Welcome to Trail Mix, a fun but nutritious snack for your election news diet. See something interesting on the trail? Email me at jake.lahut@thedailybeast.com.
This week, we dive into the real big spender in the GOP primary. Plus, the latest on President Biden’s potential new challenger, and a fake elector donates to the last candidate you’d expect.
Outspending the master
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Vivek Ramaswamy’s polling bump may have peaked in August, but just because he hasn’t been able to outshine Donald Trump doesn’t mean he can’t outspend him.
In both a testament to the Trump campaign’s trimmed-down operating costs and Ramaswamy’s pedal-to-the-metal approach, the 38-year-old entrepreneur’s campaign spent nearly $3 million more than the Trump team in the third quarter, according to disclosures released on Sunday.
Between July 1 and Sept. 30, Ramaswamy’s campaign reported spending more than $12.2 million, according to its latest Federal Election Commission filing. That brings his total campaign spending to a whopping $22.7 million since he began officially “testing the waters” of his candidacy in February.
Not only did Ramaswamy outspend the Trump campaign on the quarter, he also topped the Trump operation’s $22.2 million on the year. (The Trump total goes up to almost $23 million including spending from November and December, when Ramaswamy wasn’t in the arena.) The Trump team only shelled out $9.5 million over the last three months, around $3 million shy of Ramaswamy over the same period.
Top overall expenses from the data-driven first-timer include about $5 million for services associated with polling, research, and political strategy—with $3 million of it going to GOP analytics firm Cygnal, according to data downloaded from the FEC website. That firm, together with conservative media buyer Push Digital, has accounted for $8.2 million in campaign costs.
Trump has also significantly cut back on his campaign’s burn rate, particularly with the rally schedule. The former president is back to doing around two rallies per month, with smaller-scale events filling the gaps. The former president’s rallies can go for as little as a half a million dollars per event to upwards of $2 million.
But Ramaswamy is also outspending his top rival after Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose runaway costs and overextended operation sparked a major staffing shakeup this summer that unseated longtime campaign chief Generra Peck, is also getting outspent by Ramaswamy. The DeSantis campaign disclosed outlays totaling $11 million across the third quarter, for $18.9 million overall, trailing Ramaswamy on both counts.
Unlike Trump and DeSantis, Ramaswamy’s donor base can’t keep up with that kind of spending. As of Sept. 30, his campaign held just $4.2 million in the bank, compared to DeSantis’ $12.3 million and Trump’s intimidating $37.5 million. But that’s in part because Ramaswamy’s donor base is mostly Ramaswamy.
Outside contributors accounted for $6.4 million of Ramaswamy’s third-quarter haul. That’s less than the $11.2 million raised by DeSantis and roughly a quarter of the $24.2 million that flowed to the Trump campaign during Indictment Summer. Nikki Haley, who enjoyed a bump in polls after taking Ramaswamy head-on in the most recent GOP debate, also outraised him, pulling in $8.2 million on the quarter. (Haley only spent around $3.5 million.)
Still, those Ramaswamy donations revealed a significant spike over previous months, thanks in large part to his attention-grabbing antics on the debate floor and in cable news interviews. That brought his total outside fundraising to about $9.5 million. (Ramaswamy also appears to be the only candidate to send out joint fundraising emails with the National Republican Senatorial Committee in recent months, with a default 99:1 split in the NRSC’s favor.)
But the reason Ramaswamy can post such a high burn rate is that, unlike those other candidates, he’s willing and able to front personal cash.
The independently wealthy anti-woke investor—and dubious medical patent huckster—has loaned his campaign $15.2 million thus far. He’s already spent all of it, plus another half, raising the question of when he’ll need another round of self-investment.
But Ramaswamy has also been covering other costs out of pocket as they’ve come up. They include relatively small outlays for communications consulting, food and drinks, and media production, but the biggest cash suck has been his taste for private jets.
To date, Ramaswamy has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on out-of-pocket costs associated with private travel, according to data downloaded from the FEC site. (The data shows about $1.8 million total, but some entries appear duplicated in addition to in-kind offsets.) Ramaswamy also dropped a roughly $3,800 lump sum for in-flight internet services from GoGo.
The FEC has already taken issue with how the campaign has reported Ramaswamy’s in-kind largesse. On Sunday, the same day the campaign filed its third quarter report, they filed amended versions of two previous reports. Those corrected filings came in response to two FEC notices last month flagging improperly reported in-kind contributions from Ramaswamy.
Dean’s list
For all the lingering concerns over President Joe Biden’s age and popularity, a formidable 2024 primary challenger has yet to emerge.
In New Hampshire, there’s a network of Democrats in the state who could potentially help an energetic primary challenger get an early boost. Instead, they’re increasingly turned off by a 54-year-old Minnesota congressman’s moves to prepare a longshot challenge to Biden.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) has been making calls to prospective presidential campaign staffers in New Hampshire in recent weeks, leaving longtime operatives in the state frustrated and confused, according to three Democrats familiar with the discussions.
“He is undercutting President Biden’s re-election and helping Donald Trump,” former New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairwoman Kathy Sullivan told The Daily Beast.
Some Democrats in New Hampshire have been hesitant to take the calls from Phillips, seeing any perceived affiliation with him as tantamount to a political career death sentence.
Sullivan described Phillips as “not a serious candidate” who already missed the deadline for the primary in Nevada, an early state where any upstart would need to compete. “And what’s his rationale? That the President is old? Better old than incompetent, which Phillips is proving himself to be.”
The three-term congressman, a center-left liberal and scion of a Minnesota liquor fortune, has spent months making the case that Biden is too old and unpopular to win a second term against Trump. Despite facing intense blowback from Democrats—which cost him his own job in House leadership—Phillips has continued to inch toward a late entry into the race.
