It has been three years since Jan. 6 and we still do not know how the coup attempt turned out.
While the insurrection that was orchestrated by then-President Donald Trump and a cabal of clowns, dupes, and malevolent schemers did not achieve its purpose of stopping the certification by the Congress of Joe Biden as our duly elected president—the group’s attempts to undermine American democracy continue to this day.
While some may see signs that our legal system is performing as it should—in that more than 1,230 people have been charged with federal crimes associated with the events of Jan. 6, and even Trump has been indicted four times on 91 felony counts—three years after we watched hundreds of thugs descend on the Capitol, the jury is still out on whether the right-wing’s efforts to turn America into a minority-ruled autocracy will succeed.
ADVERTISEMENT
We should take that fact in for a moment. We should reflect on it. Trump, his co-conspirators, his political party, and their supporters are on a daily basis still out there, still working to weaken the ability of Americans to vote, still seeking to undermine the rule of law—and worse still, they have a very real chance of prevailing in the 2024 elections.
That’s right, America, the shining city on a hill, could be in its last full year of what passes for democracy. That’s not hyperbole. It’s just where we stand as a nation.
We have always overstated the successes of our institutions at providing freedom, opportunity, and a political voice to all. Women, Black Americans, poor people denied access to education or a fair shake in our courts, and the Native Americans from whom this land was stolen can all attest to that. Further, those savvy to the ways of American politics have long known that a tiny subset of the rich have long had an outsize voice in picking our leaders and setting their agenda thanks to the size of their checkbooks and ability to sidestep the laws that constrain the rest of us.
Further, there are plenty of other societies in the world that have better functioning democracies than we do. The Economist’s Democracy Index ranks the U.S. behind 29 other countries and categorized us as a “flawed democracy.”
That’s charitable. Just think what that score will be after Donald Trump is reelected and implements his plan to be a dictator (for a day), to arrest his opponents, target opponents in the media, and fire civil servants who place loyalty to the Constitution ahead of loyalty to Trump.
Yes, that’s right, a man who threatens to actively attack our system of government that way is one of two people with a chance of becoming our next president.
Despite his public promises to dismantle our system, his coup attempt, his legal entanglements—including being found liable for sexual assault and declared as a fraudster by another court—his theft of the country’s most sensitive secrets, his multiple impeachments, his serial violation of the Constitution’s emoluments clause, and his support for our enemies worldwide—despite all that, there are some polls that show Trump leading in the race to be elected president in November.
How did we get into this predicament? How did we allow America’s nearly 250-year-old experiment in democracy to flirt as it currently does with failure?
There is plenty of blame to go around.
Naturally, the most goes to Trump. But it is not America’s most famous malignant narcissist that has brought us to this point. He would not have gotten this far if the Republican Party did not roll over on its back and say “scratch me where it feels good, Uncle Donald.” The failure of GOP leaders to defend their principles or their past legacy is one of the saddest, ugliest, and most pathetic aspects of Trump’s rise. And make no mistake, the Bushes and other rock-ribbed stalwarts of the “old GOP” played a central role in allowing this to happen.
The lust for power of spineless, principle-less GOP leaders on Capitol Hill, in statehouses across America, and even among those who sought to compete for the 2024 GOP nomination (without actually daring to challenge Trump) has played a central role in nudging us closer to catastrophe. They dared not challenge Trump while in office. The vast majority of them blinked when given the chance to honor their oaths and convict him during his impeachment trials. They shrugged off his racism, his crimes, and his serial betrayals of America. Even Mike Pence—the former vice president whom Trump mobs threatened to kill—mewed and purred and left open the possibility that he might vote for Trump if he were again the candidate.
Of course, a huge portion of the responsibility for us being in this mess goes to the voters of the Republican Party. Now some of these folks are just nuts—about a third of Americans in a recent poll believe God hand-picked Trump to be president. And some are just racists or so greedy that they’ll trade tax cuts for their souls any day of the week.
But there are enough Republican voters that power-hungry GOP pols could be persuaded to fall into line for them. But until someone finds another way to entice this big chunk of the electorate to vote in their own or their country’s self-interest—this threat to our American democracy will remain real. We don’t need all of them to switch over at once.
We just need enough Republicans to say, “Hey, it would be nice if my kids got to vote in an election or my cousin Bob were not thrown into prison for having a Biden lawn sign.” In that case, Joe Biden wins re-election and GOP office seekers can say (after losing yet another election), “MAGA is no longer a winning formula.”
