Welcome to October Surprise, the Daily Beast’s daily countdown to the biggest election of our lifetime. It’s only 34 days until Election Day and here’s what’s happening in the race to the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Subscribe here to receive this first in your inbox.
THE DOWNLOAD
Things aren’t looking too good for notorious Republican Party hardliner-in-a-hardline-state Ted Cruz’s re-election hopes.
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The Cook Political Report has just updated its assessment of the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” amid what appear to be significant signs of momentum behind Democrat Colin Allred’s campaign.
It’s clear the pressure might already be getting to Cruz, who put in a Tuesday appearance on Newsmax warning that “Chuck Schumer and George Soros are flooding cash into the state of Texas” and begging his supporters to “contribute” to his campaign “because we are getting swamped.”
JD Vance returned to slamming Tim Walz on the campaign trail less than 24 hours after an unusually cordial debate between the vice presidential candidates.
“I talked to the president afterwards,” Vance said at a rally in Auburn Hills, Michigan, Wednesday. “He said that Tim Walz said he was friends with school shooters twice.”
Vance had missed the flub entirely.
“I actually didn’t notice that Tim Walz had said that on the debate stage,” Vance said. “And I said, ‘Did he really say that, sir?’ And he said, ‘I'm telling you, man, go and watch the clips. He said he was friends with school shooters twice.’”
POLLS OBSESSED
Can you say dead heat—again? A bipartisan poll conducted jointly by the Cook Political Report and Swing State Project shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a single percentage point in the seven battleground states combined, 49 to 48 percent. Harris leads Trump by 1 to 3 points in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They’re tied in North Carolina. And Trump leads by 2 points in Georgia.
But in a new Emerson College Polling/RealClearWorld survey, Trump is ahead in Arizona by 3 percentage points. So, really, it’s anyone’s guess.
ON THE MOVE
Fresh off their one and only vice presidential debate Tuesday night, JD Vance and Tim Walz began barnstorming the Midwest. Vance took the gloves off in Michigan, ribbing Walz for his little-noticed “friend of school shooters” debate flub, which even Vance said he missed. Walz, who is also planning a more aggressive strategy, went to Pennsylvania. Vice President Harris was in Georgia to survey hurricane damage (while Joe Biden visited the Carolinas). Donald Trump had nothing public scheduled for Wednesday.
WAYBACK WEDNESDAY
Trump surrogate and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was confronted over his own marital infidelities while attacking Bill Clinton for the same thing. On Meet the Press, host Chuck Todd asked Giuliani what he meant when he said Hillary Clinton is “too stupid to be president” if she was unaware that Bill Clinton was cheating on her.” Are you the right person to attack the Clintons, he asked Giuliani, then married to his third wife, because of his own history of infidelity? “I’m a Roman Catholic and I confess those things to my priest,” Giuliani replied.
BEAST OF THE DAY
Olivia Nuzzi has escalated her claims against ex-fiancé Ryan Lizza, filing a complaint with the FBI accusing him of hacking her devices, threatening her with violence, and sabotaging her career as her relationship with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. went public.
Nuzzi first unveiled her claims against Politico’s Lizza on Tuesday in a filing in Washington, D.C.’s Superior Court. She accused Lizza of threatening to publicize “personal information about me to destroy my life, career, and reputation—a threat he has since carried out,” according to CNN.
The FBI declined to comment, saying it doesn’t comment on public complaints, though it typically limits its investigations to federal crimes—including hacking. “I will not comment on an active criminal investigation,” Nuzzi said in a statement to the Daily Beast Wednesday.
SHAMELESS PLUG
Joanna Coles and Samantha Bee have plenty to talk about on The Daily Beast Podcast whose second episode drops at midnight—and they’re talking about it with Pod Save America’s Jon Favreau and Jon Lovett who have plenty of hot takes about the next 34 days. Find it on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and all major podcast players.
