Welcome to Trail Mix, your 2024 election sanity guide. See something interesting on the trail? Email me at jake.lahut@thedailybeast.com. To get Trail Mix in your inbox, subscribe here for free.
This week, we examine one of the biggest MAGA rebounds to date and its implications for the Trump veepstakes. Plus, we go inside the strange relationship between North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, and unearth another odd tale from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
FROM ‘LITTLE MARCO’ TO VP CONTENDER
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At Donald Trump’s donor retreat in Palm Beach last weekend, an unlikely vice presidential contender was busy setting himself apart from the pack.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) was working the room, according to a donor and attendee, pressing the flesh and quietly setting the stage for a major promotion.
“He was very aggressive,” the donor said, requesting anonymity to relay details from the private event. “He was out there, working the room. He had his family with him, which was a staple of his failed 2016 campaign. But people were positive about Marco, there was buzz, and he did pretty well.”
Gone are the days of “Little Marco,” as Trump used to call him—most infamously in an exchange about the two men’s relative penis sizes. Eight years later, part of Rubio’s appeal on the ticket would be his perceived distance from Trumpworld.
“He checks quite a few boxes. I think it goes far beyond just the Latino vote,” Brad Coker, a veteran Florida pollster, told The Daily Beast. “What would set him apart from J.D. Vance and some of the others is that he’s not seen as some sort of Trump acolyte.”
A former Rubio adviser said the buzz around their former boss is no surprise.
“He’s extremely well-vetted, both by the Romney team in 2012 where they found nothing and then by the national press corps in 2016,” the Rubio alumnus said. “He’s never gonna embarrass the nominee. He doesn’t make gaffes, he’s a super-good communicator.
Trumpworld sources who spoke to The Daily Beast said Rubio has finagled his way into the top tier of the former president’s potential running mates, joining the likes of Vance, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)—though a Trumpworld source cautioned against any rankings “because it’s all filtered through people who have a reason to pump up someone’s status.”
Yet there’s also potentially trouble on the horizon for Rubio.
His 2023 book focused on domestic economic policy, several Republicans familiar with the discussions among donors said, could be a major liability.
“I’ve heard the donors who are advising Trump on fiscal policy, the big-time people in consideration for Cabinet positions, they told people they have grave concerns about Rubio and they call him a lightweight on domestic policy,” the Trump donor said of the book, Decades of Decadence: How Our Spoiled Elites Blew America’s Inheritance of Liberty, Security, and Prosperity.
There’s also a constitutional issue for Rubio, with the 12th Amendment prohibiting electors from voting for a president and vice president from the same state.
Still, Trumpworld is taking Rubio seriously—even if they think his own people are the ones leaking tidbits about his meteoric rise in the MAGA veepstakes.
“He’s pushing hard, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise,” the donor retreat attendee said. “This didn’t come out of nowhere. But hey, it’s all good.”
“Marco is definitely in the game on the VP thing,” the other Trumpworld source said.
Rubio’s emergence as a VP contender is not only a sign of his own political transformation. It also illustrates the significant lengths the Trump campaign might be willing to reach in an effort to seize whatever tiny margins it’ll take to beat President Joe Biden in November. For both logistical and ideological reasons, there are plenty of justifications for not picking Rubio. However, he brings some unique strengths compared to the rest of the field.
If Rubio can peel off a few points from the Latino vote in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, that alone might make his selection worth any trouble that comes with it, Coker said. He also has a reputation as a steady hand and strong foreign policy credentials from his time on the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and the Special Committee on Intelligence, where he serves as vice chair.
“He’s a known commodity, and I think he checks the box for ‘this guy could be president,’” Coker said. “He’s a serious player. People take him far more seriously than other members of the Senate.”
There’s also Rubio’s relatively spry age, 52, compared to Trump, 77, and Biden, 81, Coker said, which gives Rubio another advantage when the “vice-presidential candidates will get evaluated more closely” than a normal cycle. “And if you put Rubio up against [Kamala] Harris,” Coker added, “at least in my opinion, Rubio shines way above her in stature, in presence, in public speaking and communication. He’s just so much stronger than Harris, if it was one-on-one it wouldn’t be close.”
The foreign policy chops, potential edge with Latino voters and relative youth, combined, make for a more unique VP profile when it comes to Rubio compared to his fellow challengers.
“There’s a lot of small reasons that sort of accumulate which raise his profile… And he might be the one who brings the most to the ticket,” Coker said, “but he has the problem that both he and Trump live in Florida.”
One of either Trump or Rubio would have to move out of Florida for the ticket to work, although the Trump campaign could roll the dice on the 12th Amendment issue and simply forgo Rubio’s electoral votes as VP in Florida, leaving it to a Senate vote if he doesn’t have enough to reach 270.
