On a night where Democrats shockingly outperformed expectations, and many of Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidates lost winnable seats, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis unofficially launched his 2024 presidential campaign and threw a wrench in the 45th president’s re-election plans. DeSantis’ decisive victory over former Gov. Charlie Crist didn’t just confirm that Florida is now a reliably red state, it spotlighted an uncomfortable reality for President Joe Biden—which is that Donald Trump may very well not be the Republican nominee in 2024.
Unless you live in Florida, the GOP’s expected red wave looked more like a red puddle. It certainly wasn’t the 60-seat victory predicted by House Minority Leader (and wannabe House Speaker) Kevin McCarthy.
Marc Thiessen, a staunch Republican and Trump supporter, summed up the midterms in a brutally honest takedown of his party:
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“That is a searing indictment of the Republican Party. That is a searing indictment of the message that we have been sending to the voters. They looked at all of that, and looked at the Republican alternative, and said ‘no thanks.”
The same cannot be said for the current governor of Florida. As someone who has had a front-row seat to both of DeSantis’ gubernatorial victories, (I served as a senior adviser to both the Crist campaign and on Andrew Gillum’s 2018 gubernatorial campaign) Democrats should not let their successes distract them from the most critical question: should Joe Biden run for re-election?
If DeSantis narrowly beat a progressive in Andrew Gillum, but ran up the score on a moderate in the mold of Joe Biden, what does that say for the president's re-election chances?
No matter who the candidate is, defeating DeSantis in a general election would be no cakewalk for Democrats. The Florida governor has the type of cutthroat instincts, and unique ability to tap into right-wing anger, that can only be rivaled by Trump. The former president’s political and legal baggage undoubtedly contributed to his loss in 2020. And that baggage has only gotten heavier.
DeSantis’ prodigious fundraising ability and youth isn’t just a threat to Trumpworld, it’s a genuine concern for Biden’s all-but-certain re-election campaign.
It’s one thing to defeat a scandal-plagued president who botched the initial COVID response, has little discipline, and was never popular at any point in his presidency. It’s quite another to defeat an extremely popular, twice-elected governor who appears to have taken a once-reliably purple state and turned it deep red. The political calculus President Biden made when he said he expected to run for re-election is no longer the political reality facing democrats post midterms.
As I wrote for The Daily Beast last March:
“Joe Biden was always meant to be a bridge, not a superhighway… The allure of President Biden was never an eight-year presidency that would re-shape the country and inspire a new generation of Democrats. It was meant to move America back to a place where the president didn’t cause global anxiety over whatever he saw on Fox & Friends that morning…”
After last night’s stunning showing, there can be no more denying the fact that Democrats do indeed have a deep bench.
Maryland Governor-elect Wes Moore, twice-elected Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania Gov.-elect Josh Shapiro, can all make the case that they would be equally (if not better) suited to take on Ron DeSantis in a general election than the president, who would be 82 at the start of a second term if re-elected.
Much like DeSantis, all three Democratic victors are young, charismatic governors with the potential to represent the future of their parties. That future could be sooner than the White House would like to admit.
President Biden’s most-convincing campaign argument was that only he could assemble the coalition necessary to beat Trump. Even if Trump is the 2024 GOP nominee—something that is in no way predetermined—Trump 2024 is not Trump 2020, much less 2016. He’s more beatable than ever, which makes Biden’s main qualification as a Trump-beater less exclusive.
But in the event Trump is not on the ballot, Biden and his team should consider whether the results of the midterms have completely changed the political landscape. There is honor in not running for re-election. Despite the White House’s sensitivities over any pushback from fellow Democrats, they would be well served to take a compliment and a critique at the same time.
President Biden has done a great job. He’s passed historic legislation and brought some semblance of stability to the executive branch. With that said, the White House cannot ignore the fact that Democrats like Whitmer, Shapiro, and Pennsylvania Sen.-elect John Fetterman all outperformed President Biden in their states.
While Biden certainly wasn’t a drag on the ticket—as many pundits feared he would be—it’s no time for a White House victory. With an approval rating underwater by 12 points, Biden’s not exactly electoral lightning in a bottle.
And it’s entirely possible that a more stable, less criminal, but just as extreme right-wing politician like DeSantis could be even more dangerous than a past-his-prime Trump. DeSantis’ culture war battles take no prisoners, including the LGBTQ community, reproductive rights, and even Disney.
President Biden must quickly decide whether his desire to cement his legacy outweighs the risk of losing the White House to a Republican like DeSantis.
The question is whether he wants to be a bridge out of our dark days, or a cautionary tale in humility.
