President-elect Donald Trump has promised to deport millions in an unprecedented crackdown on undocumented migrants.
His MAGA billionaire lieutenant Elon Musk has said he will find unprecedented trillions to cut from federal spending.
Wall Street thinks they’re delusional, projecting that the two will accomplish a fraction of what they’re threatening at best.
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A Goldman Sachs survey, released Sunday, revealed that a mere 6 percent of investors think net immigration will end up negative under Trump. In other words, they expect more people to continue entering the United States than leaving it.
While Trump will be able to issue executive orders on immigration, he will have to navigate a narrow Republican advantage in Congress to pass permanent reform.
Any action is also expected to be met with legal challenges. California’s legislature convened for a special session Monday to discuss a proposed $25 million legal fund to “Trump-proof” the state.
During Trump’s first term, California’s Department of Justice filed more than 100 lawsuits against his administration’s policies.
Over a fifth of investors told Goldman they think immigration under Trump will exceed the pre-pandemic rate of roughly 1 million per year.
Musk’s plan to help Trump take a chainsaw to government spending as part of the all-new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—a presidential commission he is poised to lead alongside Vivek Ramaswamy—faces almost as much skepticism.
Only 10 percent of investors told Goldman they think DOGE will be able to find $400 billion or more in annual spending cuts, while Musk has claimed he’ll find $2 trillion to trim from the $6.7 trillion federal budget. Another 10 percent of investors expect DOGE will manage a more modest $200 billion to $400 billion.
Four in 10 investors, the most to respond to any option, said they expect Musk will find insignificant or modest spending cuts at best, Goldman Sachs said.
Experts have also questioned Musk’s plans, given that interest payments, which can’t be cut, account for 13 percent of the budget, and Trump has promised not to touch major entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, which account for half of all government spending.
“This goal—which amounts to 31 percent of annual US spending, and 7 percent of US GDP—is sheer fantasy,” wrote Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel last month. “Say they go fully draconian—starting by abolishing the Department of Education altogether, as Trump has pledged to do. This would reduce total spending by 4 percent.”
