A nickname change is usually a sign of trouble in Donald Trump’s world.
As Nikki Haley rises in the polls, some of the former president’s allies have shifted from calling his former ambassador to the United Nations “birdbrain” to attacking her as “high tax Haley.” That’s the theme of a new pro-Trump super PAC attack ad, marking the MAGA operation’s first anti-Haley spending in the GOP presidential primary.
Even though Haley has shown little appetite to take on her old boss directly, her campaign is gearing up for things to get ugly. That the opening salvo happened to be an ad about a non-existent South Carolina gas tax hike is inconsequential, according to those close to the Haley campaign and other plugged-in Republicans looking to support her as the Trump alternative.
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In fact, the Haley camp is proud to be a target.
“Everyone from Joe Biden to Donald Trump is attacking Nikki for one reason: She’s the only candidate with momentum,” a senior Haley adviser told The Daily Beast.
While Trump’s attacks carry a certain sway over the GOP, every new ad is also something of a confession, making it clear who Trump views as his main rival. And that could potentially help Haley consolidate the anti-Trump vote.
That’s a big reason the Trump operation has been hesitant to go after any one candidate too much, preferring to criticize all of them in seemingly haphazard attacks. But Haley’s recent surge in New Hampshire—a December poll had her within the margin of error in the first-in-the-nation primary—has clearly gotten under Trumpworld’s skin, threatening the long-held certitude that the former president can coast to the nomination without having to engage in a real campaign.
Which is why Trump and his advisers are trying to crush Haley now, before she gathers serious momentum.
In the final weeks of 2023, the Trump campaign and its allies finally began enacting their long-dormant plans to destroy Haley. While Trump and his advisers continue to project confidence that Haley is just a small speed bump on their road to the nomination, his MAGA political surrogates seem to see her as a more significant hazard.
In the last two weeks, MAGA Inc. has spent $3.4 million to run the gas tax ad against Haley, supplemented with nearly $370,000 worth of anti-Haley mailers and text messages for good measure, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. The New Hampshire ad, which first aired on Dec. 19 and was produced for $11,000, marks the first time the Trump super PAC has spent money to go after Haley. By comparison, MAGA Inc. has only deployed around $2 million against DeSantis in New Hampshire, efforts that stopped cold in May.
The subject of the ad itself also demonstrates how seriously Trumpworld takes the threat—at least in New Hampshire. The new ad is a deep cut, dinging Haley over the South Carolina gas tax, of all things. The spot highlights her alleged flip-flop on a promise she made as governor not to raise the gas tax in her state—an attack that the Haley campaign, as well as Politifact and media outlets, have called false and misleading.
Of course, the attack isn’t coming from nowhere. In September, Haley proposed a repeal of the 18 cents per gallon federal gas tax, and the misleading claims about her alleged hypocrisy began almost immediately. The DeSantis-aligned “Fight Right” super PAC also saw the proposal as attack ad fodder, running an anti-Haley spot—which Politifact labeled “mostly false”—about two weeks before MAGA Inc. went up with its ad. For whatever reason, it seems that Haley’s opponents have landed on this issue as the easiest opening in the weeks before voting starts.
True to Trump’s addiction to projecting, the former president himself backed a 25 cent increase to the federal gas tax in a failed effort to get his much-hyped infrastructure bill passed—remember “Infrastructure Week”?—which the Haley campaign has been ready to point out ever since the ads dropped.
Asked about the super PAC’s choice to make the gas tax its first line of attack, the Haley campaign was puzzled.
“I have no idea. You’d have to ask them,” the Haley adviser said. “Seems weird given the fact checks on it and Trump’s own vulnerability.”
But there seems to be good reason for Trump’s shift from “birdbrain” to “high tax Haley,” even as Haley made one of her worst gaffes of the campaign.
For one, Trump’s original attack didn’t appear to be resonating, at least not in the way that he had hoped. For another, Trump has long had problems with female Republicans. The “birdbrain” attack seemed to be yet another misogynist critique that suggested Haley was an airhead simply because she’s a woman. That proved to be a real problem for Trump, as the same December survey that put Haley within striking distance also revealed she had the support of 35 percent of female GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, compared to Trump’s 26 percent.
But it remains to be seen whether Trump and his allies will harness the latest anti-Haley fodder.
About a week after the “high tax Haley” ads rolled out, Haley made a significant stumble when answering a question from a New Hampshire voter about the cause of the Civil War: She forgot to mention the word slavery.
While that would seem like an embarrassing mistake in a GOP primary, and not a death blow, Haley’s clean-up attempts made matters worse.
“This is Gary Johnson’s ‘What is Aleppo?’ moment on steroids,” a GOP strategist close to Trumpworld told The Daily Beast, referring to the 2016 Libertarian nominee’s infamous flameout on MSNBC’s Morning Joe when asked about the Syrian city at the epicenter of an ongoing refugee crisis.
