Until recently, the ground war in Ukraine seemed to have turned in Vladimir Putin’s favor. Despite some real Ukrainian success stories—their use of drones, for example, to threaten the Russian navy or oil industry—on the front lines Russia has launched a series of offensives to push the defenders back. While not catastrophic for Ukraine, they made the prospect of recapturing occupied territory any time soon that much slimmer.
Then, in early August, Kyiv’s forces broke through Russian defensive lines in a completely unexpected direction: over the border with Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian forces rapidly moved into Kursk, seizing several towns and key roads. Initially, observers thought it might be a small or temporary raid, like those conducted by Ukraine-aligned paramilitary groups last year. Now, however, Ukrainian forces likely hold more than a thousand square kilometers of Russian territory, have taken large numbers of prisoners, and seem more interested in consolidating their gains than disappearing back into Ukraine.
Why would Ukraine launch an offensive into Russia itself? After all, Kyiv’s main goals are to ward off Russia’s offensives and try to reclaim as much Ukrainian territory as possible. But the offensive into Kursk offers several clear opportunities for Ukraine and headaches for a shocked Putin and his commanders.
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One immediate benefit for Ukraine is that attacking Russia itself shifts the narrative in Kyiv’s favor. Instead of losing territory, the Ukrainians are now gaining it. The wider narrative about the direction of the war influences how much Ukraine’s partners are willing to send arms and financial support, so this matters a great deal. It undercuts Russia’s narrative that Ukraine cannot win the war, so the international community should pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to just cut a deal.
The longer Ukraine’s incursion continues, the more pressure Russian commanders face to prioritize it over their own offensives in Ukraine. Some 200,000 Russians have reportedly fled the Ukrainian advance and more Russian forces have moved into the area, though these are not the same units involved in Russia’s offensives. Should they fail to contain or reverse Ukraine’s gains, Russian commanders may have to divert troops from Eastern Ukraine to stabilize things in Kursk.
The attack also sends a political message to the U.S. and other Western partners. For a long time, American officials have been concerned about “escalation,” whether that be sending advanced weapons or allowing them to be used in Russian territory. Zelensky is constantly wrestling with his partners to gain better weapons and permission to use them. Putin and his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, have known exactly what buttons to press to ramp up talk of escalation: Russia is after a nuclear-armed power. So, the biggest point of contention has been whether Ukraine can use externally provided weapons against targets in Russia, such as airbases. Ukraine’s position is that military targets in Russia are legitimate since they are used for attacks on Ukraine. By attacking Kursk, Ukraine is showing that that fighting on Russian territory does not necessarily lead to the type of escalation the Biden administration fears—although, according to the Wall Street Journal, some administration officials still fear an unspecified “fierce retribution” against targets in Ukraine.
The last major benefit for Ukraine is diplomatic. While the amount of Russian territory the Ukrainian military holds is small, it gives Kyiv some political leverage. Should Ukraine seek peace terms in the future, trading the territory they occupy for Russian concessions is an easy win. While peace negotiations are unlikely in the short term, big events like the U.S. presidential election have encouraged Zelensky to hedge his bets.
However, Ukraine’s attack also carries a good deal of risk. The further into Russia they go, the harder it is to maintain supply lines and send reinforcements in a timely manner. Ukraine could quickly run into issues maintaining their grip on the area as Russian reinforcements begin to file in. Like Russia, Ukraine still needs to priorities the front lines of Eastern Ukraine. If Russian forces in Kursk can push back in the coming weeks, Ukraine’s generals may find themselves having to make the same choice as Russia: strip troops from other parts of the front to shore up defenses or cut their losses and keep those forces in place. Should Ukrainian forces pull back to the border, they’d also be giving up the diplomatic leverage and new narrative that the balance of power now favors Kyiv.
On Tuesday, Reuters reported intense battles as Ukraine’s advance came up against newly arrived Russian reserves and heavy weaponry. The Russian defence ministry posted clips of Sukhoi Su-34 bombers striking at what were said to be Ukrainian positions. “The uncontrolled ride of the enemy has already been halted,” said Major General Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen Akhmat special forces unit. “The enemy is already aware that the blitzkrieg that it planned did not work out.”
For the moment, Zelensky appears to be holding his nerve, despite renewed nuclear threats from Moscow. “Russia brought war to others, now it’s coming home. Ukraine has always wanted only peace, and we will certainly ensure peace,” he said in his nightly address on Monday.
