As the war in Ukraine approaches the two-week mark, it is increasingly clear that we are unprepared for many of the challenges that now seem likely—the greatest of which are associated with the ever-growing possibility that this conflict stretches out for many more weeks, months, or perhaps even years.
President Biden’s announcement that the U.S. would ban imports of Russian oil and his advocacy for a $12 billion package of aid for Ukraine, underscored that as the conflict continues on, its impacts will grow, not just for the heroic citizens of Ukraine but for average Americans who might have weeks ago considered the conflict remote and unlikely to touch their daily lives.
As Biden’s remarks illustrated, it is time for Ukraine and its friends in the international community to prepare for a war that will almost certainly become the most costly and destructive in nearly a century—and one that will have profound long-term consequences for geopolitics, the world economy and, above all, for tens of millions of Ukrainians.
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Now that it’s clear Putin won’t accept just a few pieces of Ukraine as his war spoils, and he won’t be seizing Kyiv without imposing a horrific, drawn-out siege of the capital, and we’re awake to the fact that he’s not a rational actor but a deranged nuclear-armed sociopath—we need to adjust our lens to correctly observe the facts on the ground.
Ukraine’s military has been surprisingly effective in fighting against the Russian assault, and Putin’s forces were confronted with a robust and courageous Ukrainian response from its leaders and its people. The defiance of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has led the Atlantic Alliance and nations worldwide into an unprecedented show of solidarity—with a seriousness of purpose and scale of responses that no one anticipated.
People cross a destroyed bridge as they evacuate the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, during a heavy shelling and bombing.
SOPA Images/GettyMeanwhile, the Russian military is bogged down in the mud and its own arrogance.
Kyiv stands. The Zelenskyy government remains in place. The Ukrainian armed forces daily inflict defeats on the Russian invaders that continue to both inspire and surprise. International sanctions grow. Global condemnation of Putin strengthens daily.
These are all positive developments. They also suggest that in the long run, it will be very difficult for Putin to achieve anything like a victory out of his merciless aggression. Difficult but not impossible. What is more, even if Putin is ultimately defeated by all meaningful measures, the cost of defeating him is likely to be much higher than we even imagine today. And the consequences of the protracted conflict that will get us to either of those outcomes are likely to be far-reaching and, in some cases, for better and for worse, unexpected.
The likelihood that the conflict may go on for much longer is based on the fact that neither side is in a position to win a quick victory.
For all their courage and the damage they are inflicting on the Russians, it is hard to imagine Ukraine’s armed forces will drive out Moscow’s troops any time soon. More likely is that Russia continues to make slow gains. They are not well set up for urban fighting and we could see stand-offs in major cities.
But in the past, as in Grozny, Chechnya, Russia’s military has embraced the tactic of the utter destruction of cities they could not otherwise win. We are already seeing signs of that with indiscriminate Russian shelling, missile attacks, and the bombing of Ukraine’s urban centers. Perhaps that tactic ultimately allows Russia to push the Ukraine government out of Kyiv and set up its own client regime.
Should that happen, the rightful Ukrainian government may be moved to exile or a safer location in Ukraine’s west, where it would oversee an insurgency. But even if the government falls entirely, at this point a protracted insurgency seems likely and, in the end, might result in Moscow’s decision to withdraw. The Russians have seen the consequences of such wars in Afghanistan. What’s more, they are struggling economically under heavy international sanctions and a long war in Ukraine, whatever form it may take will be very expensive—maybe more expensive than Moscow can afford.
It may seem, contemplating these alternatives, that time is on the side of the people of Ukraine. Perhaps. But it may not be that simple. It certainly will not be the case if Ukraine and its friends and allies worldwide are not fully and properly prepared for the long haul.
There are positive signs that Ukrainian and the international leaders who support it understand this. On March 5th, the Washington Post ran an article entitled “U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency.” The article quoted a U.S. government official stating, “We’re doing contingency planning now for every possibility” and noted that includes considering what a government-in-exile might look like. It also stated that efforts to support that government and the insurgency are being considered—and the strategic shifts necessary to fighting an insurgency, rather than a conventional defensive war, are being discussed.
Such scenarios are turning on what has emerged as the X-factor of this war, the fierce determination of the people of Ukraine to preserve their independence and freedom. As inspiring and important that has proven to be in the first days of this war, sustaining it for months or years is going to be a real test. Moreover, and perhaps just as salient, maintaining international support for Ukraine and for sanctions on Russia is also going to be hard to maintain for an extended period.
