We’ve taken a road trip from Pennsylvania and are now onto the second in our series exploring America’s 2024 presidential election battlegrounds. Our purpose is simple: To give you, the voters, a deep understanding of each of the seven key swing states, how they can be won this November—and who is likely to do so.
Today’s battleground is Nevada, a state whose people are divided between those complaining about water shortages and those mesmerized by the Bellagio fountains; between those who own gold mines and those who dine at the Golden Corral. (As they say, always bet on the pot roast.)
A little history to get us started: Nevada joined the union 160 years ago, right before the 1864 election. Its statehood was fast-tracked, in fact, in an effort to give Abraham Lincoln three additional electoral votes and a Republican majority in Congress. (Historians believe this is the first time the GOP tried to fix an election, although for once it was for a good guy.) Lincoln went on to win re-election and soon celebrated at Ford’s Theater—or as John Wilkes Booth called it, Target Center.
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Here, then, is a very detailed political analysis of the state to guide you before you place a wager in the presidential prediction market, which is almost as safe as entrusting your money to Sam Bankman-Fried. Because after all, who among us wouldn’t have given their life savings to a schlubby 30-year-old who wore cargo shorts to investor meetings?
First, both candidates should do well in Nevada
Kamala Harris will connect with its diverse and unionized workforce; Donald Trump, of course, will do well with that all-important sex worker demo.
Yes, prostitution is legal in Nevada, except for Clark County. You cannot get a hooker in Las Vegas. At least not legally. Still, it appears no one in the state legislature ever thought maybe someone would take a $12 Uber ride outside the county lines to go to a brothel?
Also, I love how in Las Vegas it takes 45 minutes to get a pizza delivered but escort services can promise a “date” to your room in 30 minutes. In other words, if you want a pepperoni pie fast, call an escort—and ask for extra cheese.
The way to appeal to Nevadans is to try something different
The campaigns’ TV spots may not work as well here as in other states, as they run the risk of getting lost in the estimated 300 ads a day for accident lawyers and male enhancement medication for 87 cents a pill.
So I’m putting my money on the first candidate to hire either a magician or a ventriloquist like Terry Fator. Fator—full disclosure, a friend and client—is the headliner at the Strat; imagine having one of his puppets singing a catchy tune for Harris. Something like Dusty Springfield’s “I Only Wanna Laugh.” Or Trump’s theme, Patsy Cline’s “Crazy.”
If I were to guess, I think Trump is more likely to make the move as he is pro puppet; in fact he has his very own JD Vance on a string.
Look for the candidate smart enough to campaign at non-traditional places
Forget anyone who has a rally at the Thomas and Mack Center at UNLV. The smart candidate will spend their time campaigning at what we seasoned election consultants call the Nevada Trifecta:
- The Hoover Dam, which is not only a great wonder of the modern world but retains more water than Chris Christie.
- Elko County’s famous Inez’s D and D Bar, because what better place to impress the voters with your fancy footwork than to be photographed tripping the fantastic at a whorehouse? (The D and D stands for dancing and diddling).
- And Area 51, home of RFK Jr.
So given all that, who will score the jackpot that is Nevada’s six electoral votes? Barring such an unforeseen event as, say, a ceasefire between Ben and JLo, I predict Trump wins Nevada, narrowly. Between the hookers, puppets and the fact that around the all-you-can eat buffets he is known as “the king of shrimp”—“The shrimps on my plate (yes plural) are bigger than anyone else’s”—he should bring home the Silver State.
Editor’s Note: None of Jon Macks’ analysis should be taken seriously as you enter the prediction market (or in any circumstances, really). And if you have a gambling problem, too bad. Feh!
