Republicans convened again today in their search for a House Speaker, and it doesn’t look promising. They can’t even agree on whether to keep voting behind closed doors or to take their internal battles to the House floor for the public to see firsthand their disarray.
Majority Leader Steve Scalise dropped out of the race late Thursday after realizing he couldn’t bulldoze his way to victory by assuming his fellow Republicans would fall into line. Runner up Jim Jordan, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, quickly assumed the frontrunner’s mantle, but by Friday morning he too faced the same math problem.
Late Friday afternoon, Jordan won the nomination for Speaker Designate, ultimately amassing a reported 124 votes to seven-term Georgia Rep. Austin Scott’s 81 votes—but whether he will win the crown is another matter. Jordan’s narrow margin of victory was hardly emphatic; the next question is whether members vote for Jordan on the house floor, and he ultimately secure the required 217 votes for victory.
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In a conference of 221 Republicans, any presumptive Speaker can only lose 4 or 5 votes to command a “majority of the majority” in a chamber where the votes of Democrats are not courted or wanted.
Amidst the uncertainty and confusion, it was a surprise Scott entered the race; he announced on X, “I have filed to be Speaker of the House. We are in Washington to legislate, and I want to lead a House that functions in the best interest of the American people.”
The 53-year-old Republican has been in elective office since he was in his twenties and was the first Republican in the Georgia House to join with Democrats to remove the Confederate Stars and Bars from the Georgia State flag. He notably was among the Georgia Republicans who accepted the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory, a contrast to Jordan, who opposed the electoral college count on Jan. 6, 2021.
After Scalise withdrew, California Rep. Tom McClintock circulated a “Dear Colleague” letter advocating the return of Speaker Kevin McCarthy via a resolution that would condemn the vote that removed him, re-nominate him, “and then keep voting until enough of our wayward colleagues return to the fold.”
McClintock’s proposal is going nowhere for now, and underscores the rough road ahead. “McCarthy, Scalise and Jordan have spent the last 10 years stabbing each other in the back,” says Jim Kessler with Third Way, a centrist Democrat group. “Finding 217 in this snake pit is going to be hard.”
Kessler added in an email that he didn’t think the final chapter has been written on McCarthy, “but it’s hard to see how he gets back in without Democratic support.” And that support has not been sought by the GOP or offered by the Democrats.
The-not so hidden hand of Trump reveals itself in the jockeying over Jordan. When the former Ohio wrestling coach came up short against Scalise in the secret ballot (99 to 113), it was a loss for Trump, who had endorsed Jordan and talked of a return visit to Congress, his first since the Jan. 6 day of infamy. Trump didn’t show and has been conspicuously quiet about the leaderless House. On Thursday, before Scalise withdrew, Trump told Fox News he didn’t think either Scalise or Jordan could get to 217 votes.
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), a prime contender in the race to be the next Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, speaks to reporters during a break in a House Republican Conference meeting.
Elizabeth Frantz/ReutersThen overnight Jordan emerged as the frontrunner, breathing life into his candidacy and the MAGA dream that for the next year the Republicans in the House chamber would pound away at the “Biden crime family.” But the enthusiasm for Jordan is not universal. There are 18 Republicans in districts Biden won who don’t want a MAGA lightning rod as Speaker. At least five GOP members have gone on the record saying they will not vote for Jordan.
So, what’s next? Unless the GOP goes for broke and brings Jordan’s candidacy to the House floor before they go home for the weekend, knowing it will likely fail, the next step is more candidate forums next week accompanied by a Plan B effort to bolster the power of the temporary Speaker, North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry, so the House can conduct necessary business, including aid for Israel, which is overwhelmingly supported in both parties.
It’s hard to find a leader when people don’t want to be led. Various factions for various reasons didn’t want Scalise, and they’re all flexing their individual petty power. This opens the door to dark horse candidates who haven’t sought the position, like Scott, who has no national reputation. McHenry, the temporary Speaker, could also be pulled into the race with others like Rep. Tom Cole, a voice of reason from Oklahoma and Tom Emmer, currently the third in GOP leadership and a natural to move up.
They’ll come back on Tuesday and try again, and they’ll be no closer to avoiding another government shutdown looming in mid-November. If there’s no end in sight, it will be left to responsible lawmakers to find work arounds like they did when McCarthy was in power and with Democratic votes kept government open.
The late entry of Scott raises the question of just how far down the list of possible speakers will Republicans go before they run out of options and are forced to turn to the Democrats for help. For everybody’s sake, the clown show should end sooner than later.
