President Donald Trump is in full re-election mode, barnstorming the country with packed-to-the-roof rallies and shadowing Democrats as they meander through their messy nomination process.
But it’s one state in particular—and an unexpected one at that—that is garnering major attention from the Republican Party as they hope to hold on to control of the White House.
From Jan. 1, 2019, through Jan. 31, 2020, the Republican National Committee has transferred $594,875 to the Arizona State Republican Party. That is the biggest transfer of money to any state that has not had congressional elections during that time period. And it significantly outpaces other states that are considered the main battlegrounds in the 2020 cycle.
By contrast, the RNC has transferred $278,985 to the Wisconsin GOP, even as that state is increasingly viewed as the most likely tipping point for the presidential election.
The funds being sent to Arizona could be used to help the party navigate a high-profile Senate race this cycle, one being waged between incumbent Republican Martha McSally and astronaut turned gun-control advocate Mark Kelly. But the fact that the state is receiving more help from the RNC than any other isn’t just because it has a Senate race in 2020 along with the presidential election. Both Michigan and Georgia have Senate contests this cycle too; and the RNC has transferred $373,326 and $280,545.00 to their state party’s respectively.
The RNC has transferred $287,480 to the Florida GOP, and $414,835 to the Pennsylvania GOP—both below what Arizona has received. But the Trump campaign has sent an additional $249,725 to Florida—bringing the total transferred to that state party up to $537,205 (still below Arizona’s total)—and $246,000 to Pennsylvania, which places it about $65,000 higher than Arizona in terms of receipts from the national party and the presidential campaign.
The Daily Beast gathered this data by filtering contributions or transfers from the party to other political committees in each state. We did not include money spent on vendors in states or on staff and travel to those states as those were overwhelmingly for places where the Trump re-election efforts are headquartered (such as New York) and for political activities not directly associated with building up state party infrastructure.
Trump could ill afford to lose any state he won in 2016. But Arizona would pose particular problems in that it would allow Democrats to potentially win back the White House without having to sweep back the three Midwest states that Hillary Clinton famously lost in 2016. If, for instance, Trump were to lose Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2020, he could still win re-election if the rest of the map held. But a loss of Arizona on top of that would swing the contest—even if Trump held on to Wisconsin.
Prospects of a flip are not remote. Trump won the state by less than four percent in 2016 and Democrats have made steady gains in the state since, including flipping a Senate seat in 2018, investing heavily in one of the state’s major counties and making voter registration gains there.
But while the Democratic National Committee, trailing the RNC badly in fundraising, has transferred $272,708.87 to the Arizona Democratic Party, the party’s other entities still seem inclined to prioritize other toss up states. The Democratic opposition research firm American Bridge recently announced a $10 million ad investment in battleground states. But they only put Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin on the list. Priorities USA, the party’s largest super PAC, announced last week that it was expanding its ad budget through the convention by reserving $70 million in TV and digital ads in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The group has run digital ads in Arizona but has not made TV reservations.
Trump, for his part, doesn’t seem to be taking any chances. He held a rally in Phoenix on Wednesday night as the Democratic presidential field debated in neighboring Nevada. Trump Victory—the branding for the RNC and Trump campaign’s joint field operation— has hired nearly 50 staff on the ground in Arizona and trained, what one official said were, “thousands of Arizonans through our Trump Victory Leadership Initiative (TVLI) training program.”
“Our fundraising is through the roof, and that has enabled the RNC to invest early in our ground game in Arizona and many other states across the country,” said RNC Communications Director Michael Ahrens. “We are confident that Arizona will choose President Trump and Republicans up and down the ballot this fall.”
