For a number of Republican presidential hopefuls, the prospect of Donald Trump self-immolating from a federal criminal indictment seems like a development that could upend the 2024 primary in their favor.
But don’t expect the primary field to light the match—or even fan the flames—as they continue to hold out hope that someone else will magically convince primary voters that it is a bad idea to nominate someone charged with stealing sensitive national security secrets.
Since the news broke Thursday of Trump’s indictment, on charges related to his mishandling of classified documents, every serious GOP presidential contender, save for one, has leapt to the former president’s defense in some way.
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Although their responses ranged from the tepidly sympathetic to the conspicuously Trump-adoring, the clear calculation for Trump’s presumptive primary foes is that it is better to be seen as with him than anywhere close to against him.
Nikki Haley, for instance, didn’t mention Trump, or President Joe Biden, in her response to the indictment, which came after nearly everyone else had responded. But she did argue “the American people are exhausted by the prosecutorial overreach, double standards, and vendetta politics.” She declared it was “time to move beyond the endless drama and distractions.”
Vivek Ramaswamy, meanwhile, issued the first and most blisteringly pro-Trump statement, fitting for someone who Trumpworld believes is angling for the vice presidential slot or another plum appointment, as The Daily Beast reported in May.
The culture warrior and longshot candidate also set a new standard for obsequiousness in the GOP field when it comes to Trump: “It would be much easier for me to win this election if Trump weren’t in the race, but I stand for principles over politics,” he tweeted on Thursday night. “I commit to pardon Trump promptly on January 20, 2025 and to restore the rule of law in our country.”
That these contenders rushed to defend Trump without knowing the full facts of the indictment—which was unsealed on Friday afternoon—only further lays bare their strategic imperative to align with the former president.
But the facts were perhaps more damaging than anyone imagined: photo evidence of classified document boxes stacked in a Mar-a-Lago bathroom, a cataloging of the sensitive national security secrets he literally waved around to the club’s guests, and quotes of Trump—recorded on tape—detailing exactly how he knew he was breaking the laws in question.
“He’s fucked,” a top adviser from Trump’s 2016 campaign told The Daily Beast. This adviser was skeptical of the political fallout from the Manhattan indictment in the Stormy Daniels hush money case, but suggested the crimes laid out Friday in this new indictment were damning.
The nature of the charges—both their national security content and clear photographic evidence—could have a much more noticeable impact on GOP voters, the Republican added. “It takes a concerted effort to steal nuclear intel,” the Trump alum said. “Anyone who does such has a clear ill intent against America.”
For 2024 contenders looking to displace Trump, the indictment should provide an abundance of material to build a case that the ex-president shouldn’t be trusted with another term in office.
Yet, from Jan. 6 to the Manhattan indictment to now, the ironclad law of the Trump-era GOP—that the former president always emerges from scandals stronger than his critics—has never been seriously challenged.
If the documents indictment does challenge that law and upend GOP politics, it almost certainly won’t be the 2024 field that galvanizes the change.
Look no further than Trump’s top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who responded to the far more serious federal indictment more sympathetically to Trump than he did to the hush money case. In April, DeSantis earned right-wing rage for a light needling of Trump over the seediness of the details of that case.
On Thursday, DeSantis didn’t chance a subtle subtweet. Instead, he argued the Department of Justice’s move was representative of “a mortal threat to a free society,” adding that “the DeSantis administration will bring accountability to the DOJ, excise political bias and end weaponization once and for all.” DeSantis’ allies were also silent as the shocking facts unspooled on Friday.
Other candidates seemed to greet the indictment news cycle on Friday with annoyance, if nothing else. An aide on one rival campaign, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, told The Daily Beast they found the indictment news “a little boring” and not worth the effort.
The only two GOP candidates who didn’t wind up with egg on their faces when the indictment was unsealed were two challengers who have placed their Trump opposition front and center: former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who hasn't yet commented on the news, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who made the modest claim on Thursday that Trump’s alleged criminal conduct means he perhaps shouldn’t be running for president again.
Perhaps relatedly, both are not expected to come close to winning the nomination.
Former Vice President Mike Pence’s attempt to thread the needle while campaigning on Friday illustrated the bind candidates find themselves in—desperately trying not to alienate the MAGA base while still distinguishing themselves from Trump.
At Pence’s first stop in New Hampshire since launching his campaign this week, there was no joy over the indictment, no sense of karmic justice in the air.
Instead, a tepid crowd—and perhaps an even more tepid candidate—showed little interest in Trump-related concerns, save for a separate section of Pence’s speech focused on Jan. 6.
Notably, Pence’s rare attempts at going after Trump mostly fell flat. He won’t even refer to his former boss by name, instead opting for euphemisms such as “my former running mate.” When Pence paused for an apparent applause line about how, unlike Trump, he would always follow the Constitution, nobody clapped.
On the indictment news, Pence ventured a defense of Trump that seemed to reflect a desire to move past the subject as quickly and uneventfully as possible. The former VP said it was “a sad day in America” to see a former president get indicted, arguing that the prosecution of a political leader makes the United States look bad on the global stage. (The indictment had not yet been unsealed when Pence made the comments.)
Yet, Pence also insisted Trump will have a right to due process and expressed confidence in the legal system—just not the Department of Justice under Attorney General Merrick Garland. He ignored a question from The Daily Beast about why the indictment would reflect poorly on the nation if the former president were to go through the legal process just like any other citizen.
“It’s a perception thing,” a Pence aide said as the candidate walked away, later providing The Daily Beast with a quote from Pence’s remarks where he lamented the specific circumstance of Trump being both a former president and a political rival to the current one.
In brief remarks to reporters following a second stop at a diner in Derry, Pence’s critique around the optics of the indictment boiled down to the news breaking on the same day the FBI giving the Republican-controlled House Oversight Committee a document on an alleged bribery scheme from Biden’s time as vice president. It’s become the top attack line from Republicans following the indictment, despite their inability to produce any evidence of an actual scandal.
“The timing on this was troubling to me,” Pence said, despite the fact that Trump pre-empted the news in a post on his own social media platform, with the DOJ announcement reportedly set for Friday. He also called for the unsealing of the indictment, which, unbeknownst to Pence and the reporters asking him questions, had already been released while he was speaking with the press.
Tim Kolojay, a 77-year-old retiree from Hopkinton, New Hampshire—and a former basketball player at Duke University, where he played for the 1966 Final Four team—said he was impressed with how Pence threaded the needle on Trump.
Kolojay, an independent voter, said Pence gave “a tremendous speech” earlier on Friday at the LaBelle Winery in Derry, and didn’t blame Pence for holding back on whatever his genuine thoughts may be about the indictment.
“Mike Pence, don’t forget, is a politician,” Kolojay said. “So he’ll say the right things.”
