The two major political parties both claim they want to get more Latino votes. They need to change their mindset and think about what they have to do to earn more Latino votes.
Too many politicos are eager to collect their share of the bounty, but they’re not willing to put in the work.
Granted, it’s not exactly breaking news that a political party would say it wants more votes. Politics works best when it’s about addition, not subtraction. That starts with giving Latino voters, who too often have been treated like the Rodney Dangerfields of the American electorate, a little respect.
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Yet, it’s also true that, in politics, timing is everything. And 2022 is shaping up to be a pretty significant year in terms of the Latino vote. With just seven months to go until the midterm elections, there are a few things happening at once that could set the stage for a political earthquake in November.
Here’s one thing: Former President Donald Trump often insulted Latinos, yet he still put in a decent showing in the 2020 presidential election by winning 33 percent of the Latino vote. That inspired other Republicans to think they too have a shot with Latinos.
Note: In most cases, they have no shot. Trump’s appeal among Latinos is unique and not transferable. If he runs for president again in 2024, we can expect him to get as much as 38 percent of the Latino vote. But if Trump sits it out, no other Republican is likely to get anywhere near that figure.
Here’s another thing: President Joe Biden’s support among Latinos is a mile wide but an inch thick. Biden got 61 percent of the Latino vote in 2020, in large part because he wasn’t named “Trump.” But the Biden campaign didn’t even discover Latino voters until shortly before the election, and it forgot all about them once the election was over. Biden broke his promise to fight for immigration reform, and instead copied several of Trump’s more restrictive policies.
A recent poll by NBC News found that Biden’s approval rating among Latinos is now just 39 percent, down from 48 percent in January.
If there is a seismic shift coming in November, the headline is going to read:
“Republicans make historic inroads with Latino voters.”
I really hope that doesn’t happen. But I’m all about working for what you get: Latino support should be merited because you put in the effort, not inherited because your opponents are idiots.
The earthquake isn’t a sure thing. There are still two big unknowns that could scramble the board. One is Republicans, who have a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And the other is Democrats, whose outreach toward Latinos is often limited to charging Republicans with racism.
The fact is that neither Democrats nor Republicans know how to close the deal with a demographic that is more complicated than most people realize. There’s a pretty big incentive for them to learn: sheer numbers.
Latinos account for more than 18 percent of the U.S. population, and the tribe is disproportionally young. According to demographers, nearly half (47 percent) of U.S.-born Latinos are younger than 18. Every 30 seconds, a U.S.-born Latino in the United States turns 18, and reaches voting age. That pencils out to 68,000 newly eligible voters every month, or 816,000 newly eligible voters every year.
This is not just unrealized potential. More and more Latinos are going to the ballot box. According to a study last year by the City University of New York, Latinos registered and voted in record numbers in the 2020 presidential election. In all, about 18.7 million Latinos voted — about 53.7 percent of all eligible voters. It marked the first time that the voter participation rate for Latinos surpassed 50 percent. According to the study, one in 10 voters in the 2020 election was Latino.
So, in the 2022 midterms, the potential payoff of Latino votes is huge for either Republicans or Democrats. We’re almost certain to help decide some of the closest congressional races, perhaps in ways that some political observers find surprising.
Last December, a Wall Street Journal poll found that the exact same share of Latino voters—37 percent—would support a Democrat for Congress in 2022 as would support a Republican. Meanwhile, a significant chunk of the Latino electorate—22 percent—is undecided and up for grabs.
All this is the warmup to the 2024 presidential election. Latinos are likely to have a loud say in picking the next president because they’re well represented in battleground states including Nevada, Texas, Colorado, Florida, and Arizona.
Two of those states, Texas and Arizona, represent ground zero for Latinos defecting to the Republican Party.
That tells us the inroads that the GOP is making with Latinos are occurring with Mexicans and Mexican Americans. This is a subset of Latinos that is inherently conservative, highly assimilated, and often marinating in the same right-wing juices as the mainstream in those red states. They even have mixed feelings about immigration, agreeing that there is a crisis on the U.S.-Mexico border but not being so eager to buy the argument that more enforcement will fix the problem.
Clearly, both political parties need to do right by Latino voters. In both cases, it comes down to giving Latinos the one thing they need most from the political process: respect. For Latinos, respeto is everything.
Democrats need to communicate with Latinos, asking them what they need and how the Democratic Party can help provide it, putting an end to the decades-long practice of taking their support for granted, restarting outreach efforts, investing in their communities and focusing on the bread-and-butter issues that most Latinos care about beyond immigration—gas prices, inflation, the economy, health care, improving the public schools etc.
For their part, Republicans need to immediately put an end to efforts to scare up the votes of white folks by demonizing Latinos, hyperbolically warning of fake “invasions” on the U.S.-Mexico border and using demagoguery to “otherize” a population that has fought for this country in every war dating back to 1776. If Republicans feel they have a persuasive case to make—the sort that will convince Latinos to flock to their party—they should make it.
At the moment, neither political party deserves the support of Latino voters. That could change, but only if Republican and Democratic leaders care enough to go to the trouble of changing it. Simply blasting the other side won’t cut it.
The first step toward proving you’re worthy of Latinos’ support is asking for it.
