This article is part of an Elections 2018 package for Beast Inside members only. Join now to enjoy our special midterms coverage, including an exclusive elections poll and more!
This summer the blue wave became the talk of the nation’s political class, but now many Democrats are tempering that optimism and are just hoping to squeak away with the bare minimum 23 seats they need to recapture the House.
The energy seems to have shifted in part because of the bruising battle over now-Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which appears to have revved up the conservative base at just the right moment. President Trump is helping keep that energy alive by going into full campaign mode, where he’s lobbing red meat to his base in key states. While the president may be lying about things like there being riots over sanctuary cities in California (there are no riots, people!) or a new tax plan (there’s no new tax plan, folks!), his base doesn’t seem to care and looks to be heeding his call to counter what may now just be a blue ripple coming towards the swamp.
ADVERTISEMENT
Still, a lot can happen in a day in this political climate, and if you’re on eggshells over the election, here’s a guide we compiled to help you track the races that matter.
California
There are a whopping seven congressional races that analysts are closely watching across California, and all of the seats are currently held by Republicans. Two of those incumbents threw in the towel and are retiring (Reps. Darrell Issa of Fast and Furious fame and Ed Royce of no real fame at all, though he chairs the Foreign Affairs Committee). Nationwide there are more than 30 seats like those, ones that have no incumbent on the ballot, which only boosts Democrats’ chances in a midterm election year where historic trends show the decks stacked against the president’s party, let alone this president.
But these California House contests are in no way a lock for Democrats, because while the state as a whole is progressive, these contested races are for long-held Republican seats in the red areas of the sprawling state. Here are the two main races to watch here:
Down in Orange County’s 48th District, Democrats are getting giddy at the thought of ousting 15-term incumbent and Trump-ally Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, who has been dubbed “Putin’s favorite congressman.” He’s being challenged by Democrat Harley Rouda, a businessman who has been active in politics in the district. This race may be an outlier, because Rohrabacher is so loathed by Democratic activists that they’ve sent Rouda more than $5.7 million—an obscene total for a House race by all accounts—compared to the $2.1 the incumbent has raised. Still, it’s neck and neck, which is a part of the reason Democrats are expecting a late election night.
Up in the Central Valley’s 10th District, four-term incumbent Republican Jeff Denham is being challenged by Josh Harder. Harder’s a venture capitalist—a job that, in the past, Republicans loved (cue Mitt Romney stage right), but in this cycle the party seems to have lost its collective memory so Denham’s camp is painting Harder as an evil money-grabber hiding in the valley. It’s seats like this that Democrats need if they hope to be the ones controlling the gavels on Capitol Hill in 2019.
Florida
In many parts of the country, the phrase ‘October surprise’ means bracing for an election-eve sex scandal—but in Florida this year, that surprise was Hurricane Michael, which unleashed devastation across the panhandle. While the effort to the restore the region is still just underway in many communities, the storm’s had an impact on many of the state contests. Numerous candidates had to halt their campaigns to deal with the tragedy, especially in the big statewide races here.
After the storm hit in mid-October, Trump ally and controversial Republican Gov. Rick Scott indefinitely suspended his Senate campaign, but that didn’t last long and he was quickly back up on air with a telling ad claiming he’s all about safeguarding Obamacare’s protections for people with pre-existing conditions. Democrats, including the incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, aren’t buying that after Florida tossed its weight behind a Trump administration challenge to those very same pre-existing conditions Scott now claims to love. Keep an eye on that issue beyond this race, but it’s Florida so there are a lot of health-care voters here.
The storm also dusted up the race for the governor’s mansion here, especially because a mere week after the Category 4 storm swept through this region, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, was able to announce power had been restored to 99 percent of his city—a #BFD for anyone vying for the governor’s mansion. On the Republican side, after Trump tried to tilt the scales in favor of his primary opponent, three-term Congressman Ron DeSantis is now in Trump’s crosshairs for daring to question the president’s dubious assertion that Democrats inflated the death tolls in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. Additionally, racial politics are playing a big role in this race, which is already historic because Gillum is the first African-American to ever be nominated by a major party to run for governor in the state.
Latino voters are key to many Florida contests, especially in the five or so hotly-contested House races raging across the Sunshine State this cycle. That’s certainly the case in the Miami area, where you should keep your eye on the 26th District, which is currently held by Republican Carlos Curbelo (who we profiled here). He’s facing a challenge from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, an immigrant who has spent her career in the non-profit sector.
Georgia
The governor’s race in this southern state has also become a hotbed for racial politics, and not just because Stacey Abrams would become the nation’s first African-American female governor if elected. The racial tensions boiling here have now become an issue with the state voter rolls.
Abrams’ opponent is Brian Kemp, who is also Georgia’s secretary of state. That means he’s overseeing the very election whose outcome may very well hinge on his own controversial decision to purge tens of thousands of voters from the states eligible voter lists. Oh, and most of those voters, or potentially former voters, are black. The purge has only heightened the racial tension in this former Confederate state that some residents seem to feel is still in the Confederacy.
Iowa
While most of the House seats Democrats are trying to pick up this cycle are on the coasts, middle America still matters and will be very telling as to whether this election is a wave or a whimper. That’s especially the case in Iowa, because back in 2010, the census dropped the state from five to just four congressional seats, so there’s currently only one Democrat representing the state.
Democrats’ best chance here is the 1st District, which President Obama won twice but which is currently held by second-term Republican Rod Blum. He’s being challenged by Democratic Abby Finkenauer, who is a young state House member. She’s made family and women’s issues a centerpiece of this race.
