If Republicans want to win in the future, they should drop Donald Trump like a bad habit. And soon. That’s usually what happens to losing presidents. If they don’t, he will continue to overshadow and define the GOP, making it impossible for the next generation of Republican leaders to emerge and (of equal importance) to distance themselves from the Trump stench.
Instead, we are witnessing a familiar sight: Republicans biding their time, while placating and enabling Trump’s nefarious behavior. Ted Cruz made the same miscalculation in 2015, when he sucked up to “Donald,” hoping to curry favor with his voters for when Trump inevitably dropped out of the 2016 race. Similarly, today, Republicans see Trump as a (probably) defeated president who still excites and dominates the grassroots base. They reason that he will surely go away, and that the smart strategic move is to demonstrate loyalty until he does.
Even if you don’t think Trump’s goal is to actually contest the 2020 election—even if you think it’s all a fundraising scam or mere “theater”—Trump’s refusal to concede is still a highly irresponsible act that damages trust in institutions and the GOP. Trump has no loyalty higher than his own self-interest; therefore, he doesn’t worry about collateral damage.
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Instead of kicking Trump while he’s down, these Republicans think they can finesse and co-opt their way to the top. They’ve been making this same mistake for years. They think Trump will eventually reward loyalty—that the old man will retire and turn the store over to you to run. It never happens. The problem is that this rationale also buys Trump enough time to consolidate his power and regain his strength.
But even if you couldn't care less about the fate of the GOP’s 2024 field, there’s another reason Republicans should want to dispatch with Trump, now. As liberal Bill Scher points out, the only thing keeping the disparate Democratic coalition together is a hatred of Trump. Absent Trump as an existential threat, Dems could descend into backbiting and civil war. The longer Trump sticks around, the easier it is for Joe Biden to keep his party united. If you’re a Republican hoping for a comeback, this is a problem.
Instead of placating him, the other option for Republicans is to stand up to Trump, which is a fight they (assume they) can’t win. Voilà! A guaranteed self-fulfilling prophecy! Their theory of appeasement is premised on the naive notion that he will eventually go away on his own—that they can be free-riders on other people’s sweat and courage.
This theory is flawed. Trump is already reportedly talking about a 2024 bid. And even if he doesn’t actually run, he will freeze the GOP field. What Republican will have the guts to run for president if they even think Trump might want his old job back? Whoever emerges (should Trump not seek the nomination) will be late to the game and living in his shadow. This is not a scenario I’m dreaming up; it is what Trump’s own team is boasting. In her appearance on Fox News, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said, “There is no denying that this president is the titular head of our party for many decades to come.” Decades?
What should happen very soon is that Republicans who want to have a future should start talking like it. No, they don’t have to condemn Trump on his way out the door. It could be as simple as saying, “We applaud President Trump for his accomplishments, but it’s also time for this party to move on.” But as was the case in 2016, Republicans face a collective action problem. If they were to lock arms together against Trump, it would benefit everyone. But individually, they still believe their best chance to emerge as his successor is to bide their time.
This problem is exacerbated by the fact that Senate Republicans want to maintain the majority—a goal that requires exciting Trump’s GOP base for the January runoffs in Georgia (“We need his voters”). Walking away from Trump would presumably demoralize them. And so, they go along with Trumpism—the same philosophy that just cost them the White House—at least, until Jan. 5. And by then, it’ll be a habit. Like the Bourbons, Republicans have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
What they should do is learn from Trump—while they move past him. Here’s what I mean. It’s hard to believe we can go back to a pre-Trump era where Republicans looked like Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Likewise, it’s hard to believe that Republicans can succeed by employing Trump’s tactics of chaos, division, and lack of discipline (indeed, Trump can’t even maintain the presidency by doing it). What should happen is an effort to create a hybrid GOP that is more populist than the old GOP—one that can win working-class whites and working-class African Americans and working-class Hispanics, without completely alienating the rest of America.
There are numerous potential Republican candidates who could try and carry this mantle: Mike Pence, Tucker Carlson, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, and Tom Cotton, to name a few. But consider Marco Rubio’s recent comments about how, “The future of the party is based on a multiethnic, multiracial working-class coalition.” It is possible that this re-branded and more populist Rubio could engage working-class Americans of all races, while also not alienating educated suburbanites, based on his rhetoric or temperament. This would only be possible if Donald Trump exits stage left. And for a man who loves to be at the center of attention, he’s unlikely to go willingly.
