It appears increasingly likely that the 2020 Democratic primary field will be the most wide open in recent memory, and perhaps in the history of American politics.
The Daily Beast spoke with opposition researchers and operatives in both parties to get a sense of what could prove helpful and harmful for candidates. These are the individuals whose job it is to understand and exploit the vulnerabilities of those running for office. All of them cautioned that their perspectives were not the same as predictions. But they still had insights to share, which The Daily Beast will be presenting in a multi-part series. Today, we look at Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), who ran one of the most closely watched Senate campaigns in recent history—a nearly successful attempt to topple Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) that helped him build a rabid fan base and prompted tons of presidential chatter.
Beto O’Rourke
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O’Rourke proved to be a fundraising machine in his run against Ted Cruz, raising the most money in a Senate campaign ever. He did so with small-dollar contributions and a stripped-down approach that allowed voters to see him every step of the way: in his car, on a skateboard, cooking, and eating burgers.
Seasoned Democratic officials have said that O’Rourke has an authenticity and effortless zeal that makes him both a unique candidate and attractive to voters. It also made him a viral star, with videos of him addressing hot-button cultural and political issues getting millions of views and, in turn, attracting new donors and supporters.
But O’Rourke is not necessarily a bleeding-heart progressive, as he himself would admit. His limited experience and ideological malleability allowed for Texans to project some of their views onto him as he approached campaigning with soaring rhetoric and an urge for unity. It, of course, did not hurt that he was up against an incumbent reviled by Democrats.
But that malleability doesn’t always translate in a presidential primary, particularly one where ideological differences could play such a large role. Already O’Rourke has come under criticism by some pundits on the left for his record in Congress, including his votes on a bill that challenged the authority of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and others pertaining to the financial industry as well as the donations he received from employees (not corporate executives) of the oil and gas industry.
What has emerged is a media-driven narrative that the Texas Democrat is in some proxy war with Sen. Bernie Sanders, though that representation is not entirely grounded in fact. Some former staffers for Sanders’ last presidential bid have indicated that after working on O’Rourke’s Senate bid, they’d be interested in joining a prospective presidential campaign. As to whether there is any animus between the two potential candidates, Sanders offered praise for the excitement O’Rourke generated during a November interview with The Daily Beast.
What is true is that O’Rourke represents a more center-left ideological leaning than some of his potential opponents, with a Congressional record that is not stocked with any groundbreaking accomplishments. And that, opposition researches note, could pose complications for him as he’s asked to explain major achievements beyond a Senate campaign that fell painfully short.
O’Rourke can make up for it elsewhere, operatives note. His approach to politics is far more inclusive and experimental than most others. Indeed, what jump-started his national spotlight was a live-streamed road trip with his Republican colleague Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX).
Should O’Rourke seek the presidency, he will likely deploy that same approach. But he will have to make changes elsewhere, including dramatically scaling up his famously pollster-absent operation without negatively impacting his perception with voters. One question confronting operatives is whether he can retain a positive message in a cutthroat primary. When the staff gets larger how much control does he cede to people whose political instincts might not be as sound as his?
Operatives also are waiting to see how he stands up to heightened scrutiny in a presidential primary, with one wondering whether he’s more of a John Edwards than a Barack Obama, referring to the promise both men had for Democratic voters and the different trajectories their careers took. They seem to think his ceiling is high, but at this point, undetermined.
“Let’s see how he takes a punch,” one told The Daily Beast.
Tomorrow, we talk to oppo researchers about the strengths and weaknesses of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), who is viewed as one of the Democratic Party’s fastest rising stars but who may be undercut by a relative lack of experience on the national stage.