At the very least, he’s put his name on the map.
“I didn’t know who he was until a few weeks ago,” a New Hampshire Democrat with presidential campaign experience told The Daily Beast, requesting anonymity to discuss behind the scenes conversations in party circles.
If he does run, Phillips could take advantage of a big change in the New Hampshire primary tradition that is unique to 2024.
For the first time in modern history, the Republican and Democratic primaries won’t be on the same night. Instead, there will be an unsanctioned Democratic primary the same night Republicans vote in January. Although it won’t be worth any delegates to help win the nomination, the contest offers a free news cycle that’s up for grabs, especially now that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. switched to an independent run for the general election.
Sensing the potential for bad optics in the unsanctioned primary, Democratic operatives are helping Biden with a write-in campaign for a primary not even recognized by the national party,
The experienced operative added that Phillips appears to be misreading the room—a mistake, if he plans to make any real noise in New Hampshire.
“I can tell you that a significant number of New Hampshire Democratic activists have been engaged for weeks now on working on a write-in campaign for President Biden,” the operative said. “The vast number of prominent activists are already committing to the write-in campaign.”
Even those who had been connected to Phillips quickly distanced themselves. Former Obama adviser Bill Burton, first rumored to be helping Phillips, quickly swatted down the idea on Thursday.
“To be clear, this is not something I took seriously even for a second,” Burton said in response to reporting from The Messenger about his potential involvement in a primary challenge. “Someone asked for a conversation and I wasn’t willing to have one.”
While there may have been some bad blood for Phillips to seize upon following the Democratic National Committee’s decision to downgrade New Hampshire’s sacrosanct first in the nation status, party insiders have since moved on and accepted the new order of states voting for the 2024 cycle.
“I think people just think he started this too late,” a top New Hampshire fundraiser and Democratic organizer said. “It’s really late in the game, and I don’t think anybody is taking it seriously at all. They’re focused on whether Biden will be on the ballot, and we’re focused on the House to try and run up the majority. He’s just a distraction.”
While Phillips did land a call with New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley last Thursday, it remains unclear what the two talked about.
After publication of this story, Buckley told The Daily Beast he reminded Phillips of the Oct. 27 filing deadline.
“I told him of course we would be gracious hosts, as is our tradition, but both polling and grassroots interactions in NH reveal a high level of support for President Biden among the likely voters,” Buckley said. “It would be a tough challenge for Phillips or anyone. But sure, c’mon on up!”
Phillips, for his part, described it as “a very friendly conversation” in an interview with Politico, saying he called the chairman to introduce himself “as I contemplate entering the Democratic primary.”
Phillips did not respond to questions from The Daily Beast about his outreach in New Hampshire and the reception it has received.
While Phillips may well will a late bid into existence with a smile and $1,000 to officially register at the state capitol—New Hampshire’s deadline for the presidential primary ballot is Oct. 27—Democrats with extensive experience on these campaigns are skeptical he could get any kind of meaningful operation up and running in such a short time frame, with primary day likely falling on Jan. 23.
“Usually when someone gets in on a prayer, it doesn’t end well,” the longtime Democratic operative said.
Cameron’s MAGA disappearing act
Kentucky Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Daniel Cameron had no problem voicing his support for Trump—and reminding voters that Trump supports him—ahead of the competitive GOP primary in May.
What Cameron did afterward is a different story.
From primary day in May to the second week of October, Cameron mentioned Trump during his public events just 12 times, according to tracker data obtained by The Daily Beast.
Now deep in a fiercely contested election against Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, that’s started to change. Ahead of the Nov. 7 election, Cameron is touting his Trump endorsement more frequently and a pro-Cameron outside group hitting the airwaves to highlight it in a positive light.
The pivot has come amid several scandals for Cameron. Exclusive reporting from The Daily Beast has detailed how his own employees described his office as a “toxic” work environment and unearthed a complaint and lawsuit involving sexual harassment allegations against a workplace supervisor.
A reworked TV spot encompassed the candidate’s conundrum. Cameron plugged the Trump endorsement in an April version of the ad, but omitted the former president entirely from a new version cut for the general, instead leaning more heavily on his ties to law enforcement.
Cameron has fallen behind Beshear in the polls, now sitting outside the margin of error in the most recent surveys and as far behind as 16 points.
The attorney general’s campaign did not return a request for comment.
Pence none the richer
Former Vice President Mike Pence received a donation from one of the Trump 2020 campaign’s fake electors in Georgia, The Daily Beast can exclusively report.
Despite Pence putting his stance against Trump's election fraud lies at the center of his 2024 presidential campaign, this fake elector and his wife were apparently won over—and Pence apparently welcomed their support.
Mark Hennessy, one of the 16 Republicans charged in the fake elector scheme at the heart of former Trump’s criminal case being prosecuted by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, donated $6,600 to Pence’s presidential campaign in August, according to FEC records. Hennessy’s wife, Paula, also donated $6,600 to the Pence campaign on the same day.
Hennessy and the Pence campaign did not return a request for comment.
Campaign lit
‘The George Santos of treasurers.’ What first seemed like a fake campaign treasurer turned into something much, much stranger, Roger Sollenberger and William Bredderman discovered in their latest Santos scoop.
Late stage Pence. Running low on cash and having to lay off staff, former Vice President Mike Pence faces some depressing scenes on the campaign trail, Meryl Kornfield and Marianne LeVine report for WaPo.
Fish or cut bait. As pressure mounts on the GOP presidential field for more candidates to drop out, Republicans are forced to confront whether they learned any lessons from 2016, Jake Lahut reports.
Pritzker PAC. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker sets his sights on abortion rights ballot measures, launching a new PAC to put his money to work in Ohio and Nevada, Grace Panetta reports for The 19th.
