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Thank you to members David White, Ted Kalo, Jason Berman, Jim Stevens, and Les Kruse for your questions about the closest races to watch on election night.
I'd like to know the specific races to watch—the truly close ones (no BS, no spin assessments) that will indicate the overall results. Like watching Ohio in a general election, but with more detail, and more analysis behind it. Have the Trump voters turned, what relative weight does a rural Iowan hold vs. an inner-city New Yorker, etc.—David White
I was just on the campaign trail in upstate New York in District 19, which is home to a brutal contest between incumbent Republican John Faso and Democratic challenger Antonio Delgado. Their contest is unexpectedly close, as are many of the other upstate New York races.
While at a campaign stop in New Paltz, NY, I interviewed the quaint town’s Deputy Mayor K.T. Tobin, a Democratic activist who knows her state’s politics backwards and forwards. She told me, “We don’t need just a blue wave in New York in these districts. We need a blue tsunami. The Democrats might do well across this country but not necessarily here.”
So early on election night keep a close eye on New York races—if some or any of the upstate contests witness Democratic victories, it may be a harbinger that a blue tsunami is coming.
What’s a dark-horse race that could flip Republican to Democrat?—Ted Kalo
Nationwide, there are a handful of these races to keep on your radar, but they’re long shots. Still, officials at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee—the campaign arm for House Democrats—will be keeping their eyes on Carolyn Bourdeaux, who is challenging Rep. Rob Woodall in Georgia’s Seventh District; Elissa Slotkin, who is taking on Michael Bishop in Michigan’s Eighth District; and even Kathleen Williams, who is challenging Greg Gianforte for Montana’s only House seat. So on election night keep your eyes on deep red states that Trump won back in 2016 to get a sense of where the night—and the next two years—are headed.
What are the New York Congressional races that are identified as possible red to blue and the current polling numbers for them?—Jason Berman
Upstate New York is composed of sprawling agricultural districts sprinkled with little liberal enclaves wherever there are big college towns, and right now Republicans hold six of the nine districts that stretch well beyond New York City’s suburbs. The map was independently drawn on purpose to make those districts more representative of the state’s farming communities.
Army veteran Max Rose is facing off against Daniel Donovan in the 11th District; Rhodes Scholar and Harvard-educated lawyer Antonio Delgado is taking on John Faso in the 19th; and in the 21st District community health care worker Tedra Cobb is challenging Elise Stefanik. State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi is making a go at Claudia Tenney in the 22nd; educator Dana Balter is waging a longshot bid against John Katko in the 24th District; and over in the western reaches of the state, Town Supervisor Nate McMurray is taking on embattled Rep. Chris Collins in the 27th District.
And over in Long Island, Perry Gershon is also waging a long-shot bid to unseat First District Rep. Lee Zeldin, but the upstate races seem to be the ones to really watch.
What is your outlook for the Democrats taking control of the House? Also an outlook for the Senate?—Jim Stevens
Donald Trump is now President of the United States. We’ve given up on predictions.
Seriously though, check out FiveThirtyEight.com and Real Clear Politics. Polling and projecting election outcomes isn’t an exact science, but those two seem to have a better record and dispassionate, more realistic way of viewing election potentials than most.
Not sure if you follow Governor's races, but Kristi Noem is running against Billie Sutton [in South Dakota]. I have heard that it was a toss-up. After this Kavanaugh thing, just wondering if that has moved the needle one way or another?—Les Kruse
Some smaller governor’s races are hard to track, because there just aren’t that many polls on them. So the latest poll shows Sutton up by just three. But it was taken at the end of September, so like other races around the nation, it looks like we still have to wait for election night to see how this race truly shakes up.
