WEST DES MOINES, Iowa—Throughout the entire 2024 campaign, former President Donald Trump has seemed destined to win the Iowa caucuses. What wasn’t foretold, however, was the stranglehold Trump would display over Republican caucusgoers.
On Monday night, Trump showed off his sheer dominance over the rest of the field by blowing out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and the rest of the field so badly that networks and Associated Press were ready to call the contest around 7:30 p.m. Central—just minutes after caucusgoers began casting their votes.
In some precincts, like the one in West Des Moines where The Daily Beast was observing the count, voting hadn’t even begun when the race was called.
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In true Trumpian fashion, it was over before it started.
With more than 95 percent of the vote reported, it appeared that Trump would hold on to just over 50 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, DeSantis nabbed second place with just over 21 percent, and Haley right behind him with 19 percent.
While no one should draw too many lessons from the Iowa Caucuses—there were only about 110,000 GOP caucusgoers Monday night—it’s a significant win for Trump. The former president’s team treated Iowa as their first and best opportunity to slam the door shut on whoever remained in the primary field, sending a clear message that the nomination was essentially his.
It’s not yet safe to declare the whole primary contest over, but the performances from Haley and DeSantis in Iowa are poised to reflect that the appetite among Republicans for a non-Trump candidate is even more meager than expected.
Entrance polls suggested a majority of Iowa voters identify with the MAGA movement. Alarmingly, two-thirds of these Republican caucusgoers said they do not believe that President Joe Biden’s 2020 election win was legitimate—a line Trump has pushed for more than three years that is disconnected from reality.
Networks calling the race before most caucusgoers had voted, predictably, didn’t seem to be helping Monday night.
After DeSantis addressed voters in Dubuque with a five-minute version of his stump speech, Iowans at Table Mound Elementary gymnasium were surprised to learn the race was called before they had voted.
“We all know what happened in Arizona,” a woman who asked not to be identified told The Daily Beast, alluding to Fox News’ correct projection in 2020 that Trump had lost the state.
Ron Ainley, a 77-year-old Dubuque voter who said he had participated in every caucus since 1972, was still deciding between voting for Trump or Haley when The Daily Beast informed him the race had already been called for Trump.
“When I first moved to Dubuque, you could almost caucus in a phone booth if you were a Republican,” Ainley said, adding that DeSantis “did not sound like a man defeated” when he addressed the crowd.
DeSantis’ team almost immediately began complaining about the media calling the race before caucusgoers had voted. DeSantis’ rapid response director deemed it “media election interference.”
At Valley High School in the fast-growing and affluent suburb of West Des Moines, no one at a well-attended caucus had voted by the time the race was called for Trump.
“I was mortified when I read that 30 minutes into our caucus,” said Tom Cox, the precinct captain for Haley at the precinct. “It’s downright irresponsible to have the networks calling this race like it’s electoral politics when it’s neighbors talking to neighbors. This is why we have the caucus.”
It was exactly the kind of precinct where Haley was positioned to do well—and ultimately she did. She placed first with 107 votes, with Trump trailing with 88 and DeSantis with 81.
“Haley resonates with this type of precinct because she espouses sensible values and good leadership,” Cox, a 55-year old executive recruiter, told The Daily Beast. “People here are really attuned to good leadership.”
West Des Moines is a “conservative place,” Cox said, and the high levels of civic engagement makes it a place of “progressive conservatism.”
In the crowd of suburbanites, there were only a few MAGA hats, but fewer DeSantis hats and Haley buttons. Two campaigns called in what the caucus emcee called “special guests:” Trump’s surrogate was Missouri State Treasurer Vivek Malek, while Florida House Speaker Paul Renner, a close ally of DeSantis, spoke for the Florida governor.
But one Trump supporter at the site, who declined to give her name, remarked that she saw several of her neighbors—who she claimed she knew to be Democrats—show up to register and participate at the caucus site so they could vote for Haley. (Because the caucuses are run by the state party, different rules apply from typical elections.)
While the Trump supporter called the outcome in the precinct “crap,” she ultimately could only praise the overall outcome.
Trump supporters react during the campaign event of former President Donald Trump, in Indianola, Iowa.
Brendan McDermid/ReutersStill, there was some suspense Monday night.
In addition to how drastic Trump’s margin would be, once Trump was declared the winner, the real question became who would get second place. DeSantis staked much of his campaign on a strong finish in Iowa, while Haley bet on attempting to upset Trump in New Hampshire.
Given the Florida governor’s borderline all-or-nothing approach to Iowa, expectations were higher for him coming into Monday night compared to the former U.N. ambassador, who split her time more evenly between Iowa and New Hampshire. An unexpectedly strong performance for Haley would still be a jolt heading into the next vote in New Hampshire on Jan. 23.
But as results came in on Monday night, neither Haley nor DeSantis got exactly what they wanted.
Yes, DeSantis got second place, but it was far from the decisive victory he had previously promised. Instead, Haley was right behind him, beating expectations in Iowa. At the same time, Haley was denied any real momentum with her third place finish.
The mixed result for Haley and DeSantis was that Trump may have made out best, more than beating both of their totals combined while denying either of them the clear runner-up status.
DeSantis’ message Monday night that, with his second place finish, his campaign had “punched its ticket out of Iowa.”
While there were rumors that DeSantis could drop out if the Iowa results were truly abysmal, the Florida governor spent time in his Monday night speech claiming his finish was strong and suggesting the results were affected by the early calls from the networks.
(DeSantis also said he would “not make any excuses.”)
One person who didn’t punch his ticket out of Iowa was Vivek Ramaswamy. The pharmaceutical company millionaire staked his attention-grabbing campaign on Iowa. But failing to crack even 8 percent of the vote, Ramaswamy ended his campaign Monday night and—in what always seemed like an inevitability—endorsed Trump.
During Trump’s victory speech Monday night, the former president struck a calculated but more conciliatory tone than normal—though he still managed to seemingly inadvertently take a shot at DeSantis and Haley, congratulating “Ron and Nikki for having a good time together.”
But Trump’s overall message was that it was time to “come together,” a clear call on his GOP competitors to drop out.
“Come together,” Trump said, “it’s going to happen soon, too.”
Other than Ramaswamy, however, no other candidate was ready to drop out. While DeSantis took solace in his second place finish, Haley took solace in her stronger-than-expected finish and surprisingly strong polling numbers in New Hampshire.
“I love you, Iowa, but we’re on to New Hampshire,” Haley said Monday night.
Even if Haley pulls off an upset in New Hampshire, however, the Iowa performance previewed what could be the ultimate story of this primary: Trump’s dominance punctuated with minor fits of resistance.
The campaigns are likely to use any excuse they can to explain away their poor performance—from the networks calling the race early, as DeSantis did, to the Arctic temperatures that walloped Iowa in the final phase of the caucus campaign.
But the takeaway from Iowa was that Trump still has a stranglehold over the GOP. And for any candidate to seriously challenge him, they’ll have to change the dynamics of this race fast.
Jake Lahut contributed reporting from Dubuque, Iowa. Sam Brodey contributed reporting from West Des Moines, Iowa.