Over to the west, analysts will also be watching the race for the 3rd District, which includes Des Moines, the most metropolitan city in the state. That contest is pitting second-term incumbent Republican David Young against Democrat Cindy Axne, a small business owner. While not as sexy as other races nationwide, contests like these are key to knowing what Congress will look like in 2019. If Republicans are able to hold on to them, it portends good things ahead for the president in the New Year.
Kentucky
After two years of protesting while watching Trump and the GOP slowly dismantle Obama’s legislative legacy, Democrats are itching to make this election sting. And pulling off a win in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s home state would make many in the party cheer from coast to coast.
Republican incumbent Rep. Andy Barr is putting his law degree, three years in the House and his pro-coal bona fides up against Amy McGrath, who served as a Marine in Iraq and Afghanistan, where she became the first woman ever to fly a F-18 Hornet in combat. While Trump’s made coal country his pet project, he’s also courted veterans and active-duty military at every turn. So a McGrath win would send a shock wave through the White House, which is why this is one of the hottest contests to watch.
Texas
Texas may be the new Illinois, circa 1860. Back then one-term congressman Abraham Lincoln used his failed Senate bid in his home state to propel himself into the White House. While three-term Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke may be no Lincoln, his challenge of Sen. Ted Cruz has propelled him onto the national stage in a way that’s surely turned the heads of his fellow Democrats who are eyeing White House bids in 2020—especially when he hauled in a record $38 million in one fundraising quarter.
After this fall’s Supreme Court battle enlivened conservatives, O’Rourke has dropped in the polls, but he hasn’t backed down from his progressive stances in this conservative state. While his recent slump in the polls has many analysts discounting his chances of winning his Senate, it’s also solidified the former rocker as a rock star to many progressives from coast to coast.
And there are also some House races to watch in the Lone Star state. Democrats are itching to oust Rep. Pete Sessions in the 32nd District. He chairs the little-known but powerful Rules Committee, which controls House floor debates—a perch he’s used to help Speaker Ryan ram an ultra-conservative agenda through the chamber. He’s being challenged by former NFL linebacker and civil-rights attorney Colin Allred. Democrats are also watching the race in the 23rd District, where Iraq War veteran Gina Ortiz Jones is taking on two-term Rep. Will Hurd; and they’re hoping Sri Preston Kulkarni can oust five-term incumbent Pete Olsen in the 22nd District.
The Northeast
From Pennsylvania through New Jersey and New York and then up to New Hampshire and into Maine, Republicans are testing a theory: Can a slew of lawmakers claim the ‘moderate’ mantle while voting with President Trump most or all of the time? More than 10 of these House contests that mostly traverse the I-95 corridor are being hotly contested because incumbent Republicans voted with Trump on either the Obamacare repeal, the tax reform bill or both. But in five-term Republican Leonard Lance’s case, he voted for neither. Still, like Democrats across the Northeast, Lance’s opponent, human-rights activist Tom Malinowski, is painting him as a rubber stamp for Trump. Meanwhile, Lance and almost all of the other GOP candidates running along this expansive stretch have tried to paint themselves as independent voices. Those cross currents make this one of the hottest stretches of real estate to watch Election Night.
Democrats think their best chances in the I-95 corridor are with Scott Wallace, who is taking on first-term Republican Brian Fitzpatrick just outside of Philadelphia. And they’re also hoping for Rhodes Scholar and Obama-era national security adviser Andrew Kim to oust Rep. Tom MacArthur in New Jersey’s Third District, because he helped salvage both the House effort to repeal Obamacare and the tax overhaul.
Virginia
The year of the woman narrative is being tested in the commonwealth of Virginia. Back in 2016 Hillary Clinton won the state, but Republican Barbara Comstock also won in her northern Virginia district (read: the Washington, D.C. suburb). While Comstock and Hillary both helped prove Virginia was one of the few remaining purple states in the last election, State Sen. Jennifer Wexton is trying to cement the state’s blue status by ousting Comstock in the 10th District.
While Wexton maintains the best chance of wresting a seat from the hands of Republicans here, there are three other Democratic women running in the state and giving their male counterparts a scare. Former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger is challenging incumbent Republican Dave Brat (known for ousting former House Whip Eric Cantor in his primary) in the 7th District, while business owner and former Navy officer Elaine Luria is taking on one-term Republican Scott Taylor in the 2nd District. And in the 5th District Leslie Cockburn, an award-winning investigative journalist, is vying for an open seat against veteran and businessman Denver Riggleman.
If it’s the year of the woman, that year may start in Virginia.
West Virginia
When districts in coal country are in play you know President Trump’s agenda may be in trouble. The open seat in West Virginia’s 3rd is in a district Trump won by a jaw-dropping 49 points. But just as jaw-dropping is that Democratic State Sen. Richard Ojeda has made it a close contest throughout the summer.
The veteran, who is as proud of his tattoos as he is of ushering medical marijuana through the state legislature, has dropped in the polls in the last couple weeks to his Republican opponent Carol Miller. She’s a farmer and state House delegate who is wearing her endorsement from Trump as if it’s a bumper sticker. But Ojeda’s running as an outsider who is willing to stand up to Democratic leaders like Nancy Pelosi at every turn. He’s made combating the opioid crisis that’s devastating his state his number one issue, and it’s resonated.
If Ojeda and other Democrats like him running on the East Coast start to rack up victories early on election night, then get ready for a night of Trump tears. If not, Nancy Pelosi may need that Kleenex box.
