The Mystery Hit List in the Showdown Between Israel and Iran

The row between Israel and Iran spiraled into further chaos this week with repeated threats from officials in Tehran vowing retaliation for the assassination of a top commander at its embassy in Damascus.

Although Israel has not publicly taken credit for the attack, ​​U.S. and Israeli officials alike appear to be taking the warnings seriously, with the White House acknowledging the threat to Israel as “real” and officials in Jerusalem taking apparent contingency measures in preparation for a possible attack. Adding to the risk of escalation, a report released on Monday by the London-based Elaph suggested that Israeli soldiers are preparing to launch counterstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites if Iran chooses to retaliate.

How exactly Iran could conduct its vengeance campaign is yet to be seen, but one thing is for certain: The assassination in Syria could mark a grim new chapter in the yearslong dogfight between Israel and Iran.

If Tehran is contemplating attacking Israel in a proportional way, it is likely deliberating about attacks against Israeli diplomats, warned Elliott Abrams, a former deputy national security adviser and special representative for Iran, told The Daily Beast.

“The logic… suggests to me that they will see if they have the option to attack an Israeli embassy or Israeli diplomats connected to an embassy or Israeli officials outside of Israel. That would be a parallel,” said Abrams, now a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

While Iran likely does not want to trigger a broader war, Israel and the U.S. are likely interested in signaling to Iran that it ought to tread lightly in the days ahead, Abrams added.

“The rules of the game are changing in the sense that previously only Iranian proxies had been attacked… this is a change in the rules,” Abrams told The Daily Beast. “What they’re saying to Iran is, ‘Be very careful, because we’re not going to take these kinds of attacks from Hamas or Hezbollah and other proxies without a very strong response against you.’”

A Dangerous Game

Israel’s reported preparations could be aimed at deterring Iran from retaliating in the first place, according to Avi Melamed, a former Israel intelligence official and fellow of Intelligence and Middle East Affairs at the Eisenhower Institute in Washington, D.C.

It is “a part of the very complex picture of the deterrence in the region. There is a very complex game going on,” Melamed said. “The regime in Iran aims to have something which is almost a win-win situation… the mullah regime can activate their proxies… and the mullah regime is safe and sound.”

Israel might be signaling to the Iranian regime that “if there was going to be an Iranian regime attack on the state of Israel,” then Jerusalem would be willing to carry out attacks on Iranian soil, as opposed to targeting Tehran’s proxies in Syria or Elsewhere. There’s no guarantee that “Israel will stay in the same old rules of the game,” Melamed said.

U.S. officials have been keeping a watchful eye on Iran’s proxies in Syria and Iraq in recent years, monitoring the threat they pose to U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East. After the United States killed a top Iranian commander, Qassem Soleimani, in 2020, Iran attacked two U.S. military bases in Iraq in retaliation. Earlier this year, militants conducted another flurry of attacks against American bases, prompting the Biden administration to respond with airstrikes.

While those attacks have since let up, the embassy attack in Damascus could mean all bets are off the table.

“We will not hesitate to defend our personnel,” said Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood, “and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies not to take advantage of the situation… to resume their attacks on U.S. personnel.”