“The difference is,” the Republican continued, “a lot of voters don’t actually know what Aleppo is. Everyone knows what slavery was.”
A former Trump administration official willing to break ranks and support Haley told The Daily Beast that the fallout may have been worse than the actual remarks. After the initial exchange, Haley accused the voter of being a Democratic “plant” simply because he wouldn’t reveal his name—even though that’s relatively common for town hall Q&As in the Live Free or Die state.
“Every candidate makes mistakes, and it’s a question of how you recover,” said this former Trump administration official, who is now considering supporting Haley. “This wasn’t the biggest mistake, but how she’s recovered has, at best, been inept.”
A source close to the Trump campaign emphasized the moment was a big deal, but they didn’t say whether it would galvanize any criticism from Trump—who has himself also recast commonly understood Civil War dynamics, and who caters to a base notoriously friendly to white nationalists and Confederate sympathizers.
“Just like Joe Biden, she’s a scripted puppet,” this Trump source said, implying that Haley runs a risk when she speaks off the cuff.
The source went on to compare Haley’s gaffe to DeSantis depicting slavery as a workforce development program. In Trumpian fashion, they lumped the former U.N. ambassador and Florida governor together as “pretenders” who aren’t ready for “prime time.”
“And it shows every time they deviate from their scripted remarks,” the source close to the Trump campaign said.
The former president himself has mocked “the Nikki surge” as non-existent in the same holiday direct-to-video message where he called Chris Christie “dogmeat” and demanded the rest of the field drop out and “unify” behind him to defeat President Joe Biden.
The looming clash between Haley and Trump might also go some distance towards muffling the chatter about Haley being an eventual VP pick—a favored talking point lately for both Christie and DeSantis. When the primary dust clears, there may not be much of a relationship left between the two. And sources close to both campaigns told The Daily Beast that no corner of their records will be off limits.
Some of the loudest voices in Trumpworld remain highly skeptical of Haley as a running mate. Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist in the White House, called her “a viper” on a podcast this Sunday.
“If Nikki Haley is in this administration in any capacity, it will fail,” Bannon said, comparing her to former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley attends a Lady Hawkeyes Tailgate campaign event in Coralville, Iowa.
Rachel Mummey/ReutersYet for Republicans desperate for a viable Trump alternative, questions linger over whether Haley is truly committed to that fight in 2024, or whether she’s laying the groundwork for a more forceful run in the future.
Stuart Stevens, the lead strategist for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign and an outspoken Never Trump Republican, said he’s not convinced Haley—who he described as “a bundle of ambition with no particular purpose”—is ready for a full-bore fight against Trump.
“If you are rational inside the Haley campaign,” Stevens told The Daily Beast, “this is really a race about ’28 and not ’24.”
Stevens said what’s missing from the opening blows of Trump vs. Haley is more telling.
“Negative ads work best when they introduce new information, so they’re opening up a front on her record as governor,” he noted. At the same time, the veteran GOP strategist also pointed out the primary field’s comparative toothlessness, emphasizing how much the twice-impeached Trump has benefited from the kid-gloves approach.
“It’s all an extension of standing on stage in a race against someone who has 91 counts of indictment against them, and you don’t talk about that,” Stevens said. “I mean, it’s absurd.”
Obviously there has yet to be a debate between Haley and Trump, given the former president’s decision to skip all of them. But both Stevens and the former Trump White House official said the contours of the emerging Trump-Haley showdown don’t bode well for the future of the party.
“At the heart of this is a lack of any real policy in the Republican Party,” Stevens said. “There’s nothing new here. There’s no theory of conservative government. What are the principles here?”
For instance, Stevens argued, Haley can’t say that her campaign is about the constitution, “because she said she’d support someone who tried to subvert the constitution.”
“It’s just a very confused candidacy,” he said. “She’s running because she would really like to be president. That’s OK, but it’s not a particularly compelling reason for anyone else to vote for her.”
Instead of high-minded principles, the ex-Trump official said the new name of the game is “an attitude posture” which seems to resonate with GOP primary voters.
“They clearly don’t know how to hit her,” the Trump appointee said of his former boss’ campaign and PAC. “She stubbed her own toe on the Civil War stuff, and it goes to this notion that the Republican Party is not looking to policy, but more of an attitude posture. It’s all about attitude and swagger. Can you take a punch and throw it right back?”
Haley won’t gain any ground criticizing Trump’s shortcomings in the policy realm, the Trump alum argued, and his fitness for office is off the table simply because his voters “don’t seem to want to hear it.”
Instead, Haley will have to find another way.
“I am unconvinced you need to become a monster to defeat a monster,” the former Trump official continued. “If this was a race of who could take it to Donald Trump best, Chris Christie would be winning.”
