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While everyone was busy watching the Trump arraignment on Tuesday, a less closely watched event took place that could spell even bigger trouble for Republicans going forward.
I’m talking about the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, where progressive Janet Protasiewicz easily defeated conservative Dan Kelly by 11 points. Abortion was the main topic, as the court is expected to rule on whether to revert to the state’s 1849 abortion ban (the election swings the court’s makeup from a 4-3 conservative majority to a 4-3 liberal majority). It might also lead to the redrawing of Republican-drawn congressional redistricting maps in the state.
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As The New York Times’ Nate Cohn observed, the election results reinforce a lesson from the 2022 midterms: “...liberals excel when abortion and democracy are on the ballot.”
When abortion was on the ballot in 2022 (as was the case in Kentucky and Michigan), abortion rights activists clearly had the whip hand. And the trend is even broader than the November midterms. Last August, Kansas voters overwhelmingly rejected a constitutional amendment saying there was no right to abortion in the state.
If Republicans were really sick of losing, they’d be paying attention to the results in Wisconsin—and taking them seriously. That doesn’t mean they’d flip-flop on first principles or core beliefs regarding abortion. But it does mean they’d be busy working on a strategy. Then again, if 2020 and 2022 wasn’t enough to force a course correction on Trump, it’s hard to imagine an election in Wisconsin will make them reevaluate their abortion strategy.
“Republicans need to figure out the abortion issue ASAP. We are getting killed by indie voters who think we support full bans with no exceptions,” says Jon Schweppe, the director of policy and government affairs at American Principles Project and a Lincoln Fellow at the right-leaning Claremont Institute. “We just lost Wisconsin by like 15… It’s not going to get better until we figure this out. We will lose 2024 over it too — and that would probably be the end.”
To be sure, a backlash against the overturning of Roe v. Wade was utterly predictable. But part of the story is that Republicans have largely abandoned the field when it comes to persuading and communicating a compassionate and consistent pro-life message.
That was at least part of the story in Wisconsin, where, according to The Times, Kelly “never mentioned abortion in his television advertising and, during his final rally on Monday night in Waukesha, a parade of Republican officials spoke for more than an hour without mentioning abortion.”
Kelly might have a noble reason for believing it’s inappropriate for a Supreme Court justice to advocate for a political issue, but his silence was tantamount to unilateral disarmament. I mean, it’s not like someone else was effectively carrying the pro-life banner.
Consider, for a moment, the national environment—including the Trump indictment and arraignment—in which the Wisconsin election took place. Americans are experiencing this perceived loss of abortion rights in the context of a Republican Party where the presumptive standard bearer is Donald Trump, a man who allegedly paid off a porn star and endorsed Herschel Walker (who allegedly paid for abortions) for the U.S. Senate.
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Trump is obviously badly cast and ill-equipped to marshal a rhetorical argument for the dignity of human life.
Fine, you might say. Can’t someone else make the case for life?
Unfortunately, the perverse incentives in the Republican Party lean more toward rallying the base and “owning the libs” than toward compassionate persuasion.
For example, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is reportedly ready to sign a six-week ban (with exceptions for rape and incest) on abortion. On a wide rage of issues (from Disney to COVID mandates) DeSantis’ brand seems to be imposing his will on people, which is why if DeSantis becomes the party’s leader, discussions about preserving a culture of life will likely be overshadowed by outrage over a man imposing his will on women.
By the way, it’s not like Florida has some wildly liberal abortion law. Florida currently has a 15-week ban—the same restriction as the Mississippi law that resulted in overturning Roe v. Wade, and the timetable that some conservatives were hoping to use in a nationwide ban.
Giving credit where credit is due, pro-lifers expanded the Overton window to the point where a 15-week ban is now considered moderate and mainstream. This is a major accomplishment. But instead of taking advantage of this sea change, the temptation is to push for steeper restrictions.
Abortion will always be a hot-button issue that evokes strong feelings on both sides of the aisle, and it’s understandable why people who view abortion as murder wouldn’t be content to settle for a politically safe compromise position.
But from a political standpoint, it sure feels like Republicans are getting out over their skis and ignoring the lessons of 2022 and (now) 2023.
Going back to Nate Cohn’s observation, “...liberals excel when abortion and democracy are on the ballot.” So the obvious lesson for Dems going forward is: Make sure abortion and democracy are on the ballot.
What this suggests to me is that Democrats already have their game plan for 2024 in place. If Donald Trump is the nominee, progressives will flock to the polls to defeat him and preserve democracy.
And if DeSantis is the nominee, then the election will center on abortion and Joe Biden’s campaign ads (targeted, of course, to suburban women) would write themselves.
That’s not to say the Democratic strategy will work, yet again. Times change. But in 2024, Democrats will have no dearth of ammunition. Republicans will make sure of that. They still aren’t sick of losing, yet.
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