Aside from the confirmed performances, few things are certain to go down at this Sunday’s Grammy Awards ceremony at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Host Trevor Noah will spend a good five minutes overexplaining the concept of music and how it unites us all, especially in times of war, in his opening monologue. He’ll make an obligatory reference to The Slap Seen ’Round The World at the Oscars the weekend prior. And his new foe and Album of the Year nominee Kanye West, who may or may not be in attendance, will not be performing his collaboration with The Game, “Eazy,” as was originally scheduled. (Although, it wouldn’t be surprising if Noah and West announced that they squashed their beef via a reenactment of Will Smith’s infamous slap that ends in a dap. There goes your free bit!)
The rest of the night is trickier to forecast—particularly which musicians will actually take home trophies. In recent years, the Recording Academy has been put on blast by former insiders and major artists for a lack of transparency regarding their voting process, which included anonymous expert committees who determined the final ballots, and accusations of sexism and racism deployed by executive members. With a notoriously sketchy voting system that has purportedly undergone some changes following The Weeknd’s boycott of the Grammys in 2020 (but who really knows), it’s hard to guess not just which songs, albums and artists the music industry was really loving this year but whether the Grammys even truly represent their voices.
Still, the show has been around long enough that one can spot certain trends and understand the type of musician or body of work the Recording Academy values. While certain nominations seem extremely arbitrary and largely unheard of by the masses—does anyone know that Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile have a song together?—the winners have been easy to predict. Even when the winner for Record or Album of the Year feels randomly pulled out of a hat, you shrug and say, “That’s the Grammys.”
Over the past two years, it seems like the biggest determinant in whether an artist will win a major category is if their name rhymes with Dillie Deilish. It also helps if you have blonde hair and compose songs with Jack Antonoff. Despite these two Grammys staples being present in the nominations, I think there’s room for some other artists to walk away with the night’s major awards.
Here are some predictions for Sunday’s show.
Record of the Year
“I Still Have Faith In You” - ABBA
“Freedom” – Jon Batiste
“I Get a Kick Out of You” – Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga
“Peaches” – Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon
“Right on Time” – Brandi Carlile
“Kiss Me More” – Doja Cat featuring SZA
“Happier Than Ever” – Billie Eilish
“Montero (Call Me by Your Name)” – Lil Nas X
“Drivers License” – Olivia Rodrigo
“Leave the Door Open” – Silk Sonic
It would be quite the full-circle moment for Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak’s superduo Silk Sonic to take home this prize for their No. 1 single “Leave the Door Open,” given that they had to publicly beg the Grammys to let them perform the song on last year’s telecast. It would also be some nice promo for their Las Vegas residency. The other obvious frontrunner here is Olivia Rodrigo, who fits the sort of young singer-songwriter/ingenue mold the Grammys seem to love. However, it’s easy to imagine the voters who would pick Rodrigo also going for Eilish and, therefore, splitting the votes between them. Justin Bieber’s “Peaches” also feels like a frontrunner, given its ubiquitous presence on the radio and social media. However, I ultimately think the traditionally safe Academy will honor Mars and .Paak’s Motown tribute act.
Song of the Year
“Bad Habits” - Ed Sheeran
“A Beautiful Noise” - Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile
“Drivers License” - Olivia Rodrigo
“Fight For You” - H.E.R.
“Happier Than Ever” - Billie Eilish
“Kiss Me More” - Doja Cat featuring SZA
“Leave the Door Open” - Silk Sonic
“Montero (Call Me by Your Name)” - Lil Nas X
“Peaches” - Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon
“Right on Time” - Brandi Carlile
Again, Silk Sonic taking this one seems extremely likely. However, R&B artist H.E.R. won this award last year for “I Can’t Breathe,” a song that the average person has probably never heard but apparently made an impact on the Academy following the global Black Lives Matter protest. “Fight For You,” which she wrote for the 2020 film Judas and the Black Messiah, also earned her an Oscar, so it wouldn’t be a total shock if she won a Grammy for it as well. Anything besides Ed Sheeran’s boring hedonism record is honestly acceptable.
Album of Year
We Are - Jon Batiste
Love for Sale - Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga
Justice - Justin Bieber
Planet Her - Doja Cat
Happier Than Ever - Billie Eilish
Back of My Mind - H.E.R.
Montero - Lil Nas X
Sour - Olivia Rodrigo
Evermore - Taylor Swift
Donda - Kanye West
As much as the Recording Academy loves youth, they also love Tony Bennett, who’s won 19 Grammys throughout his career and received five nominations this year, all for his work with Lady Gaga on Love for Sale. Considering his recent retirement due to an Alzheimer’s diagnosis, the Academy could possibly choose to honor his decades-spanning career the way they honored Ray Charles by giving him AOTY in 2005 following his death. Largely, though, the Grammys has not been known for displaying thoughtfulness or awarding culture-defining artists in the appropriate moment. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if they wasted that opportunity and gave Eilish what feels like her millionth phonogram in just three years.
Again, I think the 20-year-old will be in a tight race with Rodrigo. It comes down to whether voters will value a strong sophomore release over a blockbuster debut album. Recently, it’s seemed like the Academy wants artists to put a little bit more work in before handing them the big prize—until Eilish showed up, of course.
Best New Artist
Aroof Aftab
Jimmie Allen
Baby Keem
Finneas
Glass Animals
Japanese Breakfast
The Kid Laroi
Arlo Parks
Olivia Rodrigo
Saweetie
Out of all the major categories Rodrigo’s nominated in, this seems like hers to win. So much of this particular award relies on a compelling public narrative, who made the boldest entrance onto the popular music scene and, obviously, youth. In that way, The Kid Laroi also stands a pretty good chance of snatching this one, as a teenage SoundCloud rapper from Australia who put out one of the most ubiquitous tunes of the year with Bieber, “STAY.” On a less exciting note, the Grammys are also deeply enamored with Billie Eilish’s brother and producing partner Finneas. Him winning as a solo artist in the category, considering his Grammy sweeps over the past two years, feels slightly unfair to the true industry freshmen among the nominees. But it very much could happen.
Best Pop Vocal Album
Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe) – Justin Bieber
Planet Her (Deluxe) – Doja Cat
Happier Than Ever – Billie Eilish
Positions – Ariana Grande
Sour – Olivia Rodrigo
Since so many of the artists here are present in the three general categories, it feels appropriate to include Best Pop Vocal Album in my predictions. It was exciting to see Dua Lipa’s Future Nostalgia collect this award last year despite losing Album of the Year. Likewise, it would be nice to see Ariana Grande or Rodrigo take home this award, given the latter probably won’t win Album of the Year and Grande isn’t even nominated in that category. Considering how successful each of these albums were, it will inevitably be a tight race. But I ultimately see the women’s votes being split, and the award going to Bieber.