Still, Rubio still has his ideological detractors who hold a grudge over his challenge to Trump in 2016. “Rubio is the inception of the Never Trump movement,” a GOP source familiar with the discussions told The Daily Beast. “If Donald Trump wants to be convicted and removed by Senate Republicans, he will select Rubio, who McConnell would be glad to appoint as the president.”
Yet the major knock on Rubio also speaks to his rock-solid credentials among Trumpworld.
Rubio mentions his child tax credit seven times in Decades of Decadence, but it might be the references to the donor class which rankled the deep pocketed corners of Trumpworld.
“Most Americans assume that a big part of running for president is meeting with big donors and trying to win their favor,” Rubio writes in the book. “Many political consultants say that ‘if you aren’t running for president five years before the election, you aren’t going to be prepared.’ There was a time when this perspective was true. From Reagan to Romney, the GOP had a tendency to nominate the next guy in line. All the next guy in line had to do was convince a relatively narrow group of people that he could do the job.
“Political scientists call this the ‘party decides’ model—a system where, intentionally or not, the election is decided by the top consultants, donors, and elected officials in the party,” the senator continues in the same passage. “Oddly enough, this began to change about seven years ago—right when I decided to run for president… After spending an inordinate amount of time running around the country to raise money for my campaign, I can say people had every reason to have this perception and be furious about it.”
The early section of the book on fundraising shows how Rubio has tried to navigate his populist rebrand.
The senator describes “attending many parties and dinners with the financial elite of this country,” which he said reminded him of the “sharp divide that exists in the United States—not between left and right, or even the rich and poor” but “the divide between a small, isolated group of largely coastal Americans—what some have labeled our nation’s ruling class—and everybody else.”
Now that it just so happens to be under five years from the 2028 presidential election, Rubio’s strategy will be put to the test.
Although he is considered well-liked in Trumpworld and may be generating the most VP buzz along with Scott, there’s still no guarantee anyone in that cohort will get the nod.
“I would not be shocked,” the Trumpworld source said, “if we woke up one day and Trump selects a VP no one has been talking about.”
— Reese Gorman contributed to this report.
TWO DAKOTA GUVS, ONE VP SLOT
Coming out of week two of South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem’s complete and total self-immolation in the Trump veepstakes, a neighboring governor’s stock continues to rise.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who famously tore his Achilles tendon in a pre-debate game of pickup basketball before dropping out of the GOP primary and endorsing Trump, has gone from barely on the radar of MAGA operatives to a consensus favorite for either the VP pick or a Cabinet position, as previously reported by The Daily Beast.
Yet little is known about the relationship—or lack thereof—between the Dakota governors.
“As far as all of the statewide officials in both North and South Dakota, she is the only one like her,” a former Noem staffer told The Daily Beast, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about their ex-boss. “If you look at the rest … they’re all very much the same type of person who just focus on their state, doing good work for the people, stuff like that. Contrasted with that is Kristi, who’s very Kristi-centric. So that’s been a main point of contention, instead of working with any of these other politicians, it’s either her show or nothing at all.”
Burgum, on the other hand, is known for his low-drama demeanor and less of a thirst for the spotlight.
Yet despite Burgum’s affable approach to fellow GOP governors, he failed to hit it off with Noem once she arrived in Pierre’s corner office back in 2019.
“There’s always some semblance of a relationship when you have a neighboring state,” a Republican strategist who knows Burgum told The Daily Beast, also speaking on the condition of anonymity. “My sense is they’re not particularly close. I harken back to when Doug first announced, she took some pot shots at him saying nobody knows who he is, and clearly some signs of insecurity from her.”
Publicly, the two have engaged in some friendly banter, but Republicans familiar with the relationship say the neighboring governors have never grown closer beyond that.
“Wouldn’t that be interesting if South and North Dakota governors were running for president?” Noem said shortly after Burgum entered the race when asked if she would join in challenging Trump.
“Doug is a great guy and it’s funny—he was texting me and asking me to support him and we were kind of going back and forth a little bit and he said, ‘Remember, we have protected you from Canada for 137 years,’” Noem continued after saying she was focused on South Dakota, referencing her decision not to run for president in 2024. “And I said that is true. You have been good protectors, but we still have a better football team,” she said. “But Doug’s working hard. He might do well down in Iowa. Iowa’s a farm state and he’s investing a ton of money into this race.”
Burgum never made it to the Iowa caucus, but that didn’t stop his steady rise in Trumpworld.
“Doug doesn’t need a job, right?” the Republican close to Burgum said. “He’s doing what he’s doing because he believes it’s the right thing to do.”
