Despite recent polls showing the vast majority of Democrats and Democratic- leaning independents do not want him to run, and yet, President Joe Biden is seeking a second term.
The time for any alternative candidate—including one who might be better positioned to take advantage of voter anger over abortion restrictions—to run is evaporating. Still, it is useful to consider the benefits for the country and Democrats of an alternative universe where, pointing to his many accomplishments as president, Biden chooses not to run.
President Biden has recently given powerful speeches about two of the critical issues facing our country.
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The first was about the dangers to our democracy posed by former President Donald Trump and his MAGA movement. Attacking the legitimacy of elections they lose and acting to subvert future elections; attacks on the freedom of the press; accusing the retiring Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of treason and subject to the death penalty; the use of violent rhetoric; and a claim of unchecked power of the president—these are some of the dangers President Biden called out as he urged Democrats, Republicans, and independents to make preservation of our democracy their highest priority.
The second speech focused on the severe threats to our national security caused by the war in the Middle East and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this speech he called for bipartisan support for continued aid to Israel and Ukraine as being in the security interest of the United States.
While the speech about the dangers of Trump was powerful, much of the news coverage instead focused on it as being part of Biden’s reelection strategy. This risks these important warnings being dismissed by some as just politics and part of the Biden-Trump battle for the presidency. And though Biden’s speech about the threats to our national security was generally praised, the growing divisions within the Democratic Party over Israel’s response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks are increasingly viewed through the lens of how Biden’s actions in managing these crises affects his 2024 candidacy.
Wouldn’t the president’s messages have been stronger if he was speaking as our soon to be departing president—giving a speech akin to Washington’s Farewell Address?
There our first president, among other things, warned against political parties being used by “cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men” to foster their own power at the expense of the liberty of the American people.
Indeed, given that the threat to democracy posed by Trump, wouldn’t it be powerful if the current president announced that he was not going to seek reelection, but instead over the next 15 months of his presidency was going to use his bully pulpit to rally the country against this threat, not as a candidate but as an elder statesman who has devoted his entire adult life to serving our country?
If he was not the Democratic candidate for president, wouldn’t he be able to say more persuasively that the danger posed by Trump was not a Republican, Democratic, liberal, or conservative issue, but an issue for all Americans? And if he was not himself a candidate, wouldn’t he more effectively be able to work with like-minded Republicans in making the case that staying engaged in the world is important, while charting the best course for America in Israel and Ukraine without speculation about how his actions fit into his re-election strategy?
If there would be a benefit to the country from the president not running again, there is also a benefit for Democrats. Despite the recent bad polls, Biden still might be able to squeeze out another electoral victory against Trump. But the lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy among voters poses risks to Democrats running in close races.
Someone like me, who supported Joe Biden in his three runs for the White House dating back to 1987, will cast a ballot for him despite the belief that he should not be seeking a second term. But others, including young people, may demonstrate their lack of enthusiasm by following a different path: not voting at all or voting for a potential third-party candidate These voters are at risk of then being lost to Democratic candidates for the House and Senate.
In this alternative universe the Democrats would nominate a “fresh face.”
Democrats have actually fared better with relatively unknown “fresh faces” over the past half-century. Jimmy Carter won in 1976 after having been a one-term governor of Georgia; Bill Clinton won in 1992 as governor of Arkansas; and in 2008 Barack Obama had served less than four years in the Senate.
Despite being relatively unknown and inexperienced, through the primary process they were ultimately able to convince the voters that they were up to the job and to generate the positive energy so important to campaigns. Vice Presidents Humphrey, Mondale, and Gore, long-time Sens. McGovern and Kerry, and former senator, secretary of state and first lady Hillary Clinton did not fare so well as presidential candidates.
Joe Biden is running for re-election. But in an alternative universe, where he was not a candidate, the country and the Democrats could be well-served.
