“All politics is local,” former House Speaker Tip O’Neill famously declared and rarely was that more true than in Tuesday’s midterm elections. For all the focus on high-profile Senate races in Pennsylvania and Georgia and the still undecided race for the House, races for governor and local state officers provided perhaps the most compelling insight into the mood of the American people—a preference for competence over intense partisanship.
While all the votes still need to be counted, it appears that only one sitting governor lost their seat—Democrat Steve Sisolak in Nevada. In Massachusetts and Maryland, two seats flipped as voters went from term-limited moderate Republicans to Democratic candidates. While the ballots are still being counted in Arizona, Democrat Katie Hobbs, the secretary of state, looks as though she will narrowly hold off former TV anchorwoman and 2020 election denier Kari Lake (another potential flip from red to blue for Democrats).
But overall, it was a great night for incumbents—of all political persuasions. In Vermont, one of the bluest states in the country, Republican Gov. Phil Scott won another term by 47 points, while at the same time, Democrat Peter Welch won an open seat for U.S. Senate by 40 points. A similar dynamic played out in neighboring New Hampshire, where Republican Gov. Chris Sununu coasted to re-election, even as Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan easily won reelection.
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In ruby-red Kansas, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly won another four-year term, and incumbent Republican Sen. Jerry Moran beat his overmatched Democratic opponent by 23 points. In Georgia, Herschel Walker narrowly trailed incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, but notably fared five points worse than his GOP ticket mate, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp. Elsewhere, big state governors like Ron DeSantis in Florida, Mike DeWine in Ohio, Greg Abbott in Texas, J.B. Pritzker in Illinois, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, and Gavin Newsom in California each won double-digit-sized re-election victories.
For the vast majority of voters, it seems, partisanship was no match for experience and know-how—even if it meant splitting their ticket between Democrats and Republicans.
Elsewhere, far-right gubernatorial candidates fared especially poorly. In Pennsylvania, a race to replace the term-limited Gov. Tom Wolf was easily won by Democrat Josh Shapiro over MAGA-embracing, election-denying, and, potentially, abortion-criminalizing Doug Mastriano. In Maryland, after eight years of GOP control of the governor’s mansion, the Trump-endorsed Republican nominee, Dan Cox, lost by a whopping 27 points to Democrat Wes Moore. In Wisconsin, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won a new four-year term by beating Tim Michels, yet another Trump-endorsed election denier.
Perhaps the most extreme candidate for state office, Kari Lake, is on the cusp of defeat (as votes continue to be counted in Arizona). While Lake was flashier, telegenic, and more effective with a soundbite in comparison to her buttoned-down opponent, it seems that her abrasive public personae, extreme positions, and unapologetic election denialism were too much of a turnoff for Arizona voters. Or, perhaps, voters just preferred the workhorse to the show horse.
Gubernatorial candidates are not like Senate or House aspirants. If they’re not up to the job, voters will not only figure it out quickly—they are likely to feel it too. A senator is one out of a hundred. A governor has to do stuff, like manage an entire state government.
It hardly seems accidental that after the COVID pandemic, which tested the nation’s governors like few other public officials, voters were more interested in competence and experience at the helm of state government rather than ideology and intense partisanship.
In the months after the beginning of COVID, governors saw a near-universal spike in approval ratings (ironically, the only one to see their numbers initially go down was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis). Two years later, it appears that voters gave them a delayed thanks at the voting booth, or at the very least, realized the dangers of turning over the keys to state government to less-than-qualified candidates.
Notably, one of the few big state governors to underperform was New York’s Kathy Hochul, who eked out a narrow five-point victory. However, she took office in 2021, after the worst part of the pandemic had passed—and after much of the credit for the state’s response went to her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo.
And it wasn’t just at the top of state government. For the GOP’s election deniers running for secretary of state positions on Tuesday, it was a rough night. They all lost in the six pivotal battleground states where Trump tried to have the 2020 election results overturned.
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, it appears that voters flipped key state legislative chambers from red to blue (in Michigan, both the House and Senate switched, and in Pennsylvania, just the state assembly, though the outcome is still pending). In both states the state GOP has been taken over by the party’s extremist wing. In Arizona—a once solidly red state, but one in which the GOP has increasingly adopted the conspiratorial thinking of the far-right—Democrats appear poised to win four major statewide elections—senator, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general. In fact, across the country, Democrats didn’t lose a single state legislative chamber this election. That has not happened to an incumbent party in 88 years.
This might be the most positive outcome of the 2022 election. After years of seemingly intractable political polarization, just enough voters took a deep breath this Election Day and rejected the candidates who are not only undermining American democratic institutions but doing the most to divide Americans. That’s good news for Democrats…but also great news for democracy.
