In the chaotic minutes following Mitch McConnellâs announcement that he would step down as Republican Senate leader, reporters approached Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) in the Capitol to ask who he wanted to replace McConnell.
Vance had a playful answer: âJohn.â
While no one knows yet who will succeed McConnell, the leading contenders all happen to have the most common name in the U.S. Senate (and the second most common name in America).
For well over a year, the so-called âThree Johnsâ have been identified as players in the quiet race to succeed McConnell unfolding in the shadows: the current No. 2 GOP senator, John Thune (R-SD); the former No. 2 GOP senator, John Cornyn (R-TX); and Senate GOP Conference Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY).
But when McConnell finally made it official Wednesday that this year will be his last as GOP leader, what followed was a burst of activity that suggested the race to succeed him could be even more tumultuous than anticipated.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who challenged McConnell for the job in 2022, issued a statement in which he didnât rule out a run.
Other conservatives spoke highly of Scott, including Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who also mentioned Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) as a possible candidate.
âListen, Iâm totally open to anybody,â Hawley told reporters. âIâm completely persuadable. I like all of these folks. Everybody whoâs floated their name. You know, I imagine thereâll be more people floating their names and so Iâve heard more new names today in the past hour.â
Even Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) is weighing a leadership bid, according to Politico, either for the top spot or perhaps one of the vacated positions if someone moves up the ranks.
Meanwhile, the Johns publicly kept their plans private Wednesday, expressing deference to McConnellâat least for one day.
âToday,â Thune told reporters Wednesday, âwe just want to reflect on his service and honor him.â
But any broad mood of reflection didnât even last one day; a source familiar with the campaigns told The Daily Beast Wednesday night that multiple senators were already making calls to whip votes.
When asked by the Texas Tribune, Cornyn simply said he has made âno secret of my intentions,â but declined to outline any specifics about a likely leadership run.
According to CNN, Barrasso said he was focusing on the âmuch more important electionââthe November general election for the White House and Congressâwhich will happen before Senate leadership elections later that month.
With potentially a handful of senators set to run for the conferenceâs top spot, Republicans seem destined for an epic power struggle through November, adding a layer of intensity onto what is already a packed 2024.
The party is seeking to recapture the majority by taking advantage of a favorable Senate map. But on Capitol Hill, GOP senators have frequently been at odds with their House counterparts in avoiding a government shutdown and navigating policy minefields like border security and Ukraine aid.
McConnellâs announcement may give him further latitude to accomplish his own goals, like funding much-needed weapons for Ukraine, but that particular policy fight could grow even more fraught as McConnellâs successors position themselves with fellow GOP senators, voters, and perhaps the most important voice of all: Donald Trump.
While McConnell has practically made a sport out of disregarding Trump, the former president still wields immense power with the Republican base and senators. Just as his endorsement in Senate elections has become critical for GOP candidates, Trumpâs backing in a leadership contest could prove decisive.
If thatâs the case, Thuneâwho many consider to be the frontrunnerâmay have some problems. Heâs another vocal supporter of Ukraine aid, and he has never been a huge fan of Trump, so much so that he previously faced primary threats from the former presidentâs camp. (Thune even held out on endorsing Trump until it almost became politically untenable; he finally bowed to the electoral reality this week by endorsing Trumpâs 2024 campaign on Sunday.)
But a senior GOP leadership aide told The Daily Beast Wednesday night that leadership races are always âweird.â
âTrumpâs support would definitely help with some senators, but it cuts the other way too,â this aide said. âIt probably helps more than it hurts, but this is a closed-door, secret ballot election. Itâs really not like some local primary where everyone is waiting to hear from Trump.â
The aide continued that, âat the end of the day,â you need about 25 senators to support you. âEither Cornyn or Thune could probably get there with or without Trumpâs endorsement,â this person said.
While a host of senators may jump into the race, the initial wisdom on Capitol Hill Wednesday was that it was largely a two-person race between Thune and Cornynâand between the two, it could go either way.
