So much for the pollsters. It’s too early to say for sure, but the red wave is starting to look more like a red trickle. While we still need to wait a bit to determine the balance of power in Congress—with quite a few crucial races way too close to call—a related narrative is developing.
It has, thus far, been a pretty good election night for normal Republicans, when compared to the more extreme MAGA Trumpy Republicans.
To be sure, there aren’t a lot of normal Republicans anymore. Most have retired or been primaried out of their jobs. But Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu are about as good as it gets among GOP elected officials, and both coasted to victories on Tuesday night.
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Although Trump-backed J.D. Vance won his Senate race in ruby red Ohio, normie Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine outperformed him by nearly 10 points.
In contrast, Herschel Walker’s U.S. Senate race in Georgia is too close to call, and Don Bolduc’s Senate campaign out of New Hampshire was a total bust.
Despite lots of optimism and buzz, Lee Zeldin’s race for governor of New York flamed out. In Congress, Zeldin was a staunch Trump defender who voted to overturn the 2020 election and called Trump’s impeachment a “charade” and a “clown show.”
Likewise, J.R. Majewski’s campaign for an Ohio House seat landed flat on its face. In case you’ve forgotten, Majewski is the man in this “Let’s Go Brandon” rap video. He got Trump’s endorsement by carving the name “TRUMP” into his farmland. And to top it off, Majewski was at the Capitol on Jan. 6. He also reportedly misrepresented his military service.
As I noted in a column back in September, my wife consulted for the normal Republican that Majewski defeated in the primary, state Sen. Theresa Gavarone. Gavarone boasted an impressive list of endorsements—including the Ohio Right to Life and the Susan B. Anthony Foundation. This was a race Republicans should have won. Trump has likely cost Republicans numerous seats, but this one seems like a textbook example.
And when Trump isn’t directly at fault, Trumpism is.
In my home state of Maryland, Republican primary voters (with some help from mischievous Democrats) rejected the moderate two-term Republican Gov. Larry Hogan’s chosen heir apparent, to vote in favor of Trump-backed Dan Cox, a man Hogan describes as a “QAnon whack job.” On Tuesday night, Cox was trounced by Democrat Wes Moore, who garnered close to 60 percent of the vote.
But that race’s outcome wasn’t a surprise. The biggest shock—should trends continue—coming out of the 2022 midterms could be the defeat of MAGA Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado. As I write this, she trails Democrat Adam Frisch by more than 3 percentage points—with 73 percent of the polls reporting.
Aside from her Trumpy rhetoric and politics, Boebert has had an interesting personal life, including brushes with the law. While Boebert’s seat was assumed to be safe (in a year when Republicans were expected to dominate), Colorado has two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor, and Boebert’s district includes the liberal enclave of Aspen. Presumably it’s a bad general election strategy to alienate normal Republicans while simultaneously outraging Democrats.
Remember back in August when Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warned about “candidate quality”? He had a point. And it spurred me to write a column titled, “Donald Trump’s Legacy is Convincing Idiots That They Should Run for Office.”
I wasn’t just talking about the 2022 cycle. For years now, Trump’s arrival on the political scene has inspired the rise of candidates like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorn, and Lauren Boebert. Cawthorn was defeated in a North Carolina Republican primary earlier this year, leaving Congress after just one term. If Boebert goes down, it will be yet another sign that gravity still exists. It’ll also be another cautionary tale.
Heading into Tuesday’s elections, my operating assumption was that a red wave would cover a multitude of sins. In other words, the political environment so favored Republicans that their victories would overshadow the missed opportunities and money left on the table that resulted from nominating so many extreme candidates. And maybe that will still be the case.
However, even if Republicans manage to take both houses of Congress, which still looks more likely than not, the consensus view will likely be that Republicans under-performed. And if that pans out, Trump might be in store for some blame. This would especially be true if, for example, Herschel Walker and Dr. Oz end up losing their respective races for the U.S. Senate—or if Kari Lake loses her gubernatorial race in Arizona. (All those races are too close to call at the time of this writing.)
I’m not naive enough to think anything could break Trump’s spell over the GOP. Heck, he almost singlehandedly sabotaged Republican control over the U.S. Senate in 2020—and that was after losing the presidency. Of course, that also came on the heels of a disastrous 2018 midterm election for Republicans. Trump’s magic seems to be limited to defeating the historically unpopular Hillary Clinton in 2016. Why would Republicans start to care if Trump costs them seats, now?
Still, consider that Trump has been hinting that he wants to announce a third run for the presidency next week. And then look at the fact that he didn’t invite Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to his Florida rally earlier this week. And then look at how he mocked DeSantis’ name—infuriating a lot of conservatives. And then observe that DeSantis garnered nearly 60 percent of the vote in Florida (dramatically overperforming Trump’s 2020 performance in the state), and you get a sense that, so far, this hasn’t been such a great night for Trump.
It was a good night for the normies. It’s just too bad there weren’t more of them.
