Tim Walz was a dud as vice presidential pick. He added zero to the ticket. In his one big moment—the vice-presidential debate with J.D. Vance—he got beat. Badly. And looked hopelessly out of his depth.
None of this is to say that if Kamala Harris had picked someone other than Walz she would be president right now. History tells us that VP picks almost never make any real difference. And I think that’s true this time too. Had Harris picked, say, Josh Shapiro, she still would have lost.
To my mind then, Walz was a sort of historical blip. Plucked from relative obscurity and then, after losing, sent back to that relative obscurity. Which isn’t nothing! Being a governor of a state is a big deal! Being the VP nominee is a huge deal!
But, in politics, water usually finds its level. And Walz’s level was not—and is not—national politics.
This is obvious to anyone who has spent any amount of time covering or watching politics. It is not obvious, however, to Tim Walz.
Since the election loss, Walz has slowly but surely tried to fashion a narrative that he was under-utilized during the campaign. And that had he been properly deployed a) he would have shined and b) Harris might have won. Witness this recent story from CNN on Walz—and this line in particular:
Walz says now he should have been doing events all through last fall. He says he offered, but was told no, and in his bewildered daze, he decided to be a team player.
A few things:
1. The job of the VP nominee is literally to be a team player. Like, that’s the gig.
2. If you think that the answer to Democrats’ problems in the 2024 election was “more Tim Walz,” I have a terrific up-and coming-video company named Blockbuster you might be interested in.
This is not the first time that Walz has done some backseat driving about what went wrong in 2024. Or the first time he has concluded that the solution to what ailed the campaign was MORE TIM WALZ.
Here’s Walz diagnosing the problems with the campaign earlier this month in an interview with Politico:
I think we probably should have just rolled the dice and done the town halls, where (voters) may say, ‘you’re full of shit, I don’t believe in you.’ I think there could have been more of that… We, as a party, are more cautious…in football parlance, we were in a prevent defense to not lose when we never had anything to lose because I don’t think we were ever ahead.
I actually think he’s right about that. But, the problem is that the risk-averse strategy Walz is decrying is the only reason he was picked as VP! Harris wanted someone who wouldn’t overshadow her didn’t have national political ambitions of his own.
Of course, every politician who has had a taste of being a candidate for national office wants more of it. Walz is no exception. Hence his decision to embark on a tour of Republican-friendly congressional districts this year. Again, CNN:
As many Democratic voters have moved since November from dejection, to panic, to curdling anger at party leaders who haven’t come up with a better way of fighting back, Walz’s answer is a tour of Republican House districts to listen to stories of desperation, call on Democrats to lay out a policy agenda with clearer direct benefits for voters and try to build a new sense of community that he says he hadn’t realized his party had lost so much.
Here’s my guess: Walz probably runs for a third term as governor next year. Because why not? It’s a midterm year with a likely unpopular incumbent Republican president and in a Democratic-leaning state, he likely wins. At which point, he will offer some blandly vague answers about running for president in 2028. And then admit he is, yes, thinking about it because so many people—eye roll—are asking him to consider it.
I could also see Walz deciding against a third term in 2026 but trying to emerge as one of the voices filling the current leadership void within the party—he’s already sort of doing that now—and, when asked, offer some blandly vague answers about running for president in 2028. And then admit he is, yes, thinking about it because so many people —eye roll—are asking him to consider it.
To be clear: I am extremely skeptical that Walz is a real player come 2028. Nothing I saw during the campaign—or after it—suggests to me he is that guy.
But Walz absolutely has caught a case of “main character” syndrome. He seems to have convinced himself that he is a major player. That the Democratic party is clamoring for what he is selling. And that if only he had been unleashed—or something—on the campaign trail in 2024, things would have been different.
It reminds me a little bit of Uncle Rico.
Walz is, of course, entitled to his own opinion. But not to his own facts. And the facts of the 2024 race are these:
1. He was picked as VP because of a single viral TV clip—the whole “weird” thing—and because he offered no threat to Harris.
2. Once the initial hype machine efforts—he’s a football coach! he’s a normal guy!—wore off, Walz was beset by a number of negative stories including that he had misremembered whether he had been in Tiananmen Square during the massacre in 1989.
3. His performance in the VP debate with Vance was mediocre at best.
4. The Harris campaign realized that he was not an asset, and largely hid him from view in the final weeks of the race.
Again, Walz may run for president in 2028! It’s a wide-open field. And he clearly thinks the public is longing for him. But, objectively, they aren’t. Walz is a supporting actor. Not a lead guy.
He’s just the last guy to realize it.
Want more ball and strike calling—no matter what uniform the batter at the plate is wearing? Check out Chris Cillizza’s Substack and YouTube channel.