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House March 8, 2022 in Washington, DC. During his remarks, Biden announced a full ban on imports of Russian oil and energy products as an additional step in holding Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine.
Win McNamee/GettyBiden’s announcement—like that of leaders in the UK and Canada—naturally drew attention to the beginning of the “energy war” phase of this conflict.
German natural gas prices are already 14 times as high as they are in the U.S. and they are rising. The price of oil hit as high as $130 a barrel recently and with the boycott of Russian energy products, those prices will continue to climb. Biden’s speech anticipated that the impact of those increases will likely be felt at the gas pump in the U.S., and he committed to taking whatever steps possible to reduce the burden on Main Street America. He also rightly made clear that his administration will not tolerate profiteering by energy companies seeking to inflate already massive profits on the back of this crisis.
Biden recognizes that the action he has taken may have negative consequences on the polls. But he also, as a leader should, look past the political to remain focused on our long-term national security interests.
To put real pressure on Russia, these sanctions on its energy sector will ultimately be essential. That is why the administration will have to work hard in the wake of Tuesday’s decision to maintain the will of the American people to maintain their sacrifices. That will take an ongoing communications campaign. It is also why the U.S. administration is searching for ways to mitigate the long-term effects of rising prices–from pressing Saudi Arabia to pump more oil to actually entering into discussions with Venezuela, no friend of the U.S. and a Russian ally, to lift sanctions on shipping that country’s oil to the U.S.
Evhen, a Ukrainian serviceman, who was wounded in his shoulder during shelling in Irpin, receives medical help prior to being transferred to the hospital on March 6 in Kyiv, Ukraine. At least three civilians were killed and others were wounded as Russian mortar rounds landed between Irpin and Kyiv this morning, striking a route used by civilians fleeing southeast toward Kyiv. Russia continued its assault on Ukraine's major cities, including its capital, more than a week after launching a large-scale invasion of the country.
Anastasia Vlasova/GettyEven without energy sanctions being embraced by every European ally, the cost of not doing business with Russia will create hardships for a wide range of European companies. Again, it’s one thing if this conflict ends quickly. It’s another if it is drawn out, and yet another still if maintaining some sanctions after a cease-fire is agreed to is seen as a tool for keeping the peace or inducing Russia to pay for the damage it has inflicted on Ukraine.
According to the United Nations, more than 2 million refugees have now fled the carnage and devastation in Ukraine. In a long war, that number is likely to grow. Estimates suggest that the total number of refugees could hit 5 million. Each one poses a cost to the countries that take them in.
Immigration policies that accept refugees easily now may grow more hotly debated should this conflict extend beyond months into years.
Also, as more of Ukraine falls to the Russians, supplying arms to that country’s military or to insurgents will grow ever more difficult. According to U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, that may start to happen even in the very near future.
Other factors may complicate the process. Prosecuting Vladimir Putin for war crimes—as is only just—could inflame the leader more or make negotiations more difficult. Is that a reason not to do it? Of course, not. But it is a story that will unfold in the months ahead and must be taken into consideration. And of course, global events may make it difficult to maintain the kind of focus on this crisis that it has commanded for the past couple of months.
Divided attention or simple Ukraine-fatigue may end up serving as a drag on maintaining Western political will. It shouldn’t. Ukraine’s people don’t have the option of growing disinterested in their own conflict. But they, too, could be ground down in an extended war.
Of course, the costs of such a long conflict will weigh heavily on Russia too. They may fuel growing public dissent against the war. They may weaken Putin. Indeed, the entire theory behind sanctions is that such pressure will help bring this war to a close sooner rather than later.
But that can only happen if the leaders of the West recognize that their burden in leading this war to a just and lasting conclusion will require much political heavy lifting.
Voters will have to be prepared for the sacrifices involved. Workarounds from tax breaks to shifting to new sources of energy (a potential hidden benefit of the conflict that Biden raised in his Tuesday remarks) will have to be embraced. And the effort to underscore how vital it is that Russia be rebuffed and Ukraine (a democracy) be supported must continue unabated.
New sanctions will be needed. Strategies will have to shift. New resources will have to be allocated.
Further, we must prepare for all these steps now. Because while recent experience should engender humility about making bold predictions about this conflict, because a long conflict is such a high-probability outcome, we must anticipate it and we must help ensure the people of Ukraine—be it those who are fighting or those who have had to flee battle-scarred cities—are supported throughout it.
In this case, as is often true in war, it is the side that is best prepared to endure that will be best prepared to win.
