Democrats are in serious trouble, as we’re in the midst of witnessing a once-unthinkable shift in American political demographics. And despite first lady Jill Biden channeling her husband’s proclivity for public gaffes, her recent embarrassing comparison of Latinos to “tacos” is not the reason Hispanics are fleeing the party in droves.
For all of my life, Democrats have been the party of the working man, while Republicans have been perceived as the party of the rich. These stereotypes, which date back to at least Franklin Roosevelt (and helped Democrats control the House of Representatives for four decades), were an almost indelible brand for decades.
A more recent (but decades-long) assumption held that the growing number of Hispanics in America would be a sort of deus ex machina for Dems—and that Republicans were destined to be an almost exclusively white (and shrinking) party.
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Both assumptions appear to be crumbling. “For the first time in a Times/Siena national survey,” writes The New York Times’ Nate Cohn, “Democrats had a larger share of support among white college graduates than among nonwhite voters—a striking indication of the shifting balance of political energy in the Democratic coalition.”
“Democrats’ hopes for retaining power rest on nonwhite voters remaining a reliable part of the party’s coalition,” writes Axios’s Josh Kraushaar, which indicates it is, in fact, Democrats who are in disproportionate danger as America’s demographics change. Meanwhile, the attrition of white college graduates also poses a serious challenge for Republicans in key suburban districts.
This reordering has the potential to change everything we think we know about politics. So how did it happen? I have thoughts.
First, Democrats bought into the notion that demography was destiny and that a “coalition of the ascendant” would emerge to provide them with ample young Hispanics who would vote blue in perpetuity. This belief allowed them to quit worrying about keeping those pesky working-class white voters—the blue-collar Dems who increasingly clung to guns and religion—in the coalition.
To make up for alienating this part of the old FDR coalition, Democrats wouldn’t just have to win Hispanic votes—they would have to dominate them. Instead, some portion of Hispanics appear to be turned off by “wokeism,” while a sizable portion of Hispanics are also prioritizing their working-class status over their racial identity. “Republicans appear to be making new inroads among nonwhite and working-class voters—perhaps especially Hispanic voters—who remain more concerned about the economy and inflation than abortion rights and guns,” writes the Times’s Cohn.
Second, the rise of Twitter created a world where very online Democrats could mistakenly believe that their views (boosted and spread by mostly highly educated white progressives) are indicative of the nation at large. (Spoiler alert: They aren’t.) As a result, Dems (who, again, assumed demographics were on their side) increasingly prioritized their messaging around social justice activism, scolding people for not being sufficiently compliant with ever-changing gender identity rules, and equating any criticism of immigration policy with racism.
Aside from creating a self-reinforcing echo chamber where progressives talk to themselves all day, Twitter also empowered average Americans to get an unfiltered glimpse of what highly educated people in academia, media, and social justice activist circles really believe. Many of these beliefs are radically out of step with mainstream American values. The result has been rhetoric and hashtags that alienate erstwhile sympathetic voters.
Lastly, modern political figures got us here. Barack Obama’s two terms in the White House convinced Democrats that the old rules had changed and that they had the wind at their backs. Then, in 2016, lacking Obama’s charisma or built-in African American support base, Hillary Clinton felt pressure to move leftward—in order to garner enough excitement to turn out the Obama coalition.
Donald Trump’s unlikely arrival on the scene also mattered. He repositioned the GOP as a more (at least in theory) populist party that abandoned then-conservative positions on items like spending and entitlements. Trump’s over-the-top rhetoric and chaotic presidency also radicalized progressives, causing them to want to emulate his norm-busting behavior, in reverse.
But just as Trump helped attract new voters to the GOP, he alienated college-educated women, the only cohort that—according to an NBC News report in April—has become bluer since 2018.
Getting to this point took decades of time, a technological revolution, and political candidates who reimagined what a winning political coalition could look like. The result is “arguably the biggest political story of our time,” according to Kraushaar.
Although Democrats had a first-mover advantage, their shift toward wokeism, coupled with an aggressive identity politics play for Hispanics, appears to have been fateful.
But the larger problem is that Democrats do not appear to be interested in doing anything to widen their appeal, or even to accept reality. Every time things don't bounce their way, Dems blame Trump, Fox News, Russia, or “messaging.” But they don’t appear to be doing any soul-searching about why they are losing market share to a party that nominated Donald Trump and helped incite the Capitol riot.
Complicating matters, there are reasons to believe that Democrats are currently in position to avoid a red wave in the November 2022 midterms—as down-ballot candidates continue to outpoll the president.
One irony in American politics is that both sides keep winning just enough to prevent them from doing the hard work. And it would be ironic if a surprisingly good midterm result makes it even less likely that Democrats will address their long-term problems.
If you thought Democrats would see the writing on the wall and do whatever it takes to prevent Donald Trump from getting back in the White House, think again.
