The Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military corporation filled with mercenaries and led by ignoble billionaire Yevgeny Prigozhin, entered the American consciousness with Vladimir Putin’s Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Even more people came to know them when Prigozhin staged a short-lived mutiny where his forces briefly took the city of Rostov in southwestern Russia. Putin was able to end the mutiny without any damage, except to his fearsome reputation.
Since then, Wagner fighters in the region have turned over their arms to the Russian military and have avoided being imprisoned or executed for their role in the mutiny. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has stated the paramilitary groups would train the Belarusian military)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.foxnews.com/world/wagner-mercenaries-train-belarusian-military-lukashenko-says__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGG3OiEBw$">train the Belarusian military in weapons and tactics.
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What’s less discussed about the Wagner Group is their activities in other parts of the world—namely war-torn areas in the Middle East and Africa.
Wagner is known to have operated in many areas throughout the African continent, including Chad, Libya, Central African Republic, and Mali. (There are unconfirmed rumors they may be invited into Burkina Faso)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/05/02/should-we-worry-about-the-wagner-group-in-chad/__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGPJsxMIx$">may be invited into Burkina Faso by its new military leadership.)
Many believe that Wagner’s purpose is not only to extract key valuable resources from the mineral and oil-rich continent, but to extend Russia’s diplomatic influence by supporting a bloc of African states)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.cfr.org/blog/united-states-should-not-play-russias-game-africa__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGJWIxMRv$">supporting a bloc of African states militarily. With the whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-likely-isnt-dead-former-us-general-2023-7__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGPKpDHWk$">whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin unknown and the status of Wagner unclear, their presence in these volatile areas present potentially grave security risks. In other words, having heavily armed soldiers of fortune open to the highest bidder and untethered to any nation-state in regions where human rights abuses are already common is incredibly dangerous.
Russia has assured some African leaders that they would not lose their fighting forces)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.thenation.com/article/world/wagner-mutiny-military-africa/__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGIBGxglJ$">not lose their fighting forces. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has promised the leadership in African nations like Chad and Mali that the “work will continue.” Russia extracts valuable resources from Africa as a result of Wagner’s presence.
However, questions remain about whether the loyalties of Wagner mercenaries are split between the Kremlin and Prigozhin. Though it has been reported that Prigozhin and Putin met in person)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-school-crime-6e6e5eee6e9166fb755eafea64246222__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGNvClk4x$">Prigozhin and Putin met in person days after the attempted mutiny—and more than likely worked out a deal for control of the Wagner Group—it is unclear how the mercenaries who are thousands of miles from the Kremlin feel about it.
Even if Putin is in charge, his image as a strongman was severely weakened by the mutiny attempt itself. Whether the Wagner mercenaries will accept his leadership without Prigozhin is anyone's guess.
Retired U.S. four-star General Robert Abrams told ABC News that he believes that Prigozhin is already dead)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://nypost.com/2023/07/12/us-general-doubts-yevgeny-prizgozhin-is-alive/__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGJ3Po8gC$">Prigozhin is already dead and that the meeting between him and Putin was faked. While there’s no evidence to back up this assumption at the time, were it to be true, it’s unclear how Wagner mercenaries would accept their leader and cofounder being killed by the Russian state. The potential for desertion or illicit weapon sales rises as morale plummets.
Wagner already has a presence in the Central African Republic (CAR), a state whose political atmosphere was described by the United Nations as “fragile)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15328.doc.htm__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGBWjtjhT$">fragile.” Religious-based sectarian violence has been commonplace since its independence in 1960. A Muslim rebel group called Seleka)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violence-central-african-republic__;!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGKzl0Q3Y$">Seleka led a successful coup in late 2012. Seleka was disbanded soon after it gained control of Bangui, but violence between its former members and Christian “anti-balaka” fighters has continued. Both groups have since splintered off, causing more confusion and violence.
The Wagner Group has helped the CAR government to put down and deter insurgency efforts by these rebel factions. The CAR is one of the poorest nations in the world, with 71 percent of its population below the poverty line)" href="https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/centralafricanrepublic/overview*:*:text=The*20Central*20African*20Republic*20remains,*2C*20in*20terms*20of*20PPP).__;I34lJSUlJSUlJSU!!LsXw!V3HoWa93Bx-dW8ArbjJCACzy91kbok5BDKQZz1Mltgg0_PaeRpyyyVgUk5VZTOyRUm_hQGuPO4tDGDs6kDfG$">71 percent of its population below the poverty line, but is home to an abundance of natural resources including oil, gold, and diamonds.
While it appears that some Wagner forces have left the country on planes, the government of CAR has said that these are rotations, and indicated that Wagner still has some structure despite the nebulous chain of command in Prigozhin’s absence. What is unclear is if CAR officials are bluffing about Wagner personnel rotations in order to deter the insurgents from mounting an offensive.
If remaining Wagner mercenaries do not have a clear chain of command, or divided loyalties, or even lower morale since the removal of Prigozhin, they are more susceptible to offers from CAR’s many ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups. (It is believed by the UN and human rights organizations that both ex-Seleka and anti-balaka groups have committed war crimes.)
Countries like CAR and Chad were violent and unstable and prone to coup attempts long before the arrival of Wagner. The west’s contributions to less stability and security in Africa also predate Russia and Wagner.
However, the potential human cost of an unstable mercenary group like Wagner in countries that are already struggling with Boko Haram and sectarian warring factions is very high.
While the world is rightly focused upon the unjust invasion of Ukraine, we must not lose sight of how the fallout could affect Africa and its people. We see how the developed world and its media has prioritized the lives of Ukrainians, it’s time they show the same regard for Black African lives.