Noem, on the other hand, had her eyes set on the 2024 ticket and did not view collaborating with Burgum as a high priority, her former staffer said.
“I wouldn’t say that she talked about Doug much, to my knowledge,” they said, “but despite being two small states with good economies for their size, I would think that they would have worked together a lot more than they did.”
Representatives for Noem and Burgum did not return a request for comment.
The Noem dog incident, the former staffer added, became a case study in how the South Dakota governor rolls differently than the North Dakota one. One is highly wedded to her ideas, the other is more willing to kill his darlings.
“In her mind, any idea that she has is what they go with, and everybody else’s job around her is to execute — and a lot of politicians are like that, as well,” the former Noem staffer said. “But it’s very much a yes-man culture around her.”
RFK JR.’S LATEST BRAINWORMED IDEA
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has had no shortage of tall tales and bizarre anecdotes so far this cycle.
The New York Times report this week about him having a literal brainworm may have taken the cake, but Kennedy had another strange claim during a recent radio appearance—one that has not been so widely reported.
Kennedy said in his 2015 book, Thimerosal: Let the Science Speak, that he “had all six of my children vaccinated” because he believes “vaccines have saved the lives of hundreds of millions of humans over the past century and that broad vaccine coverage is critical to public health. But I want our vaccines to be as safe as possible.”
Yet when it came to the COVID-19 vaccines, Kennedy took a different approach, according to audio obtained by The Daily Beast.
“Listen, I have adult kids,” Kennedy said in an interview with Brian Shapiro on KSHP, a Las Vegas radio station. “I don’t know how old your kids are… believe me, your ability to influence your kids after a certain age basically approaches zero.”
Kennedy said he raised his kids “to disagree with me, to challenge me, but also to tell the truth.”
Then the story took a twist.
“I offered my kids vaccine cards and said, ‘I don’t want you to take this product,’ because I had read the clinical trial data,” Kennedy added in the interview. “And they said, no, they didn’t want to do it, because they didn’t want to lie. They didn’t want to lie to their friends. So, they made their own decision—that they wanted to go to law school, they wanted to go to school, and that they had to take this risk. And they did it.”
The Kennedy campaign did not return a request for comment on how the candidate procured those vaccine cards. Obtaining a fake vaccine card is illegal under federal law, as well as state and some local laws.
OFF THE BEATEN PATH
Resident Legal: Part II
Derrick Anderson, one of the GOP’s top house recruits running in Virginia, is still having problems over where, exactly, he’s been living for the past number of years.
The Daily Beast first reported last September that although Anderson is not legally required to live in Virginia’s 7th District, he appears to have been living outside of it in Alexandria while his campaign maintains he’s consistently lived within it in Fredericksburg. Earlier this month, the Washington D.C. Bar Association received a complaint about Anderson—an attorney and former Green Beret who served in Iraq and Afghanistan—for allegedly violating their rules of professional conduct.
At the heart of the complaint is whether Anderson falsely claimed an Arlington townhouse as his primary residence when applying for a Veterans Affairs loan or if he committed voter fraud by registering to vote in Fredericksburg when he wasn’t living there.
“The question is, did Mr. Anderson falsify financial or other information while completing his VA application for his loan, or did Mr. Anderson commit voter fraud in the Commonwealth of Virginia from 2021-2022, or is currently violating” Virginia state code, the complaint reads.
The letter was sent to Anderson’s law office in D.C., not a residential address.
The attorney who filed the complaint had until Wednesday to respond with further documentation. Anderson’s campaign did not return a request for comment.
CAMPAIGN LIT
‘Deep State’ Dave. Repeat Pennsylvania Republican Senate hopeful and Trump lackey Dave McCormick has several previously undisclosed ties to the type of intelligence and big business outfits Trump hates the most, Roger Sollenberger scoops for Pay Dirt.
The Shanny spot. A far-reaching profile by Noah Kirsch, William Bredderman, and Emily Shugerman reveals far more than was previously known about Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy’s mega-rich VP pick.
Riding the brainworm. Kennedy also gave conflicting stories around the worm he believes entered his brain and died inside of it, Kirsch reports.
Gaetz of Hell. The DOJ is stonewalling the House Ethics Committee’s investigation into whether Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) paid an underage teen for sex, Reese Gorman and Roger report in another scoop.
Like and subscribe. Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-NY) YouTube account subscribes to dozens of bewildering fringe and conspiracy-mongering pages, Bredderman reports in an exclusive.
Kevin’s cash. House Republicans are already paying the price for Kevin McCarthy’s ouster, Mini Racker reports, because of his best talent: raising money.