âCornyn was probably the clear successor two years ago,â a senior GOP aide said. âItâs not as clear anymore.â
Cornyn, often sought out by reporters for a candid quote, is perhaps best positioned to continue McConnellâs playbook of sharp-elbowed legislative and campaign tactics. He has served as a committee chairman and twice chaired the Senate GOPâs campaign arm.
However, the Texas Republican has faced blowback from the GOP base for his occasional inclination toward dealmaking, most recently in 2022, when he worked with Democrats to pass a modest gun reform package.
That reputation could hurt Cornyn with conservatives, but it again could cut both ways. Some senators want to make deals. Some donât. But thereâs likely a third group who donât want to publicly support bipartisan wheeling and dealing while privately understanding the need for it.
Barrasso is seen as the most partisan of the three Johns, leading messaging against Democrats for several years as the Conference chairman. He was also the first of the three to endorse Trump in 2024, which was no surprise given his historically solid support for the former president.
While Barrasso may be the longshot of the trio of Johns, heâs by no means out of the race, particularly if he can convince conservativesâor Trumpâthat heâs their best chance at a real change in leadership.
A candidate like Scott would represent the most radical departure from the McConnell era. The former two-term governor of Florida has served in the Senate for five years, carving out a niche as a leading Trump supporter and hardliner on a number of policy fronts. His combative approachâand much-criticized run as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2022âearned him plenty of enemies on his own side, while Democrats have gleefully held him up as a favorite foil.
Whoever ultimately wins the job, that person will instantly become a bogeyman, both for Democrats and, inevitably, some Republicans.
That reality had finally begun to damage McConnell, who has perhaps done more to implement conservative policiesâboth legislatively and through installing conservatives in the judiciaryâthan any other Republican alive.
On top of his own health struggles and standoffs with Trump, McConnell has increasingly found himself at odds with the mainstream GOP positionânot because he has changed, but because Trump has largely redefined what it means to be a Republican.
As the GOP worked through those changes, McConnell struggled to bring his party together on much of anything. His successor will almost certainly have the same problems.
Even in their early reactions to the succession conversation, GOP senators began to separate themselves along a clear line: whether they wanted continuity with the McConnell reign, or dramatic change.
Asked what kind of qualities he was looking for in a new leader, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA)âthe only senator more senior than McConnellâhad a quick answer.
âMcConnell qualities,â Grassley said. âA long view.â
âI would like somebody like him⌠somebody that kind of looks at the future,â said Sen. John Boozman (R-AR). âI think he did a very, very good job of that.â
To some conservative senators, though, âMcConnell qualitiesâ amount to nothing good.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) said he has been âasking for quite some timeâ for a âmore collaborative conference, one that takes advantage of the talent that we have within our conference.â He also wanted âmore votes about where our positions are so we know exactly what the consensus of the conference is.â
While Johnsonâs calls for GOP consensus are far from a controversial opinion, finding that consensus has been increasingly difficult to find. That difficulty has recently brought McConnell to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). The two worked together to push for Ukraine aid and infrastructure spending, among other things, drawing suspicion from conservatives.
Those pressures came to a head in the days and weeks before McConnellâs announcement. The GOP leaderâs vocal support for providing increased aid to Ukraine put him at odds with MAGA senators like Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Vance. But when Ukraine aid was paired with border enforcement measures in a compromise bill negotiated with McConnellâs blessing, a much wider group of GOP senators revolted, killing the plan.
The saga illustrated the limits that even McConnell began to face in managing his fractious party. No matter what happens in the 2024 elections, his successor is certain to face similar challenges.
Still, Republican senators expressed confidence that the next GOP leader, whoever it is, can follow in McConnellâs footsteps.
âI mean, Mitch, his greatest gift really is probably his political instinct,â said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND). âAnd then he has patience, and the ice in his veins that allows him to not be prone to emotion or extremes. And so yeah, I mean, well, we will miss that. But we have a lot of good people that can step up and do the job. I'm confident.â