On Monday, Donald Trump delivered a clear message to anti-abortion conservatives: The party’s over. Don’t count on getting anything else from me.
Truth be told, the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade was a big deal, and Trump is still claiming credit for getting it done. But overturning Roe did not make abortion go away; the Dobbs v. Jackson decision sent the abortion issue back to the states. And on Monday, Trump made it clear that, if he has anything to say about it, that’s where the issue will stay.
As Trump said on Monday, “...whatever they decide must be the law of the land, and in this case, the law of the state.” Trump continued, “Many states will be different, many will have a different number of weeks, or some will have more conservative [laws] than others, and that’s what they will be.”
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Now, it’s entirely defensible for an intellectually honest person to stake out a “federalism” position, which essentially argues that state governments should be making these decisions. But one imagines political pragmatism—not principle—explains Trump’s cop out.
David French, a Never Trump conservative columnist for The New York Times went so far as to say, “By the standards of the pro-life movement, Trump is now pro-choice. He doesn't oppose state measures upholding abortion rights, and he opposes federal limits. He even said ‘follow your heart’ and ‘do what's right for yourself.’”
French went on to ask, “I wonder how all those MAGA people will vote who've told me they'll NEVER support a pro-choice candidate.”
I think we know the answer to that question. But let’s be honest. If any other Republican were to espouse a similar position, they would probably be pilloried right now as a sellout from the right. “Why don’t they fight?!?” the right-wing entertainment complex might ask. “What has conservatism conserved?” they might also ask.
These questions are not entirely absurd. Wasn’t the goal of overturning Roe to protect unborn children? If one believes a proper role of limited government is to protect the right to life, wouldn’t it make sense to have an across-the-board ban on abortion after some point, be that six weeks or (a more moderate) 15 weeks?
One prominent Trump supporter, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), thinks so. “I respectfully disagree with President Trump’s statement that abortion is a states’ rights issue,” Graham said on Monday, adding, “The science is clear—a child at 15 weeks is well-developed and is capable of feeling pain.”
Having overturned Roe, shouldn’t the next front in this culture war require a champion who wants to advance the ball? Surely hardcore abortion opponents see that as the next logical step in their long-term plan.
Case in point: Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America’s president, Marjorie Dannenfelser, said Trump’s new position “...cedes the national debate to the Democrats who are working relentlessly to enact legislation mandating abortion throughout all nine months of pregnancy.”
But it’s safe to say that Trump had the leverage to take this moderate position precisely because he has social conservatives like Graham and Dannenfelser in his hip pocket. Indeed, Dannenfelser has conceded that—despite Trump’s new position—she will still work “tirelessly” to defeat Biden.
This is a far cry from what Dannenfelser said just last year, which is that anyone who opposed a federal ban “disqualified him or herself as a presidential candidate in our eyes.”
To be sure, I suspect that Trump’s latest position is probably politically sagacious. If you are a cynical political strategist, having complete flexibility to tack to the center without fear of sparking a mutiny is a bonus. But if your goal is to restrict abortion, you might be better served to preserve some leverage.
The trouble is, social conservatives were always a cheap date. Trump knows that they will never abandon him, regardless of what he says or does.
It’s entirely possible that this very dynamic might help Trump win the 2024 presidential election and simultaneously guarantee that social conservatives end up saying, “Donald Trump overturned Roe, and all I got was this lousy t-shirt.”
In his statement, Trump stressed that he can only impose his agenda and win the culture war if he wins the election. “You must follow your heart on this issue,” he said in his Truth Social video. “But remember, you must also win elections to restore our culture and, in fact, to save our country, which is currently and very sadly a nation in decline.”
But for abortion opponents, it’s fair to ask: What good is winning if the abortion rate increases on your watch (as it did during Trump’s presidency)? What good is winning if the anti-aboriton cause (even in red states) collapses electorally (as it has in the wake of Dobbs)? What good is winning if your champion doesn’t want to see this fight through to the end?
“President Trump’s retreat on the Right to Life is a slap in the face to the millions of pro-life Americans who voted for him in 2016 and 2020,” tweeted Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, who went on to note that “today, too many Republican politicians are all too ready to wash their hands of the battle for life.”
This statement comes on the heels of Pence saying he would not endorse his former boss for president in 2024.
Few social conservatives have such moral clarity.
All I can say to the many abortion opponents who made their deal with Trump is that you had your chance in 2024 to say, “Thanks for the Supreme Court win, now I’m voting for Ron DeSantis. Or Mike Pence.” Instead, you made yet another deal with the devil. It’s too late to bitch about Trump.
