Did springtime come early?
In recent days, there have been signs that the Republican Party’s support for Donald Trump—frozen rock-solid in time since 2016—may be thawing.
Mike Pence, the former vice president, said “Trump is wrong” for suggesting that he (Pence) could have unilaterally overturned the 2020 election. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called Jan. 6 a “violent insurrection.” Both men lived to tell the tale.
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What is more, polling suggests that Pence isn’t just on the right side of history, he’s on the correct side of the GOP. This glimmer of hope suggests Trump’s cult-like hold on the Republican electorate may be eroding, as voters (who still like Pence) indicate that they want to move forward (not backward).
However, this silver lining has more than a touch of gray. To truly read today’s GOP, you must balance positive developments with competing evidence. For example: Don’t tell the “Gazpacho” police, but the most important endorsement in today’s Republican Party—second only to Donald Trump—is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
That is the claim that was made by four top Republican strategists who spoke to The Daily Beast last week. “If you can’t get Donald Trump, you are going to want to have MTG in your back pocket,” an influential veteran GOP operative told Daily Beast reporters Asawin Suebsaeng and Sam Brodey. Not surprisingly, Greene’s spokesperson Nick Dyer concurred, saying the congresswoman has “become one of the most popular Republicans nationwide.”
Not too shabby for someone who has been kicked off of Twitter and her congressional committees. But for those who are hoping the GOP will come to its senses, it’s even more concerning when you put it in context.
While Greene, the QAnon queen, is the hot ticket if you want to win a GOP primary, Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are persona non grata in the party, having been censured by the RNC for serving on the Jan. 6 Committee.
That’s right. When given a choice between decent conservatives (who are brave enough to put their political careers on the line) and a woman who floated the conspiracy theory that a California wildfire was the result of Jewish space lasers, the Republican faithful are shouting, “Give us Barabbas!”
But you don’t have to take the word of veteran GOP operatives, or even yours truly. Just look at who the really desperate Republican primary candidates are turning to.
Last week, Politico reported on a 98-page PowerPoint presentation produced last month by veteran pollster Tony Fabrizio that said J.D. Vance, the famed Hillbilly Elegy author turned Trumpy candidate for U.S. Senate in Ohio, has suffered a “precipitous decline” in support and “needs a course correction ASAP.” According to Fabrizio, Vance’s negative numbers are driven by “the perception that he is anti-Trump.”
So where did Vance immediately turn to in his hour of need? You guessed it.
“I am so honored to have Marjorie’s support,” Vance told The Hill. “I’ve gotten to know her over the last year, and she’s precisely the type of leader we need in our party: genuine, honest, and courageous. Unfortunately, there are too few like her, and so long as that’s the case, Republicans may win an election from time to time, but we’ll never do the difficult work of truly taking our country back from the leftwing mob and the woke corporations.”
This development is both sad and telling.
As The Bulwark’s Mona Charen wrote last year, “Vance is an extremely bright and insightful man who could have been a fresh voice for a fundamentally conservative view of the world.” This is a guy from a tough background who joined the Marines, went to Yale Law School, became a business success in Silicon Valley, and authored a best-selling memoir. And here he is, lavishing Marjorie Taylor Greene with praise and acting desperate for her support.
And he’s not alone. According to Daily Beast reporters Suebsaeng and Brodey, “at least seven GOP candidates have landed that coveted nod from the freshman Georgia congresswoman, from the loudly pro-Trump Rep. Mo Brooks, running for U.S. Senate in Alabama, to the conservative personality Robby Starbuck, running for U.S. House in Tennessee.”
It has been observed that Republican politicians aren’t really afraid of Trump; they are afraid of his supporters. When you consider that these same supporters incentivize politicians to seek out Greene’s endorsement, this assessment sadly rings true. Even if Trump disappeared from the political scene tomorrow, the larger problem to contend with is the grassroots base he inherited and helped attract.
In the past, Greene has been criticized by popular conservatives, including Ben Shapiro, Erick Erickson, and Rep. Dan Crenshaw, with Shapiro calling her comparison of COVID safety measures to the Holocaust “nutso” and “demented nonsense.” This criticism hasn’t stopped her meteoric rise. Suebsaeng and Brodey also note that Greene has raised over $7 million since joining Congress last January, “making her one of the most prolific fundraisers in the entire House.” This is now a movement where the inmates run the asylum.
It’s tempting to dismiss Greene as a fringe character who is a mere mainstream obsession. But all evidence, including her status as the most sought-after Republican endorser (next to Trump), says otherwise.
She’s the heart and soul of the base now. It’s a sad state of affairs.
