. Most are up for re-election in 2022 and are navigating tricky balancing acts in their home states, where a Manchin-style stiff-arming of the left could spell trouble in a primary, but where moderation has been a winning general election strategy.
Kelly, who was elected in 2020 and faces Arizona voters again next year, has not said definitively what his stance on the filibuster is, telling reporters this week that he would âevaluate any change to our rules, regardless of what they are, based on what's in the best interest of Arizona, and the best interest of our country."
Hassan, a top target for Republicans looking to flip a Democratic seat, has said she has âconcernsâ about getting rid of the 60-vote threshold. Shaheen, who won re-election in 2020, has previously said the filibuster should be reformed, but has quietly avoided taking a hard line since Democrats took the Senate and White House in January.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), also a GOP target in 2022, has embraced a middle ground that Manchin himself has opened the door to: supporting the âtalking filibuster,â a proposal to make filibustering more painful by requiring senators to fill up debate time with actual debate.
Meanwhile, S.1âthe bill that many Democrats believe is worth breaking or changing the filibuster rule to passâdoes not have Manchinâs support. He announced on Sunday that he will vote no on the legislation, sparking yet another round of Manchin-inspired groans on the left. But privately, some of his colleagues are said to be uneasy with the bill, Politico reported on Tuesday. And by zooming in on the billâs parts, itâs clear Manchin is not isolated in his misgivings.
Take statehood for the District of Columbia, which is touched on in S.1. Manchin was the first Democrat to come out against a separate statehood bill, S.51, which now has 46 Democratic co-sponsors. The holdouts are Manchin, Kelly, Sinema, and King.
Among those pushing for passage of S.1 or an end to the filibuster, thereâs a sense that the tide is shifting away from Manchin. King is not the only moderate to say recently that heâd jettison the filibuster if it meant protecting voting rights. Tester, a friend and ally of Manchinâs, has done the same.
On Wednesday, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) gave an interview to the Washington Post in which she expressed reluctance toward ending the filibusterâthough afterward, her office clarified that sheâd support taking that step if it meant passing S.1.
Many of these questions are set to come to a head this summer, when the Senate will vote on the sweeping voting package.
"Thereâs a few members who have been quiet on this,â said Eli Zupnick, a former Senate aide whoâs now spokesperson for the anti-filibuster group Fix Our Senate. âThe assumption and hope is theyâd be on board where the caucus lands when push comes to shove.â
Roll call votes will put those senators who are less eager than Manchin for the attention, and the scrutiny, closer to the spotlight. As will continued discussion of the West Virginia senatorâs âheat shieldâ status.
For now, though, a dozen or more reporters routinely swarm Manchin on his way to the Senate floor each day, while simpatico low-key lawmakers slip by. Republican onlookersâwho might like to see a little more scrutiny on themâhave no choice but to shrug.
âI suspect, both on the rules issue, and a lot of the legislative issues, that it's more than just Sen. Manchin and Sen. Sinema,â said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO). âBut they've been willing to stand up and take a position.â