But that brings us to another group that has played a role in getting us to where we are: Democrats who don’t want to be too tough on Trump and the other top coup plotters because it would be “divisive.”
Yes, that’s right. There are folks—respected folks—who are afraid of standing up to a man who is actively engaged in the business of tearing this country apart, whose entire political platform is to deepen the divisions between red and blue America—because it might “tear the country apart.” They don’t seem to realize that the reason the 14th Amendment of the Constitution proscribes insurrectionists from holding high office is precisely because insurrectionists tend to “tear the country apart.” Enforcing the amendment is the cure for this problem, not the disease.
But there are Dems who believe just that, as well as Dems that have wanted to reach out to a Trump base that believes Trump is their savior, and Dems who want to treat the current crisis facing America as politics as usual.
Some of them, in turn, are among the most active defenders of the legal system in this country, a system that also has not proven itself to be up to the challenge posed by Trump and his everlasting coup plotters. The jury on that system that once prided itself on asserting no man is above the law is out.
Why? Aren’t there multiple trials afoot?
Well, for one thing, most of those trials won’t take place before the election. Trump has already done what only the rich can do in our system—what he has done his whole career. He has hired an army of lawyers to use every trick in the book to seek delay.
Average folks can’t afford that. For the wealthy, however, the ability to spend millions on legal fees (and even on fines and settlements) allows them to outlast their opponents, to often ensure that justice is delayed enough to be denied, to make going to court just a cost of doing business that allows them to ignore the statutes and codes we little folks have to honor. (Do you doubt me? Remember during how overheated we got over the Fox News vs. Dominion Voting Systems trial and how big a story the $787 million settlement was? Remember how we thought, “Ha, that’ll teach those bastards!” Well, guess what, they’re still going strong and the reality is the settlement didn’t cost them $787 million either. The payment is tax deductible, after all. Because… you know… no one is above the law except really rich people and corporations.)
Of Trump’s trials, the only one experts see as likely to occur before the election is the case brought by special counsel Jack Smith, to be tried before Judge Tanya Chutkan. But even if Trump is convicted in that case, will he face a real punishment? We don’t know. Many will no doubt say that because he was president he should not be treated harshly. Too divisive, doncha know? And look, we tend not to throw billionaires in jail—even as thousands of average folks are incarcerated while awaiting trial on relatively minor charges.
And we’ve also seen Trump act in contempt of court or commit crimes (stealing classified documents) in ways that would have gotten anyone else thrown in the slammer prior to a trial taking place (paging Reality Winner). And if he does not face a harsh penalty rather than “showing respect for the office” or “avoiding tearing America apart,” what it will do is send an absolutely clear message to Trumpists that he didn’t really do anything wrong in the first place, and also an unmistakable message to the world that some people are indeed above the law in America.
Further, we have to acknowledge that there is a high likelihood the federal cases against Trump and his co-conspirators would be dropped or pardons issued if he were re-elected.
The ways we might conclude by the end of this year that the coup largely succeeded are manifold. Trump can be re-elected. Trump can dodge legal responsibility. Trump can continue to enjoy the support and protection and legitimization of the leaders of his party (helped by the complicity of a bunch of wet Democrats). Trump can be treated as a political leader and not as a serial criminal threat to our national security by the media.
There are, on the other hand, fewer ways we can know the coup failed. One is that Trump can pay a high legal price for his crimes. He can go to jail or otherwise lose his freedom. That could (or should) negatively impact his electability. But even then, if Trump is re-elected such a verdict may not matter.
That means the answer to whether the coup succeeded, in the end, is not ultimately in the hands of the judges or lawyers or powerful politicians or donors.
It is in your hands.
If, in November, a sufficient number of Americans vote for Joe Biden to ensure he wins an electoral college majority that the ongoing MAGA coup cannot negate, then the message will be sent to the world that Americans actually do value democracy enough to protect and preserve it. We will have future elections. We will remain a system of government of, for and by the people.
But be honest. Admit it. That’s no sure thing.
That means not only does it fall upon you to vote in 11 months, unless you actively work to ensure that outcome, make it your responsibility to get out that vote, between now and then, there is still a chance that one year from now, Trump’s coup will be seen as a success and the beginning of a bleak new period in American and world history.