If recent polls are to be believed, Donald Trump can’t win a General Election—and he can’t lose a Republican primary. It’s a weird scenario because the former would normally preclude the latter.
Let’s start with the notion that he can’t beat Joe Biden. Anyone who watched Trump defy the experts in 2016 should be skeptical of such declarations. But according to a recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, “53% of Americans say they would definitely not support [Trump] if he is the nominee.”
This leaves Trump with 47% of the electorate that is “gettable,” which is an important caveat when you consider that he picked the Electoral College lock by winning just 46% of the popular vote in 2016. However, in addition to the 53% who definitely won’t vote for Trump in 2024, “Another 11% say they would probably not support him in November 2024”—which is to say that 64% of voters are unlikely to support Trump.
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Based on this—and it’s worth noting that national polling averages still show a very tight race—it’s hard to imagine that (barring an economic recession or a Joe Biden health scare) Trump could win in 2024.
Indeed, even National Review’s Andy McCarthy, who has defended Trump over his legal troubles (granted, it’s complicated), has concluded that “Trump can’t win. 65% [are] already against him. That’s before Dems launch [a] barrage after getting him nominated …”
At the very least, it seems clear that Trump will begin the General Election with the deck stacked against him.
So why are Republicans so hellbent on nominating a likely loser?
Republicans have quit believing the establishment media and their polls (here, I have some sympathy). Despite his many losses, there is a lingering perception that Trump can pull off miracles (as he did in 2016), and that the media is out to get him.
What is more, there really isn’t a better option. Republicans believe that Trump is more electable than Ron DeSantis, who is in second place, nationally (even CNN concludes these voters may be right about that).
But even if Republicans thought Trump was less likely to beat Biden, it’s not clear that it would matter. According to a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll in Iowa, “Fully 65% of likely Republican caucusgoers say a presidential candidate who comes closest to them on the issues is more important to them, versus 29% who say they prize more the candidate with the best chance of beating President Joe Biden in Nov. 2024.”
There really doesn’t seem to be any way to persuade Republicans not to support Trump.
For example, let’s say your strategy was to have friends and family talk with a Trump supporter and attempt to turn them towards DeSantis or someone else. Based on some recent polling, it’s not likely to overcome their trust in Trump.
According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump’s voters trust him more than their own family or friends. Anecdotally, this rings true. Trump may be a serial liar, but his fans utterly trust him. I’m certain that my Trumpy extended family trusts the former president more than their own flesh-and-blood relative (who also happens to be a professional political journalist)—at least when it comes to how this country should be run.
This dogmatic belief bleeds into the religious arena, too. It shouldn’t surprise us that Trump fans trust him over their own religious leaders. Like the old spiritual hymn, they have declared, “We shall not be moved” (at least when it comes to backing Trump).
Certainly, these voters have given up on prioritizing a candidate’s personal moral code and religious bonafides. Consider the new Iowa poll that shows Trump leading among evangelicals with 47% evangelical support, while dwarfing actual evangelical candidates like Mike Pence.
If Trump paying off porn stars didn’t sway these voters, it’s hard to imagine what will. In fact, one finding from the Iowa poll showed that Trump’s lead grew after the latest indictment in Georgia.
In a rational world, Trump’s uphill climb against Biden would influence Republican voters—especially since they fear that another four years of Democratic control would undo gains made in Trump’s four years (including Supreme Court nominations).
But Republican voters are impenetrable and unmovable.
With all due respect to recent polling, I am not yet convinced that Trump is a sure loser against Biden. But I am increasingly persuaded that Trump can’t lose this primary.
It’s possible that some external event will prevent another Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden matchup. But for that to happen, it will probably take an act of God—not an act of political persuasion.
