Conventional wisdom has not caught up with the rapidly changing reality of American politics. For Democrats, the failure of the Senate to convict Donald Trump and the disciplined obstinacy of the GOP in blocking or slowing Cabinet appointments and initiatives of the Biden administration have produced widespread frustration. That feeling is compounded by the confidence exuded by Republicans that they may rebound in the 2022 midterm elections and that their party superstar may win again in 2024.
But a closer analysis tells a different story.
The Donald Trump who lumbered onto CPAC’s stage this past weekend was a hollow parody of the man who energized many in his party just four years ago. Trump has entered the Fat Elvis stage of his career. He slurs out the hits of yesteryear for crowds of fans hoping to glimpse his old magic, to recapture a thrill that once had them whooping and chanting and participating in Trump flotillas.
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Meanwhile, quietly, steadily, the Democrats find themselves in the midst of a quiet revolution led by Joe Biden. This president, a pillar of the D.C. establishment for 50 years, is not only shaking up expectations but has significant political winds at his back.
For starters, while the GOP is showing signs of imploding. The House and Senate impeachment votes showed important fissures within the party about the continued leadership of Donald Trump. While some who were willing to speak out against him, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, have backtracked in the weeks since the Senate trial, others including House GOP Whip Liz Cheney, Rep. Adam Kinzinger and Senator Mitt Romney have remained critical of Trump.
At the CPAC event, Trump attempted to dismiss the idea that the party was facing a “civil war” before talking about it by stating that, “The only division is between a handful of Washington DC establishment political hacks… and the rest of the country.” He also named a dozen targets and called for the party to “get rid of them all.” But while the faithful cheered him and clamored to be photographed beside a golden statue of the disgraced former president, polling there told a mixed story. He was the favored candidate for 2024, but only with the support of 55 percent of the delegates. And only two out of three of them indicated they want him to run again, much lower than his traditional levels of support.
That said, Trump made it clear he plans to remain visible. Democrats should welcome that, given both his lackluster performance in Orlando and the growing web of legal challenges he faces. The legal jeopardy faced by Trump is so grave that the website Just Security has launched a Trump litigation tracker that currently shows a dozen major legal cases looming ahead for Trump and the Trump Organization.
Other ills also seem likely to dog the GOP. White supremacist extremists have become the face of the party since Jan. 6 and are likely to remain a visible reminder of its moral and intellectual bankruptcy. It no longer stands for anything and what it once stood for—from patriotism to family values to fiscal prudence to national security know-how—are ideas blown sky-high by the Trump presidency.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden has not just been governing effectively, he has been building popular support. His positive rating is now 61 percent, higher by a dozen points than Trump’s ever was. Further, even with GOP obstructionism, Biden is posed to win passage of a major COVID relief initiative. In fact, the absence of GOP support on the Hill for the measure will likely be a big political plus for Biden and the Democrats, because the relief package is overwhelmingly popular with 76 percent of Americans supporting it.
While Republicans on the Hill may attack Biden for being unable to achieve his stated goal of bipartisanship, the president has simply sidestepped them and their cynically obstructionist tactics and sought bipartisanship of a more important type—from the electorate. Sixty percent of Republicans support the measure; 70 percent of Independents support it; only one in six Americans actually oppose it.
Biden, the D.C. insider, is the one who has actually bypassed the establishment. He has taken his pitch retail. And by delivering what people in both red states and blue states need, by governing rather than politicking, he is building a strong hand for 2022.
Next up: a major job-creating infrastructure package. While the package may total over $2 trillion over 10 years, it will be offset in part by revenue measures. And much of what it offers will truly be investments rather than just spending, a way to employ millions in good paying jobs while making the country stronger in areas like telecoms, IT, power generation, roads, bridges, and green tech. Again, it is a measure supported by a big, bipartisan majority with eight in 10 Americans believing that “investing in infrastructure will stimulate the economy and is vital for future growth.”
It should be noted that one of the things Biden is doing here that is also revolutionary and winning approval—not just from the people but from many in the business and financial communities (including the Fed)—is ignoring the inflation and deficit hawks whose thinking has limited Democratic initiatives since the 1990s.
Biden is listening to progressives in the party and also noting the great opportunity that near-zero interest rates create. Borrowing is very nearly free these days. The low cost of money is an opportunity and the need is great. The result is a Democratic president clearly emulating the most revolutionary Democratic president of the past 100 years, Franklin Roosevelt, by being bold, by going to the people if Washington wasn’t listening and by offering what is, in essence, a New Deal 2.0. His hand is also made stronger by tapping into long-term demographic trends in the U.S. with grassroots political strategies of the type that flipped outcomes in Georgia and Arizona from red to blue in 2020.
Naturally, Biden and many Democrats are frustrated that key measures, like a higher minimum wage, are for the moment blocked by the GOP. They also see the GOP heeding the advice of Trump by actively pursuing hundreds of voter suppression measures across the country.
Nonetheless, while there are areas of concern, thanks to Biden, the failings of the GOP, and a changing U.S. there is growing evidence to suggest that it won’t be too long before Democrats are once again singing along to that old favorite, Happy Days are Here Again.
