Donald Trump is set to hold a “major donor retreat” next week in Florida, and it could signal the unofficial start of the presidential veepstakes.
According to an invitation obtained by Politico, special guests include “Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina and J.D. Vance of Ohio, as well as Govs. Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Kristi Noem of South Dakota, and Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.).” These, of course, are names frequently mentioned as being on Trump’s shortlist for a presidential running mate.
Trump won’t have to announce his running mate until mid-July, when the Republican National Convention kicks off in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. But time is ticking, and this is a decision with both electoral and governing implications. What is more, Trump’s advanced age (77), coupled with his four impending criminal trial verdicts, may raise the stakes even higher than normal.
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So how will Trump choose? Historically, party nominees seek to balance their ticket in some way with the selection. This balancing could involve geography (to try to win a state), demography (to extend an olive branch to the opposite sex or voters of a different race), philosophy (to appease one part of the coalition), or even age (to give a young candidate some gravitas or, conversely, to give an old candidate some youthful energy).
But Trump is anything but a traditional candidate, and he often acts via his “gut.” He’s also susceptible to flattery, so it is difficult to game out his thinking. Still, I think we know enough at this point to make some educated guesses about what Trump might want and what the possible veep candidates could offer.
Marco Rubio is an intriguing idea, partly because he could help consolidate some of the Nikki Haley wing of the GOP. On paper, this would seem to be a smart move for Trump, but is this how Trump thinks? I’m not so sure.
To complicate matters, Rubio and Trump are from Florida; the 12th Amendment of the Constitution prohibits candidates on the same ticket from inhabiting the same state.
Rubio has a better claim to the state than Trump, but I’m skeptical that Trump would be willing to change his residence. And this leads to a scenario that should give Rubio pause: Word leaks that Rubio is going to be the nominee and that he is willing to relocate to another state. Then, at the last minute, Trump pulls the rug out from under him in humiliating fashion (but not before snapping an embarrassing pic to commemorate the abuse).
Trump is unlikely to pick a 2016 adversary who called him a “con artist” and made fun of his “small hands.” But I wouldn’t be surprised if he toyed with him, either. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
J.D. Vance, an Iraq War veteran and former private equity bro, is another interesting option, and (despite disparaging Trump back in his Hillbilly Elegy days) he has a shot. Whereas Rubio was a prominent senator before Trump got elected, Vance won his seat after Trump became president (with a big assist from Trump’s endorsement).
And whereas Rubio’s reinvention feels somewhat inauthentic, Vance’s conversion into a MAGA populist, for reasons having more to do with vibes than anything else, comes off as more believable. He’s in the running.
Tim Scott ran for president in 2024, but he never really ran against Trump. Then, upon dropping out of the race, he promptly endorsed Trump over Nikki Haley, who appointed him to his Senate seat as governor.
Trump may not respect Scott, but choosing him would balance the ticket with a likable candidate who would be the first African-American vice president (and a go-to yes-man for any of Trump’s harebrained ideas). Scott’s fawning loyalty to Trump is disgusting, which is why he has a chance.
U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) speaks to reporters during a weekly press conference at Capitol Hill in Washington.
Michael McCoy/ReutersI doubt if Trump would choose Burgum or Donalds; the former is still a relatively obscure (yet wealthy) governor of North Dakota, while the latter is a member of the House of Representatives who (like Rubio and Trump) hails from Florida. Again, though, because this is Trump, the old rules are out the window.
That’s why I’m actually pretty bullish on another lowly House member, albeit a member of GOP House leadership, Elise Stefanik. But don’t take my word for it. “Stefanik is at the top,” former Trump strategist Steve Bannon said. He should know.
Stefanik, like Scott, has proven that she will do Trump’s bidding, no matter what. But unlike Scott, who is preternaturally nice, Stefanik is (in Trump’s parlance) a real killer. In other words, she’s loyal and she fights.
This brings us to one of my big assumptions about Trump’s calculus. I don’t think he’s overly concerned about electoral considerations such as playing for a state or a demographic. Having been chastened by Mike Pence’s refusal to back the scheme to not certify the 2020 electoral votes, Trump may prize blind loyalty over all else.
If the game is vicious sycophancy, Stefanik will be hard to beat.
If Trump merely wants to balance the ticket with a female running mate, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem has earned consideration by virtue of her nonstop campaign to suck up to Trump. She’s also a governor, which may be seen as superior to a House member—and she arguably better fits Trump’s image of what a running mate should physically look like.
Meanwhile, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders—who is not mentioned in the invitation—may also be a dark horse for the role.
But if I were a betting man, I would put some money on Stefanik and Vance for the reasons described above.
Until now, this sort of rank punditry has been deemed premature. But there is the sense that the campaign to be Trump’s running mate is about to kick off in earnest, possibly next week, in Florida.
If we know anything about Trump, it’s that he loves dragging these things out and watching people prostrate themselves and fawn over him for his blessing. After long days holed up in a freezing courtroom, the warm praise and adoration in sunny Florida could be just what the doctor ordered.
