Move over swing voters, independents, NASCAR dads, and soccer moms. So-called “double-haters” might be the most important voting bloc this year.
In case you missed the memo, “double-haters” are voters who don’t like either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. This is an emerging cohort that many of us can identify with (although I try not to venture into “hate” territory).
Every year, we are treated to a plethora of news stories about undecided voters. You know the cliché: people who are socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Because these voters (who somehow manage to make it through life without picking a team) are persuadable, they get a ton of ink and disproportionate attention from politicians. If you like receiving voter mail, tell a canvasser you’re not sure which candidate you like—but that you definitely plan on voting.
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Well, double-haters are undecided voters on steroids—at least, in terms of their size. Generally speaking, undecided voters constitute around 10 percent of voters nationwide, while double-haters constitute a whopping 19 percent, or nearly one-fifth of the electorate, according to three separate, respected polls. Obviously, these disaffected voters are likely to have a major say in choosing our next president.
To be sure, this isn’t an entirely new phenomenon. This category of voters has been making waves since Trump came down that escalator. What is more, based on recent history, as go double-haters, so goes the nation.
In 2016, these voters broke for Trump. In 2020, they went with Biden. In both cases, they pinned their hopes on the challenger candidate. But this year, both candidates are effectively incumbents.
So who will benefit most from this phenomenon in 2024? With a million variables, it’s dangerous to hazard a guess. And you can find polling or theories to back up a claim that either candidate has the edge with these voters. For example, according to a recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College, Biden leads Trump by double digits among double-haters.
On the other hand, according to another recent survey by Marquette Law School polls, when double-haters are forced to choose one of the two candidates, Trump narrowly wins. (Keep in mind that many of these double-haters are Republicans or Democrats who are simply unhappy with the candidate their party has chosen.)
Still, if you put a gun to my head, I would give Biden the slight edge to win double-haters and, therefore, the election. That’s because, when push comes to shove, Trump is easier to hate.
Despite polls that clearly show voters are frustrated with Biden, it’s also hard for me to imagine that he can evoke the intense hatred inspired by other candidates like Hillary Clinton or Trump.
What is more, it’s probably easier to stay mad at Trump. Not only are his words and actions more egregious, they’re also harder to avoid.
Trump sucks up all the oxygen in the room. Every election is, in some way or another, about Trump. As we get closer to Election Day, one assumes that the majority of news stories, controversies, and scandals will be about him.
While it may be possible for Biden to temporarily go dormant, it’s hard to imagine Trump stringing together more than a few days below the radar—even if he knows that would be the smart political move.
Again, though, there are too many variables for me to be confident in this forecast. For example, my theory assumes the election will be a binary choice. It might not be. As such, it’s vital for Biden that double-haters do not have a strong third-party candidate to choose from, especially in key states that could swing the electoral college.
Regardless of who ultimately wins or loses (with the double-haters and the election), the rise of this cohort is significant because of what it says about the sad state of modern American politics.
Despite the negative connotation their name might conjure, it’s not fair to assume that double-haters are particularly angry or mean-spirited. Instead, they are simply unhappy because they are dissatisfied with the two presumptive nominees.
For years now, American voters have been lamenting having to choose between “the lesser of two evils.” It’s taken us a while to get there, but we now have a label that accurately describes the political vibe that is the year 2024.
