If the polls are to be believed, Joe Biden is about to be elected president. And if history is any indicator, Democrats will assume they have a mandate. Parties and movements that win power almost always assume the public endorses what they think have been selling. They usually don’t. Bill Clinton in 1993 and 1994 might be the poster child for this phenomenon, but it’s a predictable pitfall of a winning campaign.
The worst disasters occur when people get elected (or re-elected) and try to implement policies that weren’t even litigated during the election, much less decided. That’s probably too strong. I’m sure “fixing Social Security” was in all George W. Bush’s stump speeches, it’s just that I don’t think it was on anyone’s mind in November of 2004 (unless, maybe, they worked at the Heritage Foundation).
This is where Democrats may find themselves. If Joe Biden gets elected, it would be wrong to conclude anything other than the fact that Americans were fed up with Donald Trump. Indeed, Not Being Donald Trump is Biden’s entire raison d’être. But as a friend of mine recently put it, not being Trump is a campaign promise Biden keeps on day one. Then what?
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That’s not to say that Biden being Biden isn’t something. Just swapping Biden for Hillary Clinton alone could be enough to put Democrats over the top. Democrats deserve some credit for nominating the most pragmatic centrist candidate who had a chance to win the nomination.
But let me ask a very important and fundamental question: After losing in 2016, do you think they really took the time to do some deep introspection about why they lost? There were plenty of media profiles of working-class white Obama-Trump voters, but, aside from nominating Biden—admittedly, a big deal—did the Democratic Party do anything to actually bring these struggling voters back into the fold?
I mean, it’s possible that Trump’s performance did that… for Nov. 3. But what I’m asking is if the Democrats changed anything substantively that would make the guy who is upset about his Pennsylvania town being hollowed out remain a reliable Democrat? Stylistically, Biden appeals to Joe Sixpack. But will the Democratic Party’s policies help him? Will any of the non-Biden elites in the Democratic Party appeal to him? There is no hope or salvation for these folks in a Biden administration.
Throughout the 2020 primary cycle, Biden largely resisted the urge to pander to the progressive left, which is why a lot of my friends think Biden can do the same as president.
I’m not so optimistic. And it’s not just because Biden is old. It’s because all presidents, by necessity, outsource decisions to staff, bureaucrats, nominees, etc. Most of these folks will be politically to the left of Biden. And while it’s true that a lot of the Democrats who might win Senate seats next week are fairly moderate, the energy and enthusiasm in the Democratic Party is on the left. Maybe the center will hold, but I wouldn't bet against the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezes of the Democratic Party.
And this raises an important question: Can Joe Biden corral a coalition that includes members of the Democratic Socialists of America, a group that just tweeted “solidarity with Jeremy Corbyn,” a politician suspended by Britain’s Labour Party for failing to tackle anti-Semitism while party leader? Because that’s what he’s going to be dealing with.
Although Biden didn’t pander to “woke” Twitter, he also never had a Sister Souljah moment. He never really confronted the left (unless, again, you count winning the primary against Bernie Sanders, which is not the same as winning the argument).
This phenomenon can also be observed in the way he handled the rioting. When pushed, Biden, to his credit, condemned the street violence, but this was generally more reactive than proactive. During the first presidential debate, Biden was asked if he had ever called the Democratic mayor of Portland or the Democratic Governor of Oregon and asked them to call in the National Guard.
“I don’t hold public office now,” Biden replied—a stark departure from his “I am the Democratic Party right now” line. Maybe he will make the call next week, when he really is the Democratic Party? Stay tuned. This is an issue that remains relevant. Just the other day, 30 officers were injured in Philadelphia.
But this is just one area where I wonder if Biden can push back against the left. There are other issues like speech codes and cancel culture, not to mention court-packing and ending the legislative filibuster, that I have written about repeatedly in this space.
Lately, his play has been to run out the clock. This may prove to be a smart strategy for a nation that is suffering from Trump fatigue. But it also means that we are voting against something, not for something. And the problem is the total unsustainability of governing for four years based almost solely on a campaign platform of Not Being Donald Trump.
We are ending a campaign where the likely next president isn’t saying much of anything—which is a good way to avoid offending either this progressive base or the voters he needs to swing. Maybe this will be the one time a prevent defense that doesn’t backfire. It might be enough to win the election, but let’s not pretend there’s a broad mandate.
This silence is speaking volumes about everything the Democratic Party hasn’t resolved.
