âThe GOP is going to overturn Roe v. Wade, and thatâs only the beginning.â
When I pitched a column with that headline last week to my editor, I didnât anticipate weâd read an unprecedented leaked draft of a Supreme Court opinion that would explicitly overrule a womanâs right to abortionâsomething thatâs been âsettled precedentâ for half a century.
Well, here we are now, thanks to a fully radicalized right-wing movement engaged in a zero-sum absolutist game to attain minority rule for white Christian men by any means necessary.
Next month, the Supreme Court will finally rule in Dobbs v. Jackson Womenâs Health Organization, regarding a Mississippi law that bans abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. A similar law was recently passed in Florida which was in part inspired by the Texas heartbeat bill that has spawned draconian copycat bills across the nation.
If the court upholds the law, and overturns Roe and Planned Parenthood vs. Casey, which affirmed that the state is prohibited from banning most abortions, the ruling will allow its right-wing majority to zero in on marriage equality and the use of contraceptives, which will be next on the chopping block.
By overturning Roe and Casey, America will join only three other backsliding democratic countries in the past 30 years to restrict a womanâs right to abortion. Meanwhile, 59 countries have expanded access.
The opinion of four men and Justice Amy Coney Barrett will lead to a likely prohibition on abortion in 26 states. In Texas, for example, a doctor could go to prison for life if they perform an abortion on a woman who was raped by a family member.
In the leaked draft opinion, Justice Alito justifies his ruling by claiming abortion isnât an unenumerated right, and âthe Constitution makes no reference to abortion and no such right is implicitly protected by any constitutional provision.â Well, same-sex marriage and the right to contraception are also unenumerated rights. The draft opinion assures us that overturning Roe would have no such impact on these other rights. However, by the right-wing majorityâs very own logic used to dismantle Roe, these unenumerated rights donât have any protection. But, hey, moderate Republican Sen. Susan Collins trusts these justices, so we should too!
Unlike many of my colleagues in the media industry, I take Republicans at their word. Like helpful James Bond villains, theyâve been telling us the plot all along, but many refuse to take them literally and seriously. During the confirmation hearing of Justice-designate Ketanji Brown Jackson, Republican senators gave us a sneak preview of their ambitious goals to strip away our hard-earned rights.
Sen. John Cornyn attempted to make the case that Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized gay marriage, was faulty and an âedictâ of the Supreme Court. He has an ally in Justice Alito. In a controversial 2020 speech at the Federalist Society, Alito whined that straight, religious families are apparently the real victims of marriage equality because people like Alito can no longer say, âthat marriage is a union between one man and one woman. Until very recently, thatâs what the vast majority of Americans thought. Now itâs considered bigotry.â
Meanwhile, Sen. Marsha Blackburn openly said she opposed Griswold v. Connecticut, a landmark 1965 decision that granted the right to privacy and paved the way for Roe. Specifically, it allowed married couples the right to buy and use contraceptives without government restrictions. Sen. Blackburn, of course, believes the decision was âconstitutionally unsound.â She is joined by Sen. Mike Braun, who went a step further and said he would even be open to overturning Loving v. Virginiaâwhich legalized interracial marriages nationwide.
Braun, instead, wants to let the states decide the issue (because that has worked out so wonderfully in the past for Black people trying to live their lives without fear of violence, harassment, inequality, and discrimination).
I wonder how Justice Clarence Thomas, who is married to Ginni Thomas, a white woman, would vote if such a challenge to Loving were brought before him? Maybe heâd take one for the team.
If all of this seems outlandish, well, so was the idea of Roe being overturned. Currently, we have Republicans banning books across the country, and passing laws designed to intimidate educators for teaching about diversity and âdivisiveâ topics.
A grand undoing of civil rights by the right wing is now an all-too-possible reality, and we have to be prepared.
Melissa Murray, a legal scholar and professor of law at NYU, agrees with me that Republicans will most likely focus on gay marriage and contraception after theyâre done hollowing out Roe. âCourts are the weapon of the minority,â Murray told me last week, before Justice Alitoâs majority opinion was leaked. âRepublicans are trying to do in court what they canât do in majoritarian politics.â
Professor Murray said the dismantling of marriage equality could be a long-term projectâby emphasizing First Amendment rights and religious freedoms to create religious accommodations and objections to same-sex marriage.
For example, the conservative majority in 2018 ruled in favor of a Colorado baker who refused to bake a wedding cake for a same-sex couple on the basis of a religious objection. Cases like this will allow the religious right to use the Supreme Court to chisel away at gay rights. âOnce you narrow the space for same-sex couples to exercise their rights, once you normalize that they canât expect equal treatment, then youâre on the road to normalizing different treatment,â Murray said, adding that it only takes about 10 to 20 years to entrench and mainstream such ideas.
Carlton Larson, a constitutional law professor from UC Davis King Hall School of Law, believes itâs possible that the Supreme Court could reverse Obergefell.
âThis Supreme Court is being far more aggressive on a number of issues than I had expected. Two years ago I felt quite confident that Obergefell would not be reversed. Now itâs at least possible,â Larson said, adding that thereâs some reason for hope. âOn balance, I still think rather unlikely, given the huge number of marriages that have been entered into in reliance on Obergefell, and the lack of any obvious harm to society as a result.â
Still, Larson stresses that Obergefell was decided primarily as a substantive due process opinion, which allows courts to protect certain unenumerated fundamental rights from government interference.
If the conservative majority of the court is determined to undo the entire line of substantive due process cases as illegitimate, then it might not only be Obergefell, but also Griswold and Eisenstadt v. Baird (which gave unmarried people the right to possess contraception), up for reversal.
âI think reversing every single substantive due process case is a step too far even for this court, although there are probably a few justices who would be attracted by it,â Larson added, citing Pierce v. Society of Sistersâwhich allowed parents the right to send their kids to private schoolsâa decision of which conservatives were (and are) in favor.
Unfortunately, thereâs no need for Republicans to be logically or morally consistent to achieve their end game.
For example, Professor Murray says that executive privilege is not an enumerated right in the Constitution, but Republicans are fine with Trump exercising the privilege to escape accountability. Thereâs no mention of qualified immunity in the Constitution, but Republicans grant police officers all the qualified immunity they want to escape accountability for their abusesâoften at the expense of Black communities.
Republicans are for national security, until theyâre fine openly supporting a violent insurrection and a coup. Republicans are pro-free market and pro-corporate speech, unless a corporation like Disney pushes back against Floridaâs âDonât Say Gayâ bill, and then theyâre perfectly fine using the governmentâs power to punish them. Republicans are the alleged defenders of free speech, unless, of course, that speech threatens them, then theyâre fine banning books.
Republicans complain about liberal judicial activism, until they obtain power and use the court to invalidate the will of the majority.
When I talked to Professor Murray last week about the possibility of the majority losing all of these hard-earned rights, she was shocked that people werenât taking the threat seriously. âNo one is doing anything,â she lamented. âWe are asleep at the wheel.â
It seems the leaked opinion finally got peopleâs attention. Crowds started gathering last night outside the Supreme Court demanding protection for womenâs rights and upholding Roe v. Wade. Democratic Senators are openly calling to codify Roe into law by eliminating the filibuster. With almost 70 percent of the population against overturning Roe, Democrats have a galvanizing issue to mobilize their voters and even some independents.
Sometimes it has to get worse for things to get better. At the very least, it forces people to wake